UFC 116 Breakdowns and Predictions

A Heavyweight bout for the ages sits atop a card full of interesting style matches. With Fedor losing last weekend, this fight should give us a new Heavyweight king. Who tumbles first? We’ll find out Saturday night.

I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Brock Lesnar Vs. Shane Carwin

Key Victories :

Lesnar (Frank Mir, Randy Couture, Heath Herring)

Carwin (Frank Mir, Gabriel Gonzaga)

Forecast :

This is literally the biggest fight in UFC history. The seismic activity given off by these two MMA behemoths should keep scientists busy for weeks. There will be enough power in the octagon on Saturday night to light up Cowboys Stadium. With that power, some unlucky soul is bound to be doing some serious snoozing.

After Bruce Buffer shuffles and does his classic, hyperactive introductions, the battle for the UFC Heavyweight throne will commence. Brock Lesnar, UFC Heavyweight champion, will finally face Shane Carwin, Interim Champion, for the Undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship. Someone throw “Buff” some Ritalin!

Brock Lesnar has quieted the scrutiny amongst MMA fans regarding his former stint as a professional wrestler. This wasn’t some freak show or act of desperation to be a serious professional athlete. Lesnar’s impressive wrestling background, unusual athleticism, and massive size has skyrocketed him to MMA stardom. Fighting out of Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Minnesota, Lesnar’s style consists of Wrestling and Boxing.

He amassed the following accomplishments during his collegiate wrestling years at Bismarck State College and the University of Minnesota: two-time NJCAA All American, 1998 NJCAA Heavyweight Champion, two-time NCAA All-American, two-time Big Ten Conference Champion, and the 2000 NCAA Heavyweight Champion.

He currently trains at his own gym with Team Deathclutch. In his last bout, Lesnar defecated all over Frank Mir in a one-sided affair. That fight was nearly a year ago. A serious case of Mononucleosis and Diverticulitis has kept Lesnar’s career in limbo. Being his first fight back, many wonder about the toll the illness may have taken on his body.

A recent Sherdog article talked about Randy Couture training with Lesnar for this fight. According to Couture, Lesnar hasn’t lost a step and appears to be even more dangerous than he was previously.

Shane Carwin is a member of Jackson’s MMA. The highly praised camp features world class fighters like GSP, Rashad Evans, Jon Jones, Nate Marquardt, and Andrei Arlovski. Carwin attended Western State College and the Colorado School of Mines. In his college years, he was a two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up Heavyweight, the 1999 NCAA Division II Wrestling National Heavyweight Champion, and also a two-time Football All-American.

Currently undefeated in his MMA career, one could say Carwin has a penchant for putting people to sleep. He has KO’d every opponent set before him in the first round. At UFC 111, Carwin’s destruction of Frank Mir resembled a street mugging.

Keys to Victory :

Distance will determine the outcome of this fight. Brock Lesnar has to avoid getting closed off and trapped against the cage. Despite not landing anything significant, Randy Couture was able to consistently cut Lesnar off and press him against the fence. Carwin will be the most physically imposing opponent Lesnar has fought thus far.

When the distance closes, Lesnar needs to circle away from the cage. In the open, Lesnar will have opportunities to land. Carwin doesn’t possess fluid striking and often leaves himself open to counters longer than a 7-Eleven gas station.

There will be chances on the feet, but the standup shouldn’t be Lesnar’s avenue to a successful title defense. He needs to use his superior speed and athleticism to drag Carwin to the ground. A major strength in Lesnar’s game is his ability to control from the top and carefully seek out advantageous positions.

This fight shouldn’t be any different. He needs to wear Carwin out with good top control and well-placed strikes. This bout will be dependent on Lesnar’s ability to formulate and stick to a gameplan.

I hope Shane Carwin has been practicing his sprawl. Lesnar has a freakish shot for a guy his size. Carwin should utilize the crossface when he sprawls from takedown attempts in the open. Lesnar rarely drops to a knee during his double leg attempts. He basically drops his head and gores opponents through the octagon.

