Passing on Evan Turner Would Cripple Philadelphia 76ers for Years

The Sixers defied the odds on Tuesday night. Philadelphia won the No. 2 pick in the 2010 NBA draft, despite having just a six percent chance to do so.

The thought of Evan Turner in a Sixers jersey immediately rushed to Sixers fans' heads. (In fact, I immediately wrote up a slide show of 76ers-win-no-2-pick-five-reasons-to-draft-evan-turner">five reasons the Sixers should draft Turner.)

Five days later, I'm shockingly worried.  

Could the Sixers really screw this up??

This is the same franchise that spent over $10 million/year on Samuel Dalembert for the past five seasons.

This is the same franchise that handed a six-year, $80 million contract to Andre Iguodala and a five-year, $80 million contract to an Elton Brand coming off ACL surgery.

Yes, Philadelphia could really screw this up.

Let's establish this right away: The Sixers have the No. 2 pick in a two-man draft. That look on Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov's face when he found out he wasn't in the Top Two?

Yeah. It says everything.

Assuming that Ed Snider and Ed Stefanski still have functioning brain cells, they'll pick either John Wall or Evan Turner. Stefanski and Snider will walk off into the sunset, with a sensationally brighter future, with whomever the Wizards pass on.

By all accounts, Wall has established himself as the unanimous No. 1 right now. (If there were any doubts, that 6'9" wingspan of Wall's should clear everything up.)

That leaves Evan Turner, the NCAA national player of the year, for Philadelphia.  

You could do much worse, in terms of consolation prizes.

Turner averaged 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and six assists per game this season for Ohio State, shooting 51.9 percent from the field. For the sake of comparison: In his senior season at Washington, Brandon Roy averaged 20.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, while shooting 50.8 percent from the field.

Brandon Roy went sixth in the 2006 NBA draft. Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, and Shelden Williams were the five players selected before him. If those teams had a chance at a re-do today, every single one of them would have picked Roy first.

Point being, you don't pass up a player with the versatility of a Brandon Roy or an Evan Turner.  

That's not to say Roy's proven himself as a No. 1 option on a championship team. Not yet, anyway.  

He's an unbelievably talented player who's averaging 20.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and five assists in his four-year NBA career. But, the fact remains, he hasn't pushed Portland to a championship yet.

Then again, no one should be asking Evan Turner to save the 76ers right away.  

The Sixers have screwed themselves with too many poor managerial decisions over the years. (Dalembert and Brand, say "Hi.") And, until they're able to unload some of their bloated contracts, Philadelphia won't be in a position to compete for a championship.

What the Sixers do have, however, is Jrue Holiday.  

After deciding the season was unsalvageable around the All-Star break, the Sixers threw Holiday into the starting lineup. Philadelphia discovered a diamond in the rough in the rookie they drafted 17th last year.

Holiday averaged 13.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.8 steals per game in March. He shot 49.7 percent from the field, and knocked down 25 of 55 three-pointers (45.5 percent) in the month, giving the Sixers a sudden sense of direction for the future.  

In sending Holiday to the NBA draft lottery, the Sixers may (hopefully) have sent a subtle message: Holiday is the guy to build around.

Now, the Sixers will likely have the chance to get Jrue's backcourt partner in crime for the next decade in Turner.  

The 6'4" Holiday and the 6'7" Turner would cause fits for smaller opposing backcourts—a guy like Nate Robinson could never dream of seeing the floor against the Sixers.  

Both Holiday and Turner excel at creating their own shot, facilitating their teammates' offense, and rebounding for their respective positions.  

It never hurts to have too many guys who can take over a game.

That brings us to Andre Iguodala.

Yes, bringing in Turner should mean the end of the Iguodala era in Philly.  

Iggy and Turner share many of the same strengths and weaknesses: They each excel at creating their own shot, but neither one can regularly knock down a long-range jumper.

Holiday's developing some long-range consistency, but the Sixers need a wing starter that can stretch the defense, or opponents will collapse the paint every game.

Iggy garnered legitimate interest on the trade market back in February. His name was included in rumored deals for Amar'e Stoudemire and Tracy McGrady. He's got the versatility to be a great No. 3/decent No. 2 option on a team, but that team needs a superstar like LeBron James or Kevin Durant at No. 1.  

The Sixers don't have that kind of superstar on their team. That's why Iggy needs to go.

With Brand signed for three more years, and $50 million, the Sixers can't afford to pay the nearly $60 million left on Igoudola's contract over the next four years and expect to compete for a championship. Unless the NBA takes Ted Leonsis' advice and protects the owners from taking stupid pills, the Sixers will be saddled with Brand's contract for the next two years (until his expiring contract makes Brand an asset again).

The Sixers need to get value out of Iguodala while they still can. Philadelphia needs to take advantage of the opportunity to build around Holiday and Turner, following Oklahoma City's blueprint of building young around a superstar.

Turner won't be Durant. But, he'll be better than Iguodala, and he's proven at Ohio State that he's more than capable of leading a team.  

The Sixers will likely struggle next season if they rid themselves of Iguodala, especially if they get 60 cents on the dollar in a cap-clearing move. (Iguodala for Caron Butler's expiring contract, perhaps?)  

Then again, struggling next season affords them a high draft pick in 2011, right when they have $23 million in expiring contracts (Dalembert, Jason Kapono, Willie Green) coming off the books.

A core of Holiday and Turner, and that much free cap space in 2011, allows the Sixers to become major players in a free agent class that could include Carmelo Anthony. 

You think Holiday-Turner-'Melo can't have the Sixers contending for a championship within a year or two?

If the Sixers pass on Turner, and draft a player like Derrick Favors, they're resigning themselves to mediocre seasons until 2013 or 2014, when Brand and Iguodala's contracts finally expire.

If the Sixers draft Turner, they'll take their lumps next season. But, they'll be miles ahead on their way to being championship contenders once again.

It's simple, really. The Sixers lucked into a chance to stay afloat in mediocrity for the next half-decade. Or, they have a chance to tear the walls down, and build everything back up again.  

It's up to management to pick wisely, and go with the latter. 

Otherwise, get ready for four more years of late lottery picks and first-round playoff knockouts.