Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: Week Nine

It is the eternal curse of the fantasy writer: when a player he/she predicts to do one thing does the exact opposite of what the writer says. Brad Evans over at ESPN had a pretty epic one recently, when he predicted a bad outing in the near future for Ricky Romero, who promptly threw a complete game shut out. Everyone, whether amateur or “professional” (if one could be called a professional fantasy player) has this happen to them; the fantasy gods love to spite us, some more than others. I find myself to be on the more hated side despite my by-weekly offerings of hot dogs and chewing tobacco.

So to make myself completely transparent, I’ll start today’s numbers with some guys from last week who made me look foolish, then we’ll go on to some other important happenings in the world of fantasy.

Batting average for Brandon Phillips to go along with two home runs and three stolen bases last week. This is a case of the importance of career numbers. He has been a reliable top five 2^nd baseman for quite some time now and is worth your trust. A batting average above .280 is good for him, and he will still put up the 20/20 line like he always does.

Earned runs allowed by Bobby Jenks the day I assured all of you that he was in the midst of a big rebound. He gave up three hits and three walks in a non-save opportunity, still managing to maintain the victory despite the discouraging effort. I still maintain he’ll bounce back, but I’m not sure how much more patience Ozzy will have with a hot Matt Thornton waiting behind him. Continue to hold onto him if you have him but pay close attention to this situation and be on the look out for a replacement reliever.

Home runs by Albert Pujols last week, giving him five for May and avoiding his first ever sub-two home run month. I obviously never said Pujols was worrying me or even that he was in a slump but it’s just one of those funny instances where you mention performance one way or another and they remind you that Mike Shanahan syndrome (he hates you) can extend to any player.

Now hopefully some numbers that won’t backfire on me…

Strike outs for Max Scherzer in his first start back from the minors. The astounding part was that it only took him 5 2/3 innings to do it, an almost mind-boggling percentage. Is anyone feeling a little déjà vu here? Last season Ricky Nolasco got shelled to the tune of a 9.07 ERA before being sent to the minors. He made an adjustment and came back firing, posting a 1.54 ERA and a 6:1 K/BB ratio his first six starts after his return to the majors. Scherzer could be in line for that kind of comeback. After all, he’s always had a monster strike out rate (9.2 per nine innings). Grab him now.

Evan Longoria wants his cap back. And for you to click here.