A crossface is when you use your forearm to drive a guy’s face away from your body as you’re simultaneously sprawling away from the takedown…Phew…Breathe….Ok! This could prove very useful for Carwin if he stays alert and keeps an explosive sprawl.

On the feet, Carwin has to do a better job of protecting himself. In the Gabriel Gonzaga fight, Carwin was tagged by the same right cross two or three times in a row. The damage added up and had him in early trouble. Lesnar possesses one punch knockout power.

Carwin has to keep his hands up, utilize timing, and explode in and out of range with nasty intentions. If he can cut Lesnar off, he should seek out the clinch and do some fence work. Against the fence, Carwin could land bombs and greatly reduce Lesnar’s chances of snagging takedowns.

Prediction :

Think of this fight as two overgrown Jonathan Goulets with world class knockout power going toe to toe. It really doesn’t matter how great your chin is. If Lesnar or Carwin lands clean, you’ll suddenly be serenaded by green fairies and the sounds of Beethoven. No, you aren’t drunk from a night fueled with bottles of Absinthe. You got tagged with a Lesnar or Carwin cross.

This is a tough fight to predict. It’s amazing that Carwin still remains a mystery after twelve MMA bouts. In the UFC, he hasn’t shown much outside the ability of one punch knockout power. This isn’t a bad thing. Carwin is a true specimen who deserves his placement among the Heavyweight elite.

There is still a big question revolving around Carwin. What if he doesn’t land that devastating punch? What if the fight goes the distance? In the Gonzaga fight, Carwin was soundly losing up until the massive haymaker.

Maybe it was an off night? The point is that sometimes you have to look beyond the record. Carwin isn’t going to land that punch in every fight. The time will come when we will all see the completeness of his game. I believe that time will be this Saturday night.

Lesnar may see early trouble on the feet, but he will shoot and snag takedowns at will. Carwin will take massive damage from the bottom. The ref will finally step in to save Carwin from the vicious ground-and-pound onslaught deep in the first round.

Chris “The Crippler” Leben Vs. Yoshihiro “Sexyama” Akiyama

Key Victories :

Leben (Mike Swick, Patrick Cote, Jorge Rivera, Jorge Santiago, Alessio Sakara, Aaron Simpson)

Akiyama (Alan Belcher, Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef)

Forecast :

Wanderlei Silva was originally scheduled to fight Yoshihiro Akiyama on this card. After suffering a serious rib injury, he was forced to withdraw from the bout. Chris Leben has agreed to step in and seize a great opportunity. Akiyama is a respectable top ten Middleweight. If Leben is victorious, his stock would rise significantly in the UFC.

Born in Portland, Oregon, Chris Leben trains out of Icon Fitness MMA. He is a Boxer, Wrestler, and BJJ artist. Many remember him as a cast member of the first ever season of The Ultimate Fighter. After the show, Leben went on an impressive five fight win streak.

He was on his way to a shot at the Middleweight title…and then he met Anderson Silva. If what Silva did to Leben that night had to be tried before a court of law, the UN would be needed to settle the case. It was a complete castration of pride.

Four years later, Leben claims to have rededicated himself to the sport. Amidst skeptics, he backed up those claims by defeating Aaron Simpson at the TUF 11 Finale. That fight was a little over a week ago. Leben will step into the cage on Saturday night with only two weeks rest. He is already in shape and figures Simpson and Akiyama to be similar opponents.

“Sexyama” will be forced once again to protect his Zeus-like face from a bruising brawler. Fighting out of Osaka, Japan, Yoshihiro Akiyama is a black belt in Judo and Shotokan Karate. He trains at Xtreme Couture and the Akiyama Dojo in Tokyo, Japan. At UFC 100, Akiyama went to war with Alan Belcher in a “Fight of the Night” performance. Akiyama took the split decision. Out of sixteen fights, it was the only decision in his MMA career.

