Aston Villa's Champions League Dream: Trapped in an Ineluctable Cycle

After watching the game against Sunderland at Villa Park, one thing became very clear: Aston Villa simply cannot finish fourth in the Premier League.

At the current rate, the Villans will unfortunately never achieve UEFA Champions League status.

They're trapped in an ineluctable cycle; Villa have hit their performance plateau and are physically unable to reach any further.

Champions League participation is an elusive ambition, and for Aston Villa it looks destined to remain a dream, not a reality.

And why? Well, before analysing the answer, it's down to that clichéd explanation of the lack of first-team players Villa manager Martin O'Neill has at his disposal.

Aston Villa's Player Famine

The reason Villa won't finish fourth this season is that, compared to fellow Champions League contenders Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, and Manchester City, they have a distinct shortage of capable personnel.

Therefore, this means come March and April, the players of Aston Villa cannot perform to their optimum level like they've done in previous months when they defeated Liverpool at Anfield, Chelsea at Villa Park, and Manchester United at Old Trafford.

They may be the only Premier League team unbeaten in 2010, but the fact remains that they have deleteriously drawn too many vital matches of rather significant importance in the race for fourth place.

And the consequence of Villa's player shortage means the regular first-teamers have to play in more matches than players of other teams like Tottenham and Manchester City.

Thus, the subsequent problem is that these players become more fatigued with less recovery opportunities; that leaves these players more susceptible to injury, fatal lapses in concentration, and other general mistakes, such as momentarily lapses in technique. In addition to all that, the lessening overall fitness in the latter stages of the match means they're less likely to score crucial game-winning goals.

The cumulative effect of all this debilitating fatigue, which wouldn't affect other clubs as much due to the number of players they possess, is a lower standard of performance than they're capable of.

Whilst the Aston Villa players are Premier League performers who compete at the highest level in the sport, the muscular and cardiovascular stamina demands placed on them are amongst the highest in European football due to the number of matches they all play.

Villa have the strength to achieve success at the highest level, but unlike every other club currently above them in the Premier League, they do not have the aforementioned strength of depth.

Aston Villa's Player Famine Explained

The reason behind Aston Villa's distinct shortage in capable personnel is the fact that they simply cannot bring in a sufficient amount of new players.

And that's because of Randy Lerner, the club's owner. He hasn't got the finances required to take the Villans to that elusive next level.

Of course Lerner has done a terrific job at Villa Park so far, and it can well be justified that he is the man who has helped them become who they are now—strong competitors in the upper echelons of the Premier League, Carling Cup finalists, and FA Cup semifinalists.

But he just doesn't have the funds to bring in as many quality players as Aston Villa needs to get into the Champions League.

This is because there will be players at Villa who next season won't have the quality they possess this season, or that just didn't have the quality in the first place (e.g. Marlon Harewood, Moustapha Salifou, Wilfred Bouma, etc.), and they'll need replacing.

There are also players who could very well be purchased by arguably more prestigious clubs (e.g. James Milner, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor, etc.) and they too will need replacing if an offer too good to turn down appears, or the player wants to leave.

And then there are players who probably won't be satisfied with their lack of first-team opportunities and will want to leave (e.g. Nigel Reo-Coker, Steve Sidwell, Habib Beye, Isaiah Osbourne, etc.).

By the time all the changes are made at Aston Villa—and even if none are made—the club simply won't have the money to bring in four or five players of current starting 11 capability to give the team strength in depth that other clubs above them have.

Thus the Villans will go back to square one again come next season; they'll have quality players who can beat the top teams, but will have to be utilized to the point where fatigue injures them and/or severely inhibits the quality of their performance, and ultimately, the team's overall performance.

It really is an ineluctable cycle for Aston Villa Football Club.

Why are Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Tottenham Hotspur above Aston Villa in the Premier League table?

Because they have the large amount of decent players and money in the bank that Aston Villa just don't have, and can't get.

At a later date in the near future, Yoosof Farah will write about the possible solutions Aston Villa might utilise to solve the problem that is this inescapable cycle they're trapped in.