State of the UFC: Lightweights

With the year half over and the next UFC card still a few weeks away, now is the perfect time to take a look at what is going on in the five different divisions.

This article will attempt to give a good impression of how the divisional title pictures look, and how different fighters factor into the equation.

The Champ

Frank Edgar shocked the world (and punters) by defeating BJ Penn in a closely contested fight. By defeating Penn, Edgar saved the legitimacy of the lightweight division. More on that when we get to Penn...

Edgar is scheduled to rematch Penn next month, and once again, the betting sites have Edgar listed as a pretty big underdog at +250.

The Challenger

With the way people had talked about BJ Penn, one would think that he'd successfully defended the lightweight title 10 times, as opposed to the actual three. People were already saying that Penn is unbeatable at lightweight, and that the only challenges available for him were at welterweight.

Had Penn defeated Edgar in the same dominant fashion he defeated Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez, he likely would have vacated the lightweight title in pursuit of another shot at his own personal Moby Dick, Georges St. Pierre.

When Edgar defeated Penn, he shattered the idea of Penn's invincibility.  Even though many (myself included) felt like Penn did enough to retain the title, Penn's loss showed that we were too quick to brand Penn as unbeatable, and that while his talent is undeniable, his motivation and conditioning are probably always going to be question marks.

If Penn regains his title, he'll now still be required to defend his belt at least a few more times before even thinking about moving up to welterweight.

The No. 1 Contender Match

The next contender will presumably come from the upcoming bout between Gray Maynard and Kenny Florian, though that may be contingent upon a few things.

The bout between Florian and Maynard will most likely involve Maynard trying to grind down Florian as Florian attempts to pick apart Maynard from the outside.

In a five-round fight, I'd give Florian an edge because of conditioning, but because it's a three-round fight, it may come down to one or two scrambles.

If Gray Maynard wins, he'll almost certainly get a title shot. A title shot opposite Edgar would have a built-in storyline as Maynard is the only loss on Edgar's record.

Despite notching the victory in the first fight, I'd favor Edgar in the rematch, because I think he's improved more out of the two fighters, and I think that if he can keep the fight close early, he can start to out-work Maynard in the later rounds.

I'd also favor Penn over Maynard, as Maynard has occasionally struggled on the ground against BJ threats, and isn't going to out-work Penn the way Edgar did.

A third title shot for Florian may depend on the result of the Edgar vs. Penn rematch.  Penn dominated Florian a year ago, so a rematch this soon after may not be the most marketable option.

Should both Edgar and Florian prevail in their upcoming bouts, I'd expect Florian to earn the title shot.

The New Contenders

Georges Sotiroupoulos and Evan Dunham have probably set themselves apart from the rest as being the relatively fresh faces who could contend for the title in the new future.  A win or two for either should have title implications.

The Other Contenders

The UFC's lightweight division is one with near parity. That means that any contender who can put together a streak of three or four wins against other contenders will be in the title picture.

The list of other contenders includes Tyson Griffin, Sean Sherk, Jim Miller, Diego Sanchez, etc.

Jim Miller might be considered very close to a title shot given his four-fight win streak, but many feel that he was gifted a decision over Mark Bocek, and so he may still have to win over some doubters.

Diego Sanchez fought his last fight at welterweight, but given the way he was dismantled by Hathaway, he's probably currently more marketable at lightweight (which is probably why Dana White says he looks better at lightweight).

I expect Sanchez to return to lightweight where a rematch with Kenny Florian is marketable at the very least.

Heavyweights

Light Heavyweights

Middleweights

Welterweights