NBA Free Agency Watch: David Lee's Top Three Destinations
In a summer that promises to make a lot of players a lot of money, no free agent seems poised to lose more than David Lee.
That of course is quite unfortunate for this high-energy rebounding machine. Lee really has done more than just endear himself to the Knicks faithful; his hustle has been the one consistent good memory throughout the past five seasons of basketball purgatory.
Lee's numbers have flourished in Mike D'Antoni's system, as he became a legitimate "20 and 10" power forward this season.
Yet, Lee is not a complete player: He's slightly undersized, he is not a very good defender, and it is unclear whether he can carry a front line offensively, rather than just thriving off garbage buckets and fast breaks.
This means that Lee can't expect to book the kind of paycheck that a Carlos Boozer or Chris Bosh is looking for. Lee wasn't able to find a lucrative deal last year either, as nobody—including the Knicks—wanted to commit the money that they had been reserving for the LeBron/Wade sweepstakes.
Lee will again struggle with being an afterthought this summer.
He's not in the Knicks' plans unless he's willing to take a major pay cut to fit around New York's two max signings. The other major players in free agency will also be looking to use their cap space on one to two max contracts, but not necessarily on Lee.
Lee will have a hard time fitting onto one of those rosters if he's looking for a contract worth his true value. Instead, in order to get paid fairly he will have to sign with a bottom-feeder team or a very disappointed franchise that's "settling" for him as their single major signing.
Basically, Lee is stuck having to wait for the market to pan out. By that time, the money might really have begun to dry up.
Either way, he'll probably be forced to choose between signing with a winning team for the first time in his career or getting paid. Many players face that dilemma, but it's not usually for their first large contract during their prime.
Watch for Lee to sign a shorter than expected deal yet again this year in hopes of cashing in and/or finding greener pastures at some later point in his prime. Here are the top three options for Lee this summer:
OKC might make more sense than you realize. Thunder GM Sam Presti has been very vocal about neither needing nor wanting to spend his cap money on one max contract. It's sounding more and more likely that Oklahoma City will simply try to improve their supporting cast, while wisely preserving some of their cap space for re-signing their Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green core.
Here's where David Lee comes in.
With no disrespect to Nick Collison and Etan Thomas, Oklahoma City doesn't have a single "dirty work" player who's talented enough to start on their front line. They don't need a star, but they could certainly use a little more grit up front.
Lee fits well with this team as he doesn't need plays run for him, does all the "little things" on the offensive end, and while he is undersized at 6'9", he's proven adept at playing either the four or five spot.
That last detail might be the most important.
While Jeff Green is a rare "five tool" NBA player who can do a little bit of everything, it's still not certain whether he should be a full-time starter at the power forward spot.
Signing Lee would allow Green to be the sixth man, yet still book starter's minutes by filling in at both forward positions.
Alternatively, the Thunder could go undersized on certain nights and during crunch time by playing Lee at center along with Green and Durant up front.
Either way, Oklahoma City's signing of Lee would add production and hustle at a position of need, while still preserving enough future cap flexibility. Sounds like the no-brainer move that Sam Presti has become accustomed to making.
2. Miami Heat
The Heat basically have the ability to sign two and a half max contracts. (Technically, they could make that three full contracts, but that would require finding a sucker to take Michael Beasley for cap space.)
One of those contracts is obviously reserved for Dwyane Wade, while the other will be used to lure a reason for Wade to stay in Miami.
Current logic has stated that Miami will use its other contract on a high-profile power forward like Amar'e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, or Chris Bosh. That, of course, makes sense, as Wade would pair best with an athletic low-post finisher.
But what if the unthinkable actually happens, and LeBron heads to South Beach?
In that case, Miami would need some help up front. Signing Lee would give them the hustle guy who could feed off the scraps and do the necessary dirty work.
What's more, Lee's ability to play the four or five would again give the Heat a choice between going small with Beasley in the starting lineup or moving Beasley to the bench as the sixth man while using a conventional center.
Even if LeBron doesn't sign, Lee could still make a lot of sense for the Heat.
Miami could retain Wade, then split it's other "max and half" between Lee and a Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson type.
Lee could take the half max money to play the four alongside another center-capable big man like Chris Bosh or Amar'e Stoudemire. He could also be the five next to a true four like Carlos Boozer or Dirk Nowitzki—though either of those front lines would be in trouble defensively.
Or, if Wade doesn't return, Miami will have a lot of money and open roster spots to rebuild from scratch. Lee is the high-energy type of player who could play a successful supporting role to any of the aforementioned max signings.
The point here is that Lee's versatility, and his willingness to produce big numbers without needing a lot of plays, make him a valuable building block for a Miami team that will be restructuring its foundation.
If Bosh walks, Toronto will not be able to replace him with a different max contract player. Bosh has already stated his preference for a sign-and-trade, since it gives him the chance to receive the "re-signing" bonus AND move onto a winning team. What's more, he has reportedly included New York on his top-five wish list.
New York and Toronto would be wise to swap Lee and Bosh in a sign-and-trade deal, as Lee's slightly smaller contract will fit under Toronto's cap while making sure that Bosh isn't lost for nothing.
Either way, Toronto works in Lee's favor and vice versa. There aren't many teams out there with a major hole at the power forward spot, so Lee's choices are limited if he wants to start and/or get a bigger deal.
While Lee still wouldn’t give Toronto a shot-creating player, and he definitely wouldn't improve their defensive limitations, he would at least be a legitimate starter with Andrea Bargnani and Hedo Turkoglu on the front line.
If Bosh leaves via trade or free agency, Toronto is going to need someone who can pick up some of the scoring and a lot of the rebounding slack. Lee's motor and toughness would fit well with a Raptors team that has glaringly lacked both.
Conditional: New York Knicks
Except for outside shooting ability, Lee seems to be a perfect match for Mike D'Antoni's mobile offense. Unfortunately, it remains to be seen just how New York would be able to retain Lee, unless they severely underpay him or have to settle for him as their second signing of the summer.
At this point, seeing as how New York has failed to commit for two summers in a row, I would be surprised if Lee was willing to stay, especially if he also had to take a pay cut.
Still, Knicks fans have to be hoping that they get two stellar free agents, somehow re-sign Lee, get their cake, and eat it too.
Trust me on this one. After all, I am a doctor.
- "Dr. Trade"
