Is Jeff Green About To Be the Odd Man Out for the Oklahoma City Thunder?

Fresh off extending the defending champions to a tougher-than-expected six-game series in the first round of the playoffs, it’d be hard to fault the Oklahoma City Thunder for feeling satisfied with their accomplishments. 

After all, this same team that finished 50-32 this year ended last year 23-59.  That’s a 27 game differential from last year to this year: one of the greatest single season improvements in NBA history. 

With an expected $16 million in cap space this summer, OKC fans have even more of a reason to be optimistic.  With a bit of creative maneuvering, the Thunder could put themselves in a position to sign a max-contract free agent. 

Calling Chris Bosh?

Slight problem, though. That $16 million to spend sounds rosy now, and may have OKC fans clamoring for the Thunder to sign Bosh or another big man to help them get to the next level, but that cap space is more-or-less sleight of hand. 

Most of the Thunder’s main contributors, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Eric Maynor, and Serge Ibaka, are all still playing on their set-scale rookie contracts.  Green and Durant become eligible for five-year extensions this summer, Westbrook will in 2011 (barring a lockout), and the three others can sign extensions in 2012. 

Luckily for OKC, Thunder GM Sam Presti, widely viewed as one of the NBA’s most intelligent GMs currently, appears fully focused on the team’s long-term future. 

"We're not trying to add a whole lot of bells and whistles," Presti told the Oklahoman , regarding this summer’s likely free agency bonanza. "We can't let emotion drive our decisions. We haven't done that in the past in times of adversity, and I don't see us letting that happen this summer coming off a season where we've had a step in the right direction." 

Still, with all of those players due for raises in the next few years, it’s logical to ask if the Thunder have room to re-sign the entirety of their young core.  If not…who gets the axe?  

At this point, you’d have to pry Durant and Westbrook away from Presti’s cold, lifeless hands before he gave them up.  

Durant will sign a max contract at some point in the next few years.  Granted, it’s likely in his best interest to ink an extension this summer, as the new CBA that will come into effect after next season could reduce the maximum salaries for superstars such as Durant.  (If you’re curious, the max salary for anyone with six or less years of NBA experience is either $9,000,000 or 25 percent of the cap [whichever’s greater], with 10.5 percent annual raises.) 

Westbrook, if not a max-contract guy, isn’t that far off.  If any OKC fans still had questions about whether Westbrook could be a legitimate long-term point guard, he answered his critics far and away in the playoff series against the Lakers.  Presti stuck his neck out to pick Westbrook fourth in the 2008 draft, but that decision will prove to be one of the draft’s most clairvoyant steals of the decade. 

Harden, the No. 3 pick this past year, showed enough in his first season to more than justify his selection.  He shot nearly 38 percent from downtown as a rookie, giving the Thunder another pure shooter behind Durant who can help stretch the floor.  

That leaves Green, who statistically regressed somewhat in his third season.  After averaging 16.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.8 steals, and 38.9 percent three-point shooting last year, Green entered 2009-10 expected to officially break out as the Robin to Durant’s Batman. 

Instead, Westbrook took over the sidekick role, as Green’s averages dropped across the board.  Green averaged 15.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 33 percent shooting from downtown this year; most troublingly, he fell in love with that not-so-reliable three-point stroke far too often, suddenly thinking he was the second coming of Rashard Lewis. 

There’s no hiding the fact that Green’s undersized (6’9”, 240 pounds) for an NBA power forward, and the Lakers took great pleasure in having Pau Gasol expose that very fact the entire series.  When the Lakers remembered that a front court of Gasol and Andrew Bynum should absolutely be dominating Green and Nenad Krstic, the Lakers had their way with the Thunder down low. 

Green only averaged 11.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 29.6 percent three-point shooting in the Lakers series.  Given how much Gasol dominated their matchup, it should be raising legitimate questions in OKC about whether or not Green can continue as the team’s starting power forward if they don’t have a Shaquille O’Neal-esque center to suck up rebounds.

This isn’t to say Green isn’t a talented basketball player, or that he doesn’t deserve to be handsomely paid in the coming years.  It’s simply to say Green’s game happens to most resemble Durant’s, that of a small forward/stretch-4 hybrid, which could limit his contract potential with OKC. 

Over at Daily Thunder, the guys gave their take on Green when discussing 15 things they learned from the season: 

"I don’t think anyone really has a handle on what Green’s role will be with this team going forward…but the point remains: This team won 50 games with him starting at the four and playing almost 38 minutes a game. He did something right. Take away Jeff Green and you can probably take away seven or eight wins. Five games he made a huge play in come to mind immediately."

Without a doubt, Green contributes to the Thunder’s win totals, whether it shows up on the box score or not.  Green added an estimated 4.6 win shares this season to the Thunder.

The Daily Thunder folks suggest that the front office would like to keep him in their long-term plan.  The question is: Can they afford to? 

Can the Thunder afford to continue giving up size down low?  Can Green return to shooting closer to 40 percent from downtown than 30 percent?  Can the Thunder avoid the temptation to finally buy into the win-now attitude this summer with bigs like Bosh, Carlos Boozer, and David Lee on the market?  

Can the Thunder keep starting a player who had a PER of 13.82 this past season?  (Keeping in mind that the “average” NBA player has a PER of 15?) 

After all, as ESPN’s J.A. Adande aptly pointed out in a column last week, “the ruthless NBA is often kinder to day traders than to long-term investors.” 

Temptation will be great for the Thunder this summer.  But knowing that Durant will soon be earning $10 million more per year than he’s making know, and knowing that Westbrook will deserve a similar raise…the Thunder must continue to allocate their cap space carefully.

Here’s where it gets sticky: Green’s on the record as saying he’d like to try and sign a contract extension  with the Thunder this summer as well. 

If Green’s willing to sign for something around the mid-level exception [he made $3.5 million this year, $4.5 next year, and has a qualifying offer of $5.9 million in 2011-12] for the next five seasons, he’ll be able to remain with OKC, and the Thunder will have the luxury of figuring out how to best utilize Green’s talents, maybe he’ll turn into a deadly sixth man? 

But if Green’s hoping for a contract along the lines of $10 million/year…he’ll likely be forced to search elsewhere, given OKC’s cap situation.

In Presti’s season-ending press conference, he made no bones about the fact that the Thunder’s payroll will lead to some difficult decisions in the next few years. 

"We understand through a natural progression that our payroll is going to rise. That’s part of the reason we’ve taken a disciplined approach to this point. This business is about some long-range planning that has to go into this. It can’t always be about a short-term fix without cause for concern moving forward.

As we get to those points, we’ve tried to create flexibility so we can continue to add to our team. We’re not there, yet. But I know our ownership group is committed to winning and excited by the fact we have room to grow.”

That cap flexibility will be the serpent whispering in OKC’s ears all summer.

And if the Thunder can’t resist buying now on a big man to match up with the likes of a Gasol/Bynum front line, Green’s future with the team will be in doubt.