UFC 115 Breakdowns and Predictions

This card has great potential. At first glance, it may not be the most star studded card, but the style match-ups could make for one of the better cards this year.

I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell Vs. Rich “Ace” Franklin

Key Victories :

Liddell (Randy Couture, Tito Ortiz, Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva, Alistair Overeem, Renato Sobral, Jeremy Horn, Murilo Bustamante, Kevin Randleman, Jeff Monson)

Franklin (Wanderlei Silva, Yushin Okami, Evan Tanner, Matt Hamill, Ken Shamrock, Jorge Rivera, Jason MacDonald, Nate Quarry)

Forecast :

This main event isn’t as big as Quinton Jackson/Rashad Evans or Lyoto Machida/Mauricio Rua. There are no championship implications surrounding this bout. With that said, people have wrongfully written this fight off as a bad UFC PPV headliner. We have to understand that not every UFC event is going to have a World Championship on the line.

Maybe events such as these add to the reasoning for the UFC/WEC merger (Featherweights and Bantamweights). Regardless, this is a really interesting fight from a stylistic perspective. Two former UFC champions and future Hall of Famers will go toe to toe as Chuck Liddell takes on Rich Franklin.

It’s amazing how quickly things change in this sport. A little over 3 years ago, Chuck Liddell was considered by many a pound for pound king. Five fights later, he’s being pressured into retirement by his boss and fans.

In his last five bouts, Liddell is an astonishing 1-4. He was dropped and cranium tenderized by Mauricio Rua in his last bout at UFC 97. That fight was a little over a year ago. Liddell took time off to mull over his MMA future. Despite recent blunders, Liddell wants to continue fighting.

Liddell is a purple belt in BJJ, 5th degree black belt in Kenpo Karate, and black belt in Koei-Kan Karate. He remains with longtime friend and trainer John Hackleman at The Pit. With 13 knockouts to his name, Liddell has built a storybook career of putting people to sleep. People often forget he was a Division I wrestler at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, California. Liddell’s great base and takedown defense can be attributed to his wrestling background.

Ok…Let’s say you’re a fighter. You’re given a timeline of opponents. In a year’s time, you will face Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, and Vitor Belfort. The thought alone could make any grown man soil himself faster than Tim Sylvia. Rich Franklin fought all three in 2009.

The hope and drive to once again be a UFC champion is still there, but Franklin seems to be more concerned with building a legacy by fighting the best in the world. At UFC 103, a catch weight bout with Vitor Belfort ended with Franklin getting caught on the feet and stopped in the first round.

Franklin is a well-rounded fighter. His style consists of Kickboxing, Freestyle, Muay Thai, and BJJ. He also has a good base and underrated wrestling skills. Fighting out of Cincinnati, Ohio, Franklin trains at AMC Pankration and Team Extreme. He is a BJJ brown belt under Jorge Gurgel. People tend to forget that Franklin actually has more knockouts in his MMA career than Liddell.

Keys to Victory :

Whether you’re a fan or not, you have to respect Chuck Liddell and what he’s done for the sport. It’s a shame seeing him consistently Photoshopped, falling asleep during interviews, and being scraped off the canvas like a smashed up wad of Big League Chew. Despite falling on hard times, Liddell remains a dangerous Light Heavyweight. To get past Franklin, he will have to make some changes to his game.

Liddell has great Kickboxing skills. The problem is his defense and recoil. When Liddell throws a punch, he often keeps his trailing hand down at his side. That leaves him increasingly vulnerable to counters.

Shogun capitalized on this flaw by countering Liddell with multiple overhands that landed successfully throughout the first round. In this fight, Liddell has to keep his hands up. A deterioration in one’s ability to absorb punishment comes with age. Liddell has to protect his chin.

He also has a slow recoil. When a punch is thrown, the fighter looks to bring his hand back as fast as possible to protect himself from counters. Liddell’s punches seem to drag on longer than the Land Before Time series. He needs to use more footwork. This will help him get in and out of range faster. He has to pick his shots and cover back up.