Keys to Victory :

If Leben has any hope of progressing in his MMA career, he has to start defending himself. I will admit that he has one hell of a chin. Leben could be the spokesperson for Bounty. His chin just absorbs punches. The problem hinges on the fact that Leben is incredibly easy to score on. Akiyama is a tough fighter with a fairly sturdy beard of his own. If Leben leaves himself open, he will likely be out-pointed.

He has to also watch out for the clinch. Akiyama has very slick throws. Leben should be aggressive, but he has to make sure he doesn’t extend too far on his combinations. He doesn’t want Akiyama grabbing him and working his judo. Leg kicks will prove useful in this bout. Alan Belcher battered Akiyama’s legs at UFC 100. Akiyama never really adjusted to that form of offense and left just about every kick unchecked.

If Kimbo Slice was fighting Chris Leben, what would he do (or at least say he’d do)? He’d “throw those thangs” on him! Don’t be Kimbo Slice. Leben has a history of breaking jaws. If “Sexyama” stands and bangs, the only “thangs” he could be throwing in the near future is regurgitated pudding. He has to respect Leben’s power. Don’t get baited into unnecessary exchanges.

Akiyama should remain patient. In the open, he should fire off simple combinations and get out of range. If Leben gets impatient and blitzes, Akiyama can slow the fight down by grabbing him and doing some clinch work. Leben’s striking seems to get sloppier as the fight drags on. Akiyama can take advantage of Leben’s open defense by pushing the fight and extending his combinations.

Prediction :

This fight is more dependent on what Akiyama does wrong than what Chris Leben does right. Barring a reckless performance, Akiyama should get the victory. Leben is as tough as they come. There are still persistent, technical flaws in his game. Until Leben improves, he will remain a perennial gate keeper for Middleweight prospects. Akiyama takes the unanimous decision.

Chris “Lights Out” Lytle Vs. Matt “The Immortal” Brown

Key Victories :

Lytle (Kazuo Misaki, Aaron Riley, Pete Spratt, Matt Brown, Paul Taylor)

Brown (James Wilks, Pete Sell)

Forecast :

This is a rematch of the August 2007 bout in the United Fight League (UFL). Lytle took that fight via guillotine submission in the second round. “The Immortal” one, Matt Brown, will put his pro wrestling persona on the line as he looks to take vengeance on Chris “Lights Out” Lytle.

Training out of Integrated Fighting Academy, Chris Lytle is a Boxer, BJJ artist, and wrestler. Out of his twenty-eight victories, nineteen have come by submission. He is a BJJ black belt who has earned multiple “Submission of the Night” (2) and “Fight of the Night” (4) honors.

Along with training and fighting, Lytle is also a full-time firefighter at the Indianapolis Fire Department. He has never been finished in his MMA career. All of his losses have come by decision or cut stoppages. At UFC 110, he submitted Brian Foster with a kneebar.

Matt Brown may be “The Immortal”, but he looks like “The Lethal Weapon”, Steve Blackman. Brown is a brown belt in Judo and blue belt in BJJ. The majority of his wins have come by TKO stoppage. He fights out of Las Vegas, Nevada/Seattle, Washington and trains at Warrior Training Center.

Some may remember Brown from his stint on TUF Season 7: Team Rampage vs. Team Forrest. He was defeated on the show by the season’s winner, Amir Sadollah. In his last bout, Brown succumbed to a rear naked choke from Ricardo Almeida.

Keys to Victory :

Lytle should take a page out of his own book in this fight. In the first fight, he was able to close the distance, get the takedown, and lock up a submission. This fight shouldn’t be any different. He has to be aggressive and take away Brown’s range. When the distance closes, Lytle should work Brown against the fence with short strikes and takedown attempts.

The fence can’t be a stalling point. If Lytle can’t lock up takedowns, he needs to keep landing short punches, knees, and elbows for points. He has to beware of the Muay Thai Plum. Brown is a tall Welterweight with an effective clinch game.

