2010 NBA Draft: A Preview and Lottery Mock Draft

We stand a little more than a week and one fairly interesting NBA Finals conclusion away from the annual teenage recruiting fair known as the NBA Draft. 

This year's version is pretty solid at the the top, a crap shoot in the middle, and full of interesting prospects at the end of the first round and into the second.

By no means is it one of the best drafts of the last decade, but it should produce some solid pros who have the chance to be all-stars and one player who has a better than decent shot of being a Hall of Fame contender.

Let's take a look at how the draft could develop through the lottery based on the state of teams heading in and the moves they are expected to make in this year's free agent bonanza in July.

No. 1— WASHINGTON WIZARDS

We can say with almost complete certainty that the Wizards will keep this pick and select John Wall. 

Wall is the closest thing to a consensus No. 1 pick as we've had in a point guard since Magic Johnson. He is simply that good. He has the size, speed and competitive spirit to be one of the best at his position in the very near future.

The question becomes what to do with Gilbert Arenas?  Agent Zero's problems off the court aside, he hasn't played anything close to a complete season since the 2006-07 campaign.  If he took good care of himself physically during his extended vacation (and I would guess that he did) he should slide right into the shooting guard position and present the Wizards with a formidable backcourt from day one.

Unfortunately, there is still a lot of room for growth in the frontcourt.  The Wizards do have a great deal of cap space though, and if they can overcome what is a clear image problem in the league right now, they may be able to convince someone like Carlos Boozer to come on board to balance out their lack of a true post presence.

No. 2—PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

The Doug Collins-led Sixers are in an enviable but somewhat complicated position this year.  They have a solid core in Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala along with Elton Brand inside (if he ever returns to form), but they haven't been able to put it together in the win column with this group.

The Sixers could either go with a post player like Derrick Favors, whom they could groom to be Brand's replacement, or a complementary wing like Evan Turner. 

Both players should end up with solid pro careers, with Favors probably having a little more upside long-term.  But with Collins at the helm, one has to imagine that he wants to win sooner rather than later. Turner will probably come out of the gate as the better player. 

I have read a lot about how he and Iggy are too similar as players to be in the same lineup. There are a lot of commonalities in their games, but I could see them playing the two and three spots quite well together. 

Both are great defenders and good enough outside shooters, and they should work off each other well, especially with Holiday emerging as a legit point this year.

On a side note, I could see Collins looking to move the pick if he feels he can bring in some talent in return that will get the Sixers back in the thick of things a bit sooner.

No. 3—NEW JERSEY NETS

New Jersey would love to have things fall this way, given the fact that things looked pretty bleak for them after the ping pong balls settled in.

Knowing that the Nets will be looking to add one of the premier free agents, you could make the argument that who they pick will depend on who they have their sights on after July 1st.

But a guy like Favors is simply to good to pass up at this point. He and current Net big man Brook Lopez compliment each other nicely and would make for a formidable post duo for the next eight to ten years. 

If I was LeBron James, I'd look at a core of Lopez, Favors, and point guard Devin Harris as as good of a core as any of the other teams pitching him, especially if he looks at it as a long-term proposition instead of a "win next year" scenario.  But that's just me.

No. 4—MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Here's where things start to get interesting. The Wolves are in a bit of a messy situation, with two post players who don't compliment each other very well in Kevin Love and Al Jefferson and a top five pick from last year who may never play for them.  Still, there is hope here, if for no other reason than the fact that this is yet another top five pick in its hands.

If Minnesota could move Al Jefferson, DeMarcus Cousins would be a legitimate option. He and Love would form a duo that could give Favors and Lopez a run for their money, assuming Cousins doesn't develop into the head case so many seem to think he eventually will become. 

No player left in the draft (in this scenario) offers more upside than Cousins. He has the skills to develop into a Derrick Coleman-type player, and I mean that in more ways than just his style of play. 

A coach like Kurt Rambis could be just what the doctor ordered for Cousins, and General Manager David Kahn has shown to make the big splash in the past (see: Ricky Rubio). 

Kahn has put some smoke up that Cousins is not his type of player, and he may not be.  Or he may be, and Kahn is simply blowing trying to drum up interest in a trade.  That is a very strong possibility, as some teams may have a better impression of Cousins.

Although there will be interest in Wesley Johnson and possibly even Xavier Henry, I think they go with Cousins in the end, if they do indeed keep the pick.  Whether or not it works out in the long-term is a question that only time can answer.

No. 5—SACRAMENTO KINGS

The Kings have one bona fide lead man in Tyreke Evans. The Maloof gamble paid off well for Sacramento, and they now have a cornerstone to their obvious rebuilding project. The question remains, who should that second piece be?

They could theoretically draft a player at any position outside of point guard, although I think in the end they stray away from addressing the backcourt with this pick. While Evans is valuable, it is still not a given that he will be a pure point guard in the long run, so they will probably opt to see where his natural fit is before gambling again on a guard at such a high spot.

