Fantasy Baseball By the Numbers: Week 10

Let’s talk about relief pitching.

Relief pitching is worthless.

There, I said it.

Okay, so maybe I’m exaggerating just a bit, but this is basically how I treat this particular roster spot no matter how many I have to fill.

The reasoning is simple: Unless you are in a holds league, the only stat that relievers can give you that starting pitchers cannot is saves. I suppose they can help cushion your batting average and tack on a few strike outs, but your primary source of production for every other pitching category is your starters (or should be, or else your rotation needs work).

Over the course of every season, there are at least 10 closer jobs that go up for grabs due to injury/poor performance/manager fickleness, leaving tons of saves on the waiver wire for you to snatch up, and a future star or two always emerges from this annual occurrence. Andrew Bailey was last year’s example, and we already got one this season in Neftali Feliz .

Do as Confucius says: Never pay for closers.

I’ll start with a few examples from the current closer market, then hit some general stuff from there.

Two

Earned runs allowed by Aaron Heilman over his last 18 appearances, making him the leading candidate to replace the horrendous Chad Qualls in the desert. It’s less about Heilman (whose career numbers aren’t all that great) and more about Qualls, who has consistently proven he can’t get the job done, having blown four saves this season and allowing 15 runs over only 20 innings of work. Even more alarming is the 1.935 WHIP, an extremely troublesome number for a closer. Grab Heilman and hope A.J. Hinch gives him a chance at the job.

Four

Blown saves by Matt Capps in his last six outings, a popular stat going around lately, mostly because everyone saw it coming. His ERA ballooned to 3.62 over that period, mostly due to the two home runs he allowed, as many as he had given up the rest of the season.

That streak of 16 straight converted saves to start the season was too good to be true, though it will probably give him quite a leash for the time being. Tyler Clippard, he of the eight wins and 12 holds, is next in line, with Drew Storen probably not on the closer radar until next season.

Three

Clean innings for Brad Lidge since returning from the DL. You can’t ask for much more than no runs, no hits, no walks, four K’s, and one save. Don’t call it the resurgence of 2008 Lidge, but for the time being you can call him the Phillies’ closer once again. Go get him if he’s still on waivers.

The magical run for Jose Contreras is now over, as he’ll go back to set up duties unless (until?) Bad Brad decides to come back.

Well there’s your mini-closer report, now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Zero

Number of walks for Ryan Theriot between May 2 and June 4. This is ridiculous and absolutely unacceptable for a player batting first for a major league team. It is imperative for speed guys with power numbers akin to the electric bill of an Amish village to get on base. He didn’t, which translated to a dip in runs, accumulating only seven over 25 games while striking out 11 times.

There is good news, however, as he has walked three times in his last three games, with two coming on Monday. His line? 2/3, 2 BB, four runs, and two stolen bases.

Funny how that works.

Confucius also says: Read more