Brown doesn’t have to brawl with Lytle, but he can’t afford to be passive and lose on octagon control. He should be aggressive and pick apart Lytle’s sloppy striking. Lytle throws punches like he’s pitching for the Orioles. He keeps his hands low and uses decent head movement to protect his already strong chin.

When the distance closes, Brown should try to grab the plum. From that position, he can work knees, dirty boxing, or whip Lytle around to improve his position. He has to avoid developing a stagnant guard if the fight hits the floor. Lytle has a decent enough top game to ride out a decision.

Prediction :

This could be a “Fight of the Night” candidate. I expect both guys to make the most of such a Primetime slot on a big PPV. Matt Brown has underrated takedown defense. He is incredibly hard to drag to the mat. I don’t see Lytle getting many opportunities to impose his ground work.

Brown will shrug off takedowns, work Lytle from the clinch, and get the better of the exchanges. It’ll be a brutal fight. In the end, Bruce Buffer will call on Matt Brown’s name as the winner by split decision.

“The American Psycho” Stephan Bonnar Vs. Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski

Key Victories :

Bonnar (Keith Jardine, James Irvin, Eric Schafer, Sam Hoger)

Soszynski (Stephan Bonnar, Brian Stann, Dan Christison)

Forecast :

The initial bout between these two Light Heavyweights took place at UFC 110. Soszynski was controlling the early part of the bout. As time went on, Soszynski started to get tired and slow down. Bonnar managed to come back in the fight. In the third round, an accidental head-butt gashed Bonnar’s head. The ref was forced to stop the bout amidst a booing crowd and pleading Bonnar. Soszynski was awarded the TKO victory.

Fighting out of Temecula, California, Soszynski trains at Team Quest. The legendary gym contains fighters like Dan Henderson, Chael Sonnen, Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, and Matt Lindland. Soszynski is a BJJ artist, Boxer, and Wrestler. Before venturing into MMA, he was a bodybuilder and professional wrestler. He picked up his initial MMA knowledge from fellow wrestler, “Bad News Brown”.

On TUF Season 8: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir, Soszynski made it to the semifinals. He was defeated by Vinny Magalhaes. Since the show, Soszynski has compiled a 4-1 record in the UFC.

For every post TUF fan, Stephan Bonnar will always be dear to your heart. The unforgettable slugfest he put on with Forrest Griffin at the TUF 1 Finale created legions of new fans. Fighting out of Chicago, Illinois, Bonnar trains with Xtreme Couture and Team Sityodtong. He is consistently surrounded by talent like Randy Couture, Forrest Griffin, Patrick Cote, Tyson Griffin, and Vitor Belfort. His style includes BJJ (purple belt), Kickboxing, and Muay Thai.

The last four years haven’t been particularly great as far as Bonnar’s UFC career is concerned. In 2006, he tested positive for steroids. Since June 2006, Bonnar has lost five of his last seven fights.

Keys to Victory :

In the beginning of the first fight, Soszynski looked extremely sharp with his punches. He used a lot of footwork and constant pressure to blast Bonnar on the feet. The problem came in the second round. Stephan Bonnar is a durable fighter. He will eat punches and keep coming forward.

Soszynski has to pace himself in this fight. Don’t sit in the pocket and wing punches at Bonnar. He should be aggressive and take advantage of Bonnar’s bad countering. When Bonnar is the aggressor, Soszynski needs to use good footwork and change angles.

Bonnar has to improve his countering and striking defense. When pressured, Bonnar does a half-squat, closes his eyes, and wings his punches like an aerobics instructor. He also has a problem keeping his hands up. Stephan, we all know you love getting bloodied and going to war. Hell, we love seeing you do it…But…Think about your career. How long can your body withstand so much punishment? How many chances is Dana White going to give you?

When Soszynski presses, Bonnar needs to circle and punch at angles. He can’t allow his face to become a punching bag. Soszynski may not tire out this time around. Bonnar needs to close the distance and try to secure takedowns. On the ground, he’ll have to be wary of Soszynski’s BJJ. Soszynski has one of the nastiest kimuras in the game.