Spencer Hawes is a somewhat intriguing prospect at the five and Carl Landry is a solid combo forward, but neither has their place in the starting five firmly established. No one outside of Evans does, for that matter. 

Therefore, they could be open to Wesley Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu, or possibly someone like Greg Monroe.  In the end, I think they settle in on Johnson as the best fit and plug him in at the small forward spot from day one.

No. 6—GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

The Warriors are undoubtedly a team in transition. They are currently for sale, they have a coach whose days in the grind are definitely numbered (something anyone in the Bay Area knows well), and they have yet to find a winning formula with their mostly young talent.

The backcourt appears to be set with Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, although I have huge reservations about how good a fit they are with each other (or about anyone Ellis would be a fit with... is Eric Snow still playing?).  There are also some nice pieces in the frontcourt in Andris Biedrins and Anthony Randolph. 

What they lack is a legitimate, back to the basket, post player—someone who can draw the defense in and allow Curry and Ellis to do their thing on the perimeter. Unfortunately for Golden State, the two best candidates for the job were already selected— Favors and Cousins. Either would have fit nicely in the mix here at No. 6, but the Warriors pick comes too late for either (although Cousins could legitimately slide to this spot). 

This means they either need to try and trade up to guarantee one of those two, or they settle in with what's left. The two best choices of the remaining prospects are Aminu and Monroe.  Neither completely addresses the back to the basket need, but Aminu would add quite a skill set at the forward position (although it is uncertain which one) and Monroe's passing ability would work nicely with the guards.

Considering they already have a player similar to Aminu in Maggette, I think they will end up going with Monroe. He can play the four and the five and will fit in nicely with Randolph and Biedrins to give the Warriors a well rounded frontcourt. 

No. 7—DETROIT PISTONS

The Pistons would have probably loved any of the Favors—Cousins—Monroe trio.  Unfortunately, the last of the three went one pick before them in this scenario. 

Unless Joe Dumars can package Richard Hamilton in a deal, I don't see him trading up in the draft. It's just not his style. 

Instead, he will probably look to compliment the current roster with a player whose skill set meshes in with what they are trying to re-establish in Detroit - a hard working, team first attitude.

Seeing that there are currently three shooting guards (counting Rodney Stuckey) on the roster, that's one area we know won't be considered. With Prince and Daye, the small forward position seems to be pretty locked up as well. That leaves point guard, power forward and center as positions of need.

The previously mentioned Aminu could be in the mix, although they seem to have a couple of hybrid forwards already in Jonas Jerebko, Charlie Villanueva, and DaJuan Summers.

In the end I think this pick comes down to whoever Dumars likes better of Ekpe Udoh and Ed Davis.  That question hinges on the "proven vs. potential" argument, one you would think Dumars would lean toward the proven side with.

Udoh had a fantastic March to cap off a quietly very solid season in Baylor's resurgence.  He would give Coach Kuester added flexibility at the four and provide a post spark that seemed to be lacking last season.  In the end, I think he's the pick.

No. 8—LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

I can only imagine the Clipper faithful have been giddy about the prospect of Donald Sterling considering selling the team to David Geffen, as has been discussed (although very hypothetically) recently. 

I'm sure they see LeBron signing immediately, a Laker-Clipper rivalry emerging, and title after title being delivered by the new juggernaut of SoCal.  Unfortunately, these are the Clippers we're talking about, so we probably need to temper expectations a bit.

The Clips are well positioned for the future with a solid nucleus and a bit of cap space heading into the summer.  I've heard they may make a run at Rudy Gay, who would be a great fit alongside Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, and Chris Kaman in the starting lineup.

The draft comes first though, and they need to consider the small forward position one of slight need in the meantime. They could also look to groom a replacement for Baron at the point or give Kaman some help down low. A bigger two guard couldn't hurt either, as Gordon tends to get out-sized defensively at times.

Based on what's left, there are many options. Davis, Aminu, Xavier Henry, and Cole Aldrich are names to consider, along with a few others. It all comes down to where they see their summer taking them. 

Given what's in the cupboard now, I think that Henry is the best option.  At 6'7", he has a tremendous ceiling and could play the two or three in the NBA.  He would give the Clips a contingency plan should free agency not work out as hoped, which is entirely possible.

No. 9—UTAH JAZZ

Predictability—that has been the hallmark of many past Jazz draft picks. This year should be no different. 

Their greatest need at the moment is at two guard and center. That could change should Carols Boozer look to leave, but as things stand now Mehmet Okur needs a grooming candidate and Deron Williams could use a solid backcourt mate.

With Henry going the pick before, I think this one is a no-brainer. Cole Aldrich should fit nicely into the Jazz frontcourt and serve as the eventual starting center for Utah. There may be no better fit in the top 10 based on style of play between team and player than Aldrich and the Jazz. 

No. 10—INDIANA PACERS

The Pacers have been trying to establish an identity since their last dominant squad imploded on national television when Ron Artest went fan hunting in Detroit. Much like Sacramento, they have one cornerstone in place in Danny Granger, and then a lot of unknowns. There are many questions they have to answer.

