NBA Pre-Draft Analysis: Washington Wizards

Washington Wizards - The top overall pick in a year like this is more than D.C. fans could have hoped for in their desire to find something worth rooting for. The franchise is searching for a new identity after the Gilbert Arenas incident proved the final straw that led to a sell-off of virtually all valuable pieces and franchise faces, namely Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. As bad as it seems, there is actually a lot of potential still on the Wiz roster. Despite being five years into the league, Andray Blatche is still just 23 years old and is fresh off a campaign in which he averaged career highs in points (14.1) and rebounds (6.3). That's pretty good for a guy who never played organized ball until high school and was a mid second round pick just five years ago. His value will be maximized if 2008 first rounder Javale McGee can start to realize some of his enormous potential. At 7-feet tall and 250 pounds, McGee needs to play the five spot. That would allow Blatche to play the power forward slot on a full-time basis, a move that would allow him to use his athleticism to dominate slower big men and confuse defenses. Still, McGee is not there yet, playing in only 60 games in his sophomore season with the Wizards. The Nevada alum contributed only 6.4 points and 4 boards per game, but did manage to block almost 2 shots per contest. If he can get those numbers up into the 10 and 10 range with a couple of blocks a night, he's a great value for Washington. Nick Young, Washington's 2007 first rounder, averaged only 8.6 per game this season, being hampered some by the arrival of combo guard Randy Foye (10.1 ppg). Still, Young shot more than 40 percent from beyond the arc in his third year and could be a valuable piece to the Wizards' rebuilding puzzle. Washington also made an under-the-radar acquisition in Al Thornton, a wildly athletic forward who put up 10.7 a night in only 24 games as a Wizard while also grabbing 4.3 rebounds.Those are the guys you probably need to keep if you are Washington. After that is a collection of veterans you could retain for the right price (Earl Boykins, Mike Miller, Shaun Livingston). And there is the Arenas conundrum. Is his reputation and image too tarnished to make him a value to the franchise? Can he perform at a level anywhere near high enough to erase the sting of the max contract he's carrying? Those are questions that must be answered before the franchise determines whether or not to keep Arenas. If they choose to move him, what can be acquired in exchange for him? Odds are that he is unmovable. But a desperate team with cap space to spend that misses out on its big time free agent targets (i.e. the Knicks) could probably make Arenas their consolation prize for very little. 

All that brings the Wizards to July 1. Last time they had the top pick, they opted to take Kwame Brown. Other players going in the first round that year included Pau Gasol, Jason Richardson, Joe Johnson, Shane Battier, Richard Jefferson, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace and Tony Parker. Then there were guys like Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Troy Murphy, Jamaal Tinsley and Brendan Haywood. That's a lot of guys that have had considerably better careers than Brown. In short, the Wizards don't need to over think it this time. While guys like Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins would bolster the front court, the NBA has become largely a perimeter-oriented league and guard play is of the utmost importance. John Wall has to be the pick here. His ability to penetrate and create makes everybody better and could really help the careers of guys like Blatche and Young. No matter what Washington does with Agent Zero Margin for Error, Wall is the guy. Even on his best day, Arenas is not a point guard. He is a combo guy that could succeed at off guard with a little help from the one. Besides, this one is a marketing no-brainer. Wall's selection would give D.C. Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and John Wall in consecutive years. That is a young trio that could captivate the imaginations of the District's sports fans for the next 10-plus years. 

Sidenote: Washington owns a team option on Josh Howard to $11.8 million. It is difficult to picture Josh Howard back with the Wizards, especially if he hopes to command anything close to what he made last season. His production was less than stellar. His character issues were already well documented and he can now add injury concerns to his list of problems. But if he can get himself back anywhere close to what he was before Shawn Marion arrived in Dallas, he could be a value for Washington or some other suitor.