Analyzing Lesnar vs. Carwin at UFC 116

 The monumental fight between the two behemoths of MMA is upon us and no one on the outside seems to really know what the precise strategy of each camp is.  

 Considering both men’s strengths and weaknesses, as well past Octagon performances, here is a quick breakdown of what could be in store come Saturday evening at UFC 116!

• The Carwin Strategy:

 I think the Carwin strategy is simple:  Keep the fight standing, and box with Lesnar.  Neither fighter has any sort of noteworthy kicking prowess.  Carwin, however, is proud of the time he has put in the gym practicing his boxing skills which are going to be more proficient than Brock’s.  

 Even though the display of boxing will be far removed from anything that could resemble the proverbial “Sweet Science,” it is effective enough for Carwin to land that overhand right that seems to ruin his opponents’ day.  

 In previous fights, Carwin has utilized cage work effectively as witnessed against Frank Mir. While pinning his opponent against the cage, he starts to wear them down until he lands the few shots that he needs.  This will be tough to do against Brock who is both stronger and a better wrestler.

• The Lesnar Strategy:

 While Brock may be tempted to experiment with some fancy handwork with Shane, he is going to attempt to take this to the ground.  Brock is going to shoot in and try to get on top of Shane, hold position, and land punches.  Neither guy seems to be proficient with submissions outside of a basic chokehold.  

 If you have seen the training videos from Lesnar’s camp, then you’ve probably also seen Erik Paulson mixing it up.  Erik Paulson is an incredibly skilled martial artist, a former Shooto champion and a master of leg-locks who has studied with a variety of different legends.

 It’d be awesome to see Brock attempt some sort of a leg/ankle lock submission.  Most wrestlers and BJJ guys (barring a few exceptions such as Shogun Rua) are not too adept at leg-lock submissions.  Anyway, I doubt we’ll see that attempted in this match, but wouldn’t it be something if Brock pulled that out?

• What’s going to happen?

Often times, when you have two great grapplers fighting each other in MMA, you shall be witness to an atrocious striking match.  Their wrestling skills will offset and a lame boxing match will surface.

 I don’t see that happening on Saturday.  I see both guys swinging for the fences with gigantic hands the size of anvils.  Brock is a more accomplished wrestler as well as physically stronger so he has to get the edge in grappling.  Carwin gets the edge in standup.

 Much remains to be seen in Brock’s improvement in cage work and the clinch as reports indicate Brock having brought Randy Couture to Minnesota to prepare for this match.  Will Brock turn the tables and utilize cage work to fatigue Shane?

 My prediction of how this will play out:  After the initial feeling out period, Brock will throw a combination of punches/faints to momentarily distract Shane Carwin. He will then shoot with a double-leg to take Carwin down and put him on his back.  (A place no wrestler is comfortable being.)   

 He will hold position, and try to work to half guard in order to punish Carwin from the top.  Will Carwin be able to get back on his feet at that point?  We’ve never seen him thrown down thus far.  

 Then again, we could all be treated to a one-dimensional boxing match between two gargantuan wrestlers.  This is a five-round championship match and conditioning will indeed become an enormous factor should this match go past the third.  

 It’s the combination of these dynamics, freakish genetics, and Lesnar’s polarizing personality that are guaranteed to make this a huge PPV seller, despite a seemingly flat series of under cards.   

 Final Prediction: Lesnar wins by TKO through ground and pound.