Should Joe Johnson Be Plan B for the New Jersey Nets?

Now that the Nets have been handed the No. 3 pick in a two-man draft, the odds of landing LeBron James or Chris Bosh just took a massive hit.

Despite having Jay-Z as a minority owner and the prospect of a stadium in Brooklyn, the Nets were relying on landing the No. 1 pick as a major selling point to free agents this summer.  The thought of John Wall running the offense and Brook Lopez down low, admittedly, held serious promise for a team that just suffered through a 12-win season.

Even Mikhail Prokhorov couldn't intimidate the lottery machine into doing his bidding, however.  Once the Sixers and Wizards jumped up, the Nets lost out on a major part of their recruiting pitch.

Still, there's no estimating what Mikhail Prokhorov and his billions of dollars will throw at the major free agents come July 1.  (My guess: It involves lots of money, booze, private jets, and European/Russian models.  What 25-year-old male can turn that down?)

Assuming the Big Three of LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade decide to take their services elsewhere, the Nets still have approximately $25 million to spend in free agency (given the NBA salary cap being set at $56.1 million in 2010-11).

Prokhorov may have promised that he'll act cautiously and with careful consideration, but he'll still have money burning a hole in his pocket this summer.

So, what should the Nets' plan B be?

Well, given that the Nets ended up with the No. 3 pick, they'll have their choice between Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, or Wesley Johnson, in all likelihood.  The smart money says they go with Favors as a frontcourt partner to Brook Lopez for the next five to 10 years.

Pair that with Devin Harris, a former 2009 All-Star (who averaged 21.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game that season), and you've got a legitimate three man group to attract the second tier of free agents—the Amar'e Stoudemires and Carlos Boozers of the world.

The only problem is, both Stoudemire and Boozer play the same position as Favors, but Favors will come at a third of the price.

Thus, the Nets should turn all of their attention to Joe Johnson, the Atlanta Hawks' free agent-in-waiting.  Despite doing everything he could to play his way out of a max contract in the series against Orlando, Johnson really only proved that he shouldn't be relied on as a No. 1 option on a team.

With Harris, Lopez, and Favors in the starting lineup beside him, that wouldn't be much of an issue.  If Johnson has an off-game, any one of the three of those guys could pick Johnson up and lead the team in scoring.

Lopez averaged 18.8 points and 8.6 rebounds in around 36 minutes per game this past season, emerging as one of the best young centers in the NBA.  With Favors by his side, there's no question that the New Jersey frontcourt could be asked to take over and dominate a game on a whim soon enough.

Now, add Johnson, who's averaged 21.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game this past season, and you've got three (possibly four, with Favors) guys who can be asked to be the No. 1 option on his team on any given night.  

Johnson, a career 37.3 percent shooter from three-point range, gives Devin Harris a reliable wing option to drive-and-kick to (after the Courtney Lee experiment got off to a rough start this past season).  Harris isn't exactly renowned for his three-point shooting (30.1 percent from three in his career), so having a guy like Johnson on the wing allows New Jersey to legitimately stretch the floor.

Johnson comes from an iso-heavy offense and has proven that he can capably handle the ball in crunch time—in essence, he could be the Nets' version of Vince Carter, redux.  

This time, the Nets would have talent comparable to their Finals teams (the Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, and Kenyon Martin heyday); add in a Carter-like talent in Johnson, and the Nets should be well back on their way to contending for the playoffs.

The Nets' supporting cast alongside Harris and Lopez should only attract Johnson further.  Terrence Williams, the rookie from Louisville, averaged 14.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game in March; he actually boosted  those averages to 14.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game in April.  

Those aren't far from Andre Iguodala's numbers...but Williams' $2 million contract is a far cry from the four years and $56 million remaining on Iguodala's.

And the Nets could do far worse than the trio of Yi Jianlian, Courtney Lee, and Chris Douglas-Roberts as three main guys coming off their bench.  All three held starting roles with the Nets at some point in the past year, after all.

Assuming the Nets cut Josh Boone free, they'll need to go shopping for a serviceable backup center in free agency.  Then again, even if they offer Johnson a maximum contract (of $16.8 million in 2010-11), they'll still have nearly $9 million to use on a backup big and other smaller pieces.

With that said, should the Nets offer Johnson a max contract, given his playoff performance against Orlando?

The smart money says no, especially after that Orlando series.  Still, the Nets could give Johnson max money and not suffer as a result, given the structure of their current roster.  Harris is locked up contractually through 2012-13, as will be whomever the Nets draft No. 3 (assuming the Nets pick up the player's third- and fourth-year-options).  

Brook Lopez will command some serious money in two seasons, but by then, the NBA will have a new CBA in place which could dramatically reshape the league's contract structure.  (The owners are pushing hard to limit guaranteed money in max contracts.)

The Nets could afford to spend hard on Johnson if they feel he could be a crucial piece to a championship puzzle.  With a starting lineup of Harris, Johnson, Williams, Favors, and Lopez, and Yi, CDR, and Lee coming off the bench, the Nets should challenge the Thunder for the largest single-season turnaround in NBA history.  (The Thunder jumped from 23 wins two years ago to 50 wins this past season; it's hard to envision a Nets team like that not  jumping to 40 wins.)

More importantly, with all of the major roster pieces locked in contractually for the next two or three seasons, Johnson would have time to grow with his teammates without much roster turnover.  

Pairing Johnson with teammates who can dominate a game, such as Lopez, Harris, Williams, and likely Favors, will allow Johnson to succeed at his highest level.  When Johnson isn't expected to be the guaranteed No. 1 option, he shines brightest.

If Prokhorov and the Nets strike out with LeBron or Bosh, they should turn their full attention to a one Joe Johnson, who would put the Nets right back in the thick of the NBA championship hunt soon enough.