Liddell’s success stems from his ability to effectively counter his opponents. This is why styles change the outlook of every bout. Liddell has recently paid for his new-found aggressiveness. Many have called for a return to form. The difference is that Rich Franklin struggles when pressed upon.

I’m not saying Liddell should blitz him like a teenage boy at a Taylor Swift appearance. When given the opportunity, he should force the action. After seeing him get picked apart by Keith Jardine, I don’t trust Liddell’s ability to outpoint Franklin for three rounds.

Rich Franklin has to avoid over committing on his combinations. Liddell isn’t brain dead. He is still a dangerously smart counter striker. A simple mistake could have “Ace” talking out of his ass for real this time. He should use his kicks and load up on his overhand left. Liddell’s octagon patience seems to run quite thin these days. Franklin can frustrate him on the outside with leg and body kicks. This could bait Liddell into dropping his hands in a frenzied pursuit.

Franklin needs to be weary of the takedown. Liddell is facing significant pressure to win or perform well. Don’t be surprised if he leans on his wrestling background more in this bout than previous ones. Franklin needs to be patient and find openings on the feet. When Liddell closes in, circle away and thwart his advances by countering in angles. Distance will be key for Franklin.

Prediction :

This is great matchmaking on Joe Silva’s part (way better than Ortiz/Liddell III). This should make for an entertaining bout. Liddell deserves some respect. Three out of four of his recent defeats were to world class fighters who went on to become UFC champions. It’s not like he’s losing to random scrubs.

With that said, I believe Franklin’s ability to slip in and out of range while landing punches and kicks will be the difference maker in this fight. It will be a close fight that may create controversy over the decision. In the end, Franklin will have his hand raised and walk away with the split decision.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic Vs. Pat “HD” Barry

Key Victories :

Cro Cop (Josh Barnett, Wanderlei Silva, Aleksander Emelianenko, Kazuyuki Fujita, Kazushi Sakuraba, Heath Herring, Igor Vovchanchyn, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman, Ikuhisa Minowa, Hidehiko Yoshida)

Barry (Antoni Hardonk, Dan Evensen)

Forecast :

This fight is a pivotal one in the careers of both Mirko Cro Cop and Pat Barry. For Cro Cop, this will be the final fight on his present UFC contract. The outcome of this bout could greatly influence his UFC future. This is definitely a step up in competition for Pat Barry. Gabriel Gonzaga’s highlight reel KO of Cro Cop catapulted his UFC career. An impressive showing from Barry could possibly do the same for his.

Cro Cop is a fighter, actor, politician, and a former member of the Lučko Anti-Terrorist unit in Croatia. He is indeed a jack of all trades. The Croatian hero and MMA superstar has had a turbulent time since gracing the UFC octagon. In six of his UFC bouts, he is an even 3-3. The fearless executioner decapitating domes off countless opponents appears to be a shell of his former self. Cro Cop promises renewed health and vigor in this fight.

Many changes have been made in Cro Cop’s training. He has revamped his entire team. Ivan Hippolyte, former Muay Thai legend, has taken over as Cro Cop’s trainer. Cro Cop has also improved his sparring partners. He now works with Remy Bonjasky and various other K-1 stars. In his last bout, Cro Cop bullied Anthony Perosh to a second round TKO (cut) stoppage.

Fighting out of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Pat Barry is an action figure sized berserker. At heavyweight, he is a mere 5’11. Don’t let his size full you. Barry is more than capable of pressing the action and putting together deadly combinations. His style consists of Kickboxing, Muay Thai, and Sanshou (hybrid style of Chinese self-defense). Training at Roufusport Fight Club, Barry is 2-1 in the UFC. He took the upset over Antoni Hardonk at UFC 104 by TKO stoppage.

Keys to Victory :

We need to see some urgency from Cro Cop in this fight. He needs to envision that he’s in a state penitentiary, and Pat Barry has just stolen his cornbread. The hesitant, predictable Mirko Cro Cop won’t cut it in this bout. He needs to get after Barry and chop at his legs and body with relentless kicks. It would be a surefire way to take some steam out of Barry’s compact and explosive frame.

