Brandon Phillips: Why You Must Sell High on the Cincinnati Reds' Second Baseman
Through 82 team games (324 at-bats) this season, Redsโ second baseman Brandon Phillips is tied with Bostonโs Kevin Youkilis for the major league lead in runs, with 62.
Phillipsย also has 10 homers and 10 steals at the mid-way point, putting him on pace for his fourth consecutive 20/20 season.
Perhaps the most surprising stat, however, is Phillipsโ batting average. In 4.5 seasons with the Reds, Phillips has never finished with a batting average higher than .288, and his career mark is an uninspiring .269.
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Yet somehow, the recently-turned 29 year old is batting .309 this season and appears to be gaining steam as the season progresses:
- April: .236
- May: .316
- June: .373
One explanation for Phillipsโ success is Dusty Bakerโs decision to move him up in the lineup, opposed to batting him in the cleanup spot where heโs hit in recent seasons.
Inย 206 at-bats hitting first or second this season, Phillipsย sports aย .330ย batting averageย withย 45 runs and six homers, but justย 14 RBIs.
This explains the spike in Phillipsโ run-scoring total, but doesnโt necessarily provide a reasonable explanation for aย batting clip thatโs 40 points above his career average.
Phillipsโย .335 BABIP, however,ย could.
His currentย line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates, donโtย suggest a change in Phillipsโ swing, as they are in line with his career marks.
Phillips is striking out at a 13.9 percent clip, which is a bit lower than his career mark (16.3 percent), but higher than his total from last year (12.8 percent).ย
Phillipsโย tendency to hack at pitches off the plate hasnโt changed, as his o-swing rate (30.6 percent) is nearly identical to his career mark of 30.7 percent (2010 MLB average: 28.5 percent).
His contact rate (81.6 percent) is up slightly from recent years, which may suggest Phillips has shortened his swing. This, however, stillย isnโt enough to explain his unusually high average.
Based on these facts,ย there doesnโt appear to be a drastic change in Phillipsโ approach at the plate. Therefore, we canย onlyย assumeย thatย his elevated batting averageย is a result ofย two things: Hisย new spot in the Redsโ batting order, and pure dumb luck.ย
In baseball terms, heโs simplyย hittinโ โem where they ainโt. Unfortunately for Phillipsโ fantasy owners, pure dumb luck isnโt as reliable as actual talent.
Not only are the law of averages working against Phillips, but his history is too.
In 1,934 career at-bats before the All-Star Break, Phillips owns a .275 batting average. Following the Mid Summer Classic, however, that mark drops to .261.
Not surprisingly, May and June are generally his best months, while he tends to struggle in July (.258)ย and September (.241).
Because of recent injuries to Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia, the second base position is somewhat thin. However, if you have the opportunity to pair Phillips with someone else for Robinson Cano, or acquire Martin Prado and another piece for Phillips, itโs worth a shot.
Phillips turns 30 next year, and both his power and speed numbers are declining.
HR/FB rates:
Stolen base efficiency:
- 2007: 32-of-40 (80%)
- 2008: 23-of-33 (69%)
- 2009: 25-of-34 (73%)
- 2010: 10-of-18 (55%)
Simply put,ย Phillipsโ value will never be higher. Heโs a great sell high option.
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