The Rule of Five: Why the Miami Heat Will Be Tough To Beat

There are many ways to compare teams in an effort to divine who would win in a series matchup.  While complex statistical analyses are valuable, I prefer a simple test that I call "The Rule of Five."

Here's how it works.

In comparing two teams, rank the five best players from the combined rosters.  The team with three (or more) of those five players will typically win the series.

Take, for example, the Miami Heat's matchup against the Boston Celtics in round one of the playoffs last year.  The top player on either roster was Dwyane Wade.  The next four, however, were all Celtics: Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce (rank those four in whatever order you wish). 

The outcome?

The Celtics won the series easily (4-1), and the Heat's only win came in a game in which Wade scored 46 points.

Another good example is the Lakers/Celtics finals matchup.  The top player in the series was Kobe Bryant.  Beyond that, it is tough to rank the next four.  Would it be Gasol, Garnett, Pierce and Artest?  Pierce, Gasol, Rondo and Odom? 

In that case, the Rule of Five correctly predicted a very close series and, in the end, the fact that Gasol and Artest played as well as they did probably was the difference (giving the Lakers three of the top five players in the series).

So how does the Rule of Five apply to the Heat's new lineup?

One could argue that the Heat will have the first, second, and third best players against most of the league. 

How about the best of the Eastern Conference?

Against Boston, Wade and LeBron James are the best two players.  Do the Celtics have three players who are better than Chris Bosh?  I don't think so.

How about Chicago?  Again, Wade and James are the top two.  I can buy that Derrick Rose is the third best player among the two teams.  No.'s 4 and 5, though, are Bosh and Boozer.  Whatever order you rank them in, the Heat have three of the top five.

Finally, there's Orlando.  The top five: Wade, James (or James, then Wade, if you prefer), Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh and probably Rashard Lewis.

Even when you look at the World Champion Lakers, it seems that the Heat have the advantage.  The top three players on either team, ranked in no particular order, are Bryant, James and Wade.  The next two?  Probably Bosh and Gasol (again, the order does not matter).

What about depth, you inquire.

Well, depth is important.  I acknowledge that, right now, if you ranked the top seven players, rather than the top five, the Heat might be on the short end of the analysis against the Lakers and Celtics, and maybe even the Magic and Bulls.

But, as much as depth matters, NBA basketball is, and always has been, a game that is dominated by the top players.  That's why, in the end, the Rule of Five works.

While it might take a year for the pieces to come together as a whole, in the long run, this Miami Heat team will prove that the Rule of Five is as good a tool of prognostication as any.