Prediction :

It’s amazing how much can change in five years. After Griffin/Bonnar 1, Forrest Griffin went on to become UFC Champion and one of the best Light Heavyweights in the world. Many would find it an outrage to even mention Bonnar’s name next to Griffin’s. To think, these two were very evenly matched on that historic night. What went wrong for Bonnar? Why hasn’t he developed into a top tier guy? That’s a complicated question.

The only answer I can give is that Bonnar never made serious adjustments in his game. Stephan Bonnar is essentially the same fighter he was five years ago. Dana White is in a hard place. He doesn’t want to release Bonnar. What about other fighters? Will a deserving fighter miss out on a great opportunity because Bonnar keeps getting chances?

In any case, Soszynski will dot his I’s and cross his T’s in this rematch. Bonnar will put on a game performance, but Soszynski will take the unanimous decision due to superior footwork and aggression. Along with Lytle/Brown, I wouldn’t be surprised if this bout takes “Fight of the Night” honors.

Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino Vs. George Sotiropoulos

Key Victories :

Pellegrino (Mac Danzig, Josh Neer, Thiago Tavares, Rob Emerson)

Sotiropoulos (Joe Stevenson, Jason Dent)

Forecast :

Kurt Pellegrino may not have Bruce Wayne swagger, but his alter ego has been going to work in the octagon. Fighting out of Point Pleasant, New Jersey, Pellegrino’s style consists of BJJ and Wrestling. He currently trains at Florian Martial Arts Center and his own gym, Kurt Pellegrino MMA. In high school wrestling, Pellegrino was a two-time state finalist. He is riding a four fight win streak. At UFC 111, he submitted Fabricio Camoes via rear naked choke.

Born in Geelong, Victoria (Australia), George Sotiropoulos trains out of Fisticuffs Gym. He is a black belt in BJJ. His boxing coach, Leonard Gabriel, has helped him drastically improve his standup. The improvements have made Sotiropoulos a well-rounded threat for any lightweight. On TUF 6: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra, Sotiropoulos made it to the semifinals. He lost to Tommy Spears by KO after an accidental eye poke.

Since the show, he has amassed an undefeated UFC record (5-0). At UFC 110, he took the biggest victory of his MMA career after soundly picking Joe Stevenson apart for a unanimous decision.

Keys to Victory :

This is a tough fight for Pellegrino. While he has the better wrestling, Sotiropoulos has the better striking and BJJ. This should be a very technical fight. Pellegrino should be relentless with his takedowns and use his superior wrestling to ride Sotiropoulos out on top. He has to beware of Sotiropoulos’s dangerous guard.

Sotiropoulos loves to use the rubber guard to seek out submissions and sweeps. Pellegrino has to utilize good balance and posture to avoid losing top position. On the feet, he needs to set up his shots with feints and simple combinations.

Sotiropoulos should be confident knowing he can win this fight wherever it goes. He can’t underestimate Pellegrino’s wrestling. Pellegrino won’t be as passive with his takedown attempts as Joe Stevenson was. He will get after Sotiropoulos and make him defend. On his back, Sotiropoulos needs to keep an active guard. Pellegrino is good at keeping position. It’s going to take constant effort from Sotiropoulos to find success from the bottom.

Prediction :

This should be a great fight between two high level grapplers. Pellegrino may nab a takedown or two, but he will struggle inside Sotiropoulos’s guard. On the feet, it will be all Sotiropoulos. You can chalk another impressive victory up for “The Wizard of Oz”. George Sotiropoulos takes this one by unanimous decision. Yes folks, that’s his nickname.









Official Picks

Brock Lesnar By Round 1 TKO Stoppage

Yoshihiro Akiyama By Unanimous Decision

Matt Brown By Split Decision

Krzysztof Soszynski By Unanimous Decision

George Sotiropoulos By Unanimous Decision