Will Tyler Hansbrough ever be able to play at the NBA level? Which T.J. Ford will the team get from here on in? Have we seen all we're going to see from Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy? Can Roy Hibbert be a starter quality five? 

That's a lot to consider.

No matter the fate of the above players, the Pacers need to think about grabbing anyone who can help them the most. I know he is not an ideal fit, but the ceiling on Aminu is so high that getting him at #10 is pretty good value.

Other possibilities include Luke Babbitt, Avery Bradley, Ed Davis, and of course hometown hero Gordon Hayward. But in the end, I think the Pacers roll the dice on Aminu.

No. 11—NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

One thing the Hornets have is a point gaurd - no one can argue that. There is a lot you can argue about when it comes to the rest of the Hornets roster, though. 

They have some solid pieces in Emeka Okafor, David West, and rookie surprise Darren Collison, so the cupboards aren't bare. But New Orleans hasn't found a way to make it work yet, so the room for improvement is great.

Monty Williams, the new Hornet coach, has a reputation as a teacher and motivator.  He will probably look to make this pick his first player in the "Monty" blueprint, so expect a good student at a minimum.

What the Hornets really need is for someone to do the job that Peja Stojakovic is paid to do—be a solid scoring option from the wing. The closest thing to that left is probably Gordon Hayward, but that may be asking to much given the clear transition that is ahead for him.  I think the man who can best fill those shoes is Luke Babbitt. 

He has the propensity to light it up on any given night, and he should help take some pressure off Paul. 

Davis is a consideration here as well, but the Hornets could look to fill their post need with a trade that included Collison, as he will never really maximize his ability playing behind Paul.  In the end, I think Babbitt is the pick.

No. 12—MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

An undersized backcourt, a center who is far from polished, a post player who is enjoying a one year resurgence, and a second leading scorer who is a free agent—there aren't many teams whose future is harder to gauge than the Grizzlies'.

I think they simply need to think stability with this pick. What player can come in and from day one provide a stable force for this team to help them grow and reach their potential?  That's a tall order for pick #12. 

That's why a trade may be the best thing for Memphis. If they could bring in one more vet to pair with Randolph, they may be able to build a competitive team in the next couple years.

A lot rests on the decision they make with Rudy Gay. It seems the Grizzlies don't have the strongest commitment to resigning him, and he very well could walk for nothing. Rather than that, they should like to get a sign and trade done that will help address this need for stability. 

Assuming they sit tight and make the pick, Hayward may be a fit here.  I think it's a bit high for him personally, but there aren't many other guys who are proven to have led a team like he has.  Ed Davis doesn't make sense here.  I know the talent is there, but they have enough talented guys who haven't proven anything yet.  One more won't help the cause.

I think they look to deal, but if nothing materializes, Hayward becomes the pick.

No. 13—TORONTO RAPTORS

The first team in the lottery with a huge piece to lose—as in Chris Bosh—also has some other unsettling developments on the horizon. 

That starts with the status of Hedo Turkoglu, who signed a five year deal to be in Toronto about this time last year. A year later, he wants to be traded. 

The Turkoglu trade request could be a sign that the Bosh Express is ready to pull out of the terminal in Toronto for a farewell voyage, or it could be that his wife doesn't like the international scene in Toronto as much as she thought she would. Whatever the case, the Raptors have to think at this point that a sign and trade of Bosh may be their best case scenario, meaning the future in very uncertain.

The two pieces they have in place are DeMar Derozan and Andrea Bargnani, a wing and a stretch four, respectively.  That leaves their draft radar pretty wide open, meaning they will probably look for best player available. 

Ladies and gentlemen, I think Ed Davis has found his home.  He is a high value pick at this point, and he has the potential to be a shade less productive than Chris Bosh currently is, which would be helpful given Bosh's anticipated departure.

No. 14-HOUSTON ROCKETS

Rounding out the lottery is Houston, the team with by far the brightest future in this bunch.  Some shrewd moves brought the Rockets Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Trevor Ariza in the last year. 

Add to that the returning Yao Ming, and you have the makings of a very solid core.  Throw in Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola, and Shane Battier and you can see this is a team with very few needs. 

There is some room for improvement, however.  Another point guard wouldn't hurt (although they could probably use an experienced one), nor would a banger down low.

Names like Damion James, Eric Bledsoe, Avery Bradley, Daniel Orton, and Patrick Patterson are all possible targets. Although I'm sure the Rockets brass has scouted other schools besides Kentucky and Texas, these five seem to offer an element that is not already present on the current Rockets roster.

In the end I think it comes down to Bledsoe or Patterson.  If the Rockets feel they can bring in a veteran point guard who is an upgrade over Kyle Lowry, then they will probably go Patterson.  If they don't, then Bledsoe could very well be the pick.

I think they will find that vet, and Patterson becomes the pick.  He would offer another dynamic to an already strong squad.  Something tells me we won't be seeing the Rockets in the lottery this time next year.