Detroit Red Wings: Will Jimmy Howard Avoid the Sophomore Curse?

Over the past few seasons, several goaltenders have emerged as monster talents in their rookie year, only to see it all fall apart in their sophomore season.

In 2007-08, Nashville Predators goaltender Dan Ellis posted a 23-10-3 record with a 2.34 goals-against average and a .924 save percentage.

The following season (2008-09, his sophomore year) Ellis struggled, going a paltry 11-19-4 with a 2.93 GAA and a .900 save percentage.

That very same year, Pekka Rinne, another Nashville Predators goaltender, emerged as a “money” goalie, posting a 29-15-4 record with a 2.38 GAA and a .917 save percentage.

Rinne followed up his 2008-09 season with a solid 32-16-5 record with a 2.53 GAA and a .911 save percentage—a terrific sophomore season. That said, Rinne struggled mightily over the Predators first 20 games, forcing the Preds to go back to Ellis at times.

In the end, Rinne would find his game, post good numbers, and re-establish himself as a "crease beast," avoiding the sophomore curse in the process.

In 2008-09, Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Steve Mason took the NHL by storm, posting a 33-20-7 record with 10 shutouts, a 2.29 GAA, and a very respectable .916 save percentage.

Mason struggled in his sophomore campaign, posting a 20-26-9 record to go along with a lofty 3.05 GAA and a less-than-spectacular .901 save percentage.

As outlined by my Ellis, Rinne, and Mason examples, rookie goaltenders often go one of two ways: They either fall flat on their faces, or—as Rinne did in his sophomore season—they land solidly on their feet.

This season, the Detroit Red Wings chose to move on from what they knew (Chris Osgood) in favor of rookie goaltender Jimmy Howard.

The experiment was successes. Howard posted a very respectable 37-15-10 record, with a 2.26 GAA and a .924 save percentage.

Howard followed up his regular season effort with a solid performance in the playoffs, going 5-7 with a 2.75 GAA and a .910 save percentage.

If not for a few bad goals and a little bit better luck, one could have envisioned Howard leading the Red Wings to the Western Conference Finals and, perhaps, the Stanley Cup.

Needless to say, given Howard’s overall performance, it appears as if Chris Osgood’s days as a Red Wing are numbered—or at least his playing time will be.

Unlike Ellis, Rinne, and Mason before him, Howard spent numerous seasons developing in the American Hockey League as a member of the Red Wings AHL affiliate Grand Rapids Griffins.

That said, make no mistake about it, Howard is, by the NHL’s definition, a rookie. He will have to endure the doubt that comes with the dreaded sophomore curse that many NHL rookie goalies go through.

The question is: Will Howard land on his feet as Rinne did, or will he take a step backwards, as was the case with Ellis and Mason?

Unfortunately, none of us have a crystal ball.

Well, the Bleacher Reports Detroit Red Wings Featured Columnist Matt Hutter does, but it appeared to be dysfunctional at times, especially when predicting the Wings would win Game Five against the San Jose Sharks! (Sorry, Mr. Hutter.)

Given his pedigree, overall talent, numbers, and maturity, it appears as if Howard will be the Red Wings goaltender for the foreseeable future. It also appears as if Howard is in the NHL to stay, and, as such, should have a successful sophomore season.

Also working in Howard’s favor is the fact that the Red Wings are riddled with veterans at forward and on defense, which should serve him well going forward.

With little in the way of replacements for Howard in the minor leagues, and with Chris Osgood looking more and more like a backup, the Red Wings will need to address Howard’s Unrestricted Free Agent status at the end of the 2010-11 season.

Clearly, Howard can expect a big raise from the paltry $750,000 he made this season and $800,000 he is scheduled to make in 2010-11.

More likely, the Red Wings will offer an extension to Howard this summer, avoiding free agency and giving the Howard the confidence to play with a nice chunk of change in the bank.

Is it possible the Red Wings may opt to let Howard play out the season on his $800,000 salary?

Perhaps.

With big-money contracts comes big pressure to perform, so there is the possibility the Wings decide to let Howard earn his contract next season.

Either way, big contract or no big contract, Howard will have plenty to contend with, not the least of which is the sophomore curse!

For the Red Wings' sake, let’s hope Howard is more Rinne than Mason. Let's face it. The Red Wings are in big trouble if Howard flops!

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www.theslapshot.com

Until next time,

Peace!