Duke-North Carolina Rivalry Preview Part 1: Who's Gone?

The 2009-10 college basketball season is barely behind us.

For the Duke Blue Devils, the season began with relatively low expectations in the wake of Gerald Henderson and Elliot Williams' departure. It ended with the Blue Devils hoisting their fourth NCAA championship trophy in Indianapolis.

The North Carolina Tar Heels started last season ranked No. 4 and No. 6 respectively in the ESPN/USA Today and AP polls. But Roy Williams' squad struggled all season, missing the NCAA tournament and losing to Dayton in the NIT finals.

Despite the near polar opposite results of the Tobacco Road rivals, both teams look poised to finish at the top of the ACC next year.

Who has the edge in 2010-11?

Even though the two shades of blue won't suit up for several months, it's not too early to analyze (and speculate upon) the not-too-distant future of college basketball's greatest rivalry.

Over the next few weeks, we'll examine each team in three key areas (one per week) to determine who has the upper hand going into next season—who's gone, who's back, and who's new.

Who's Gone?

Duke will probably start next season as the No. 1 team in America.

Winning a national championship generally gives your team a boost in the next season's preseason rankings, but will their high rank reflect their actual potential or will it simply be inflated due to recent success? After all, it's not like all the key players are back from the Blue Devils' championship squad.

Last season's Blue Devils were an upperclassmen-laden team, and they will lose three starters to graduation in Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas, and Brian Zoubek.

Scheyer is the biggest loss for Duke.  

He led the Blue Devils in scoring with 18.2 points per game.  He was also one of the most efficient point guards in the NCAA, boasting a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He was a clutch free-throw shooter, dangerous from beyond the arc, and underrated in terms of his ability to get into the lane.

Zoubek was one of the biggest keys to Duke's championship run last season.  

His late-season breakout put the Blue Devils on another level going into March. Although he rarely scored in volume, Zoubek proved to be one of the most effective rebounders in the country, especially on offense.

Thomas' absence on next season's Duke team will leave a big void in the Blue Devils' defense.  

Last season, Thomas frequently guarded the best player on the opposing team. His combination of size and quickness made him Duke's most effective and versatile defender.

Like Duke, the Tar Heels lose three starters in Marcus Ginyard, Deon Thompson, and Ed Davis.

Ginyard started the year strong for North Carolina, but he struggled in the second half of the season after an ankle injury.  

While not a consistent offensive threat, Ginyard earned the reputation as the Tar Heels' best perimeter defender. His defense kept him in the starting lineup all season, and the Heels will need another perimeter player to step up and adopt his defense first mentality next year.

Ginyard will certainly be missed next season, but his production won't be as difficult to replace as that of Davis and Thompson. Last season, they were the only players to average double figures in scoring for North Carolina. They also led the Tar Heels in rebounds.

Davis averaged a near double-double before a wrist injury in February sidelined him for the rest of the season. Apart from being North Carolina's best rebounder and second leading scorer, Davis also lead the Tar Heels in blocks per game and was North Carolina's most efficient offensive player.

While not a dominant player, Thompson gave North Carolina a reliable offensive option in the post. He led North Carolina in scoring last season and was the Tar Heels' second leading rebounder.

Obviously, both teams lose experienced and productive players. The big question is, who has more to replace?

The quick answer would be Duke.

With the loss of Duke's starters, the Blue Devils will need to replace 37 percent of their scoring output and 41 percent of their rebounding.

Those numbers are significant, but it's actually North Carolina who has the most to replace.

Although the players leaving Duke include a second-team All American and the nation's most effective offensive rebounder, North Carolina's departing players leave a bigger void for their team to fill.

Thompson, Ginyard, and Davis accounted for 46 percent of the Tar Heels scoring and 50 percent of their rebounding. That means they lose nearly 10 percent more production in each category than Duke.

North Carolina's incoming class might be talented, but some of the Tar Heels' young players will need to have big seasons to replace those numbers.

That's not to say Duke doesn't have a lot to replace as well.

The Blue Devils will need players to replace Scheyer's scoring output and floor control, and the younger post players have big shoes to fill (literally) if they hope to remain a dominant rebounding team.

That's no easy task.

At the moment, it looks like the Tar Heels have the steeper hill ahead, but stats alone don't communicate some of the things that Duke's seniors brought to the table.

Time will tell which team does a better job replacing what's lost. Both certainly have major adjustments ahead.

We'll find out who succeeds in those adjustments soon enough.