Cro Cop has to let his hands go and stop trying to force his left high kick. He should use his size advantage and take what Barry gives him. In time, the opportunity to deliver a high kick may come. Barring magnificent defense, Barry’s short stature will make him vulnerable. Cro Cop should also utilize more movement.

While Cro Cop has a better chin than his UFC Undisputed 2010 counterpart, he should still refrain from getting into a brawl fest with Barry. He has to make Barry fight a technical battle on the feet.

Pat Barry needs to demonstrate controlled rage. Junior Dos Santos and Cheick Kongo were both able to bully Cro Cop on the feet. In his bout with Dos Santos, Cro Cop simply refused to counter and primarily resorted to pushing Dos Santos away. Cro Cop’s slow and stalking style doesn’t scare many fighters anymore.

Barry needs to push the action and avoid getting sloppy. At times, Barry tends to let his hands drop (specifically after throwing a combination). He has to avoid mistakes like that in this fight.

Barry needs to close the distance and bait Cro Cop into a slugfest. Take away his kicking range. As every standup tactician knows, an overhand is a shorter fighter’s best friend. Barry definitely has the ability to load up and unleash a fight ending overhand.

Prediction :

People seem to be underestimating Pat Barry. I actually agree with Joe Rogan in his UFC interview for the promotion of this fight. Pat Barry is a true unveiling fight for Cro Cop. He is the perfect opponent to tell us where Cro Cop is at in his career. This isn’t Eddie Sanchez or Anthony Perosh. Pat Barry is an extremely dangerous opponent.

With great hesitation, I will put my faith in the Croatian once more. He will batter Barry with kicks on the outside. Barry will tee off and land some nice shots early on. With the first round up in air, Cro Cop will come out in the second and deliver a fight ending body kick that will send Barry crashing and clutching at his insides.

Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann Vs. Paulo Thiago

Key Victories :

Kampmann (Carlos Condit, Jorge Rivera, Drew McFedries, Thales Leites)

Thiago (Josh Koscheck, Mike Swick)

Forecast :

Perhaps the dark horse in the UFC Welterweight division, Paulo Thiago is possibly one fight away from a title shot. A win could also launch Martin Kampmann into contention (think Dan Hardy). This could be the most important fight on the main card. With GSP decimating all challengers, new faces are a welcome addition to the contender list. We’ll see who emerges victorious in this battle between top ten Welterweights.

Born in Aarhus, Denmark, Kampmann’s style consists of Muay Thai and submission wrestling. Since dropping to Welterweight, he has amassed a 3-1 record with his only loss coming to Paul Daley. Kampmann currently trains at Xtreme Couture with fighters like Randy Couture, Forrest Griffin, Jacare, Yoshihiro Akiyama, and Tyson Griffin. In his last fight, he snagged a submission victory over Jacob Volkmann.

You have to love Paulo Thiago. The guy hasn’t had a break since signing with the UFC, and he continues to win fights he’s not supposed to win. It could be his haircut. Maybe it’s because he looks like a Tom Cruise splicing gone wrong. It’s probably because he uppercutted Josh Koscheck’s head into the nosebleed section. For whatever reason, Joe Silva has put Thiago through hell. Including Kampmann, Thiago would have faced a top ten opponent in four of his five UFC bouts.

Fighting out of Brasilia, Brazil, Thiago is a member of Team Black house. The world renowned camp features fighters like Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers, Lyoto Machida, Paulo Filho, and Jose Aldo. Thiago is a black belt in BJJ and Judo. Out of thirteen wins, eight have come by submission. At UFC 109, Thiago stunned Mike Swick on the feet and finished the fight with a Brabo Choke.

Keys to Victory :

Martin Kampmann has to avoid getting over zealous and making a costly mistake. Thiago is great at sitting back and making his opponents over commit. When they do, the lights flicker and they tend to go into septic shock. Kampmann should work Thiago on the outside. Use simple combinations and leg kicks. Kampmann has a decent chin, but it could prove downright Evel Knievel to take unnecessary shots from Thiago.

There may be opportunities for Kampmann to extend on his combinations. When pressed upon, Thiago exhibits bad boxing defense. Instead of circling, he often moves straight back and paws at his opponents.

Barring the UFC’s first ever Primetime bitch slap KO, This could be the best time for Kampmann to open up. Kampmann has a nice wrestling game. The opportunity to put Thiago on his back will be there. Kampmann has to beware of submissions…the guillotine, Brabo, and anaconda specifically.

Paulo Thiago has to use better boxing defense. Striking with Thiago at times looks like playing paddy cake with a giraffe. He often moves straight back, paws at his opponent (Girl Fight!!!), and sticks his neck straight into the air like he’s trying to spot celebrities in the luxury box. He needs to keep his hands up and move laterally. He has gotten away with this defense in the past, but he will eventually pay for it unless he makes the necessary adjustments.

As he may get taken down, Thiago needs to show an active guard. He should constantly look to create scrambles, work for submissions, or look to sweep. On the feet, he needs to bait Kampmann into making a mistake. Make him get impatient. Thiago is very good at doing this (watch his fights with Koscheck and Swick).

He should remain patient on the outside and try to catch Kampmann coming in. People tend to overlook Thiago’s kicking abilities. He has nice leg kicks and a great high kick. Those could play a big role in this fight.

Prediction :

This is a very tough fight to call. I can honestly see it going either way. At this very moment, I have finally made up my mind. In the end, I had to go with the Lady Gaga of MMA. Look for Paulo Thiago to absorb punishment, remain patient, and slightly outwork Kampmann for the split decision. As Paulo does his trademark jump-squat celebration, let’s pray the camera gives us a close-up of Dana White and Joe Silva. Bring on Cain Velasquez!!!

“Big” Ben Rothwell Vs. Gilbert “The Hurricane” Yvel

Key Victories :

Rothwell (Roy Nelson, Ricco Rodriguez, Krzysztof Soszynski)

Yvel (Cheick Kongo, Pedro Rizzo, Semmy Schilt, Gary Goodridge)

Forecast :

This main card slot would have righteously served Tyson Griffin/Evan Dunham. It seems the UFC had to appease the simple fan’s appetite for Heavyweight violence. Seeing as Gilbert Yvel has a history of biting opponents, eye gouching, and abusing referees, he’s always an event waiting to happen. We’ll see what happens when he takes on Ben Rothwell. Please let Steve Mazaghatti be the referee…Please….

Ben Rothwell is a Kickboxer. He currently trains at Roufusport Fight Club and Gracie Barra in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Many remember Rothwell from his successful IFL (International Fight League) days. His last bout was his long awaited debut in the UFC. The debut was ruined by a relentless mugging from Cain Velasquez.

Gilbert Yvel sports a similar style of Kickboxing. He rounds off his standup skills with decent Muay Thai. Training at Vos Gym, Yvel is a purple belt in BJJ. Out of thirty-six wins, thirty-one have come by knockout. At UFC 108, he was TKO’d in his UFC debut by Junior Dos Santos.

Keys to Victory :

Ben Rothwell needs to be patient and respect Yvel’s power. Yvel isn’t the dynamic striker he once was, but he still shows explosive knockout power. Rothwell has to keep a good defensive posture to protect himself from Yvel’s initial surge. When the exchanges cool, Rothwell should close the distance, work short punches, and try to press Yvel against the fence.

They don’t call him “Big” Ben for nothing. Rothwell is an overbearing Heavyweight. With Yvel having horrendous cardio, Rothwell should look to wear him down from the clinch. Rothwell can’t allow Yvel to have separation.

Gilbert Yvel has a plethora of flying knees and spinning kicks. He has to be careful with such maneuvers in this bout. Rothwell is too competent a Kickboxer to get careless with. Yvel has to avoid telegraphing his strikes.

He should use feints to set up his attacks. When he sees an opening, he needs to explode into his strikes and get back out. He has to keep a good distance between himself and Rothwell. Keep the action in the center of the octagon. Yvel will have the advantage in speed and athleticism.

Cardio could become a major issue in this fight. With a gas tank the size of an Asthma inhaler, Yvel has to pace himself. If he gets tired, Rothwell is a savvy veteran who will successfully take advantage of the situation.

Prediction :

Barring a flash KO, you can bank on Yvel gassing in this one. He will come out over aggressive in the beginning. Rothwell will keep his composure and wear Yvel out with a mixture of outside striking and clinch work. A completely gassed Yvel will basically hand Rothwell the TKO finish in the second round. It’s quite a shame when “The Hurricane” can’t even weather his own storm.

"The Natural Born Killer" Carlos Condit Vs. Rory MacDonald

Key Victories :

Condit (Frank Trigg, John Alessio, Brock Larson, Renato Verissimo)

MacDonald (Mike Guymon)

Forecast :

There is quite a bit of hype surrounding Rory MacDonald amongst hardcore fans. Carlos Condit is a huge step up in competition for the young Canadian. This fight will tell us a lot about both fighters. Is Condit still relevant in the UFC Welterweight division? How bright is MacDonald’s future?

Carlos Condit has tons of MMA experience. He is the former WEC Welterweight Champion. The UFC acquired his services after the Welterweight division was dropped from the WEC. Condit’s style consists BJJ, Kickboxing, Boxing, and Muay Thai.

He trains at Jackson’s MMA with superstars like GSP, Rashad Evans, Nate Marquardt, Shane Carwin, Jon Jones, and Andrei Arlovski. At UFC Fight Night 19, Condit took a split decision over a tough Jake Ellenberger.

Nicknamed “The Waterboy”, Rory MacDonald trains at Toshido Fighting Arts. He is a boxer and BJJ artist. Fighting out of Kelowna, British Columbia, he is the former King of the Cage Lightweight Champion. At UFC Fight Night 20, he submitted Mike Guymon via first round armbar. MacDonald is currently undefeated in his MMA career.

Keys to Victory :

Defense is something we don’t see often from Carlos Condit. He is a great offensive fighter, but he hasn’t shown any true countering capabilities. He’s either pressing the action or turtling helplessly. MacDonald will dictate where this fight goes. Condit has to be prepared to defend constant takedowns and aggressive striking. This is going to be a nasty fight. Condit should utilize good footwork while staying outside the pocket and striking at angles.

Keeping a good base and maintaining position will be very important. Both of these guys are high level grapplers. There will be tons of scrambles. Condit has always had a problem with keeping advantageous positions. If he scrambles into top control, he has to secure his position and chip away at MacDonald.

It will be hard enough gaining such a great position. He has to avoid making silly mistakes. On the feet, Condit has nasty kicks from the outside. He needs to make sure he puts a lot of snap behind them. MacDonald will be looking for any opportunity to drag this fight to the ground.

Rory MacDonald has to avoid getting discouraged. Condit is a tough and durable Welterweight. MacDonald shouldn’t overexert himself or get upset if he’s unable to finish. He needs to fight smart and avoid getting sloppy.

Being the superior wrestler, the takedowns will come for MacDonald. It’s up to him to keep dominant position during the transitional scrambles. In the standup, MacDonald should be aggressive. As mentioned earlier, Condit isn’t a good counter guy.

MacDonald doesn’t want to make this a Kickboxing match. He needs to push the pace and use his striking to setup his takedowns. Watch out for knees!

Prediction :

This bout is closer than some may think. MacDonald has all of the tools to take this bout, but this is a big step up in competition. After going back and forth, I’m going to take Carlos Condit by unanimous decision. I believe MacDonald is a future star. He will give Condit everything he can handle…But…In the end, I have to go with experience.

Condit will score more during standup exchanges. MacDonald will get takedowns, but Condit will find a way back to his feet. The decision will be based purely on Condit slightly outworking MacDonald.






Official Picks

Rich Franklin By Split Decision

Mirko “Cro Cop” By Round 2 KO (Body)

Paulo Thiago By Split Decision

Ben Rothwell By Round 2 TKO Stoppage

Carlos Condit By Unanimous Decision