2010 NCAA Tournament: Ranking The Sweet 16, 8-5

Here’s the third episode of our four-part “Ranking the Sweet 16″ series.  In this post, we’ll cover the 8-5 teams and we’ll wrap up with who we think are the four best teams left in the tournament on Thursday before the games start. We start with…

8. Michigan State Spartans

Seed: No. 5, Midwest Region

How’d They Get Here?: Defeated No. 12 New Mexico St. 70-67, Defeated No. 4 Maryland 85-83

Outlook: To put it simply, the outlook is extremely bleak for Sparty.  They’re the George Costanza of the NCAA Tournament: they’re enigmatic, they’re underachievers, they are up and down as a team, and….they’re balding?

Yet, somehow, George always seems to luck into a date, a new job, or a way to weasel his way out of a bad situation.  That’s where Tom Izzo’s squad finds itself now, in a bad situation after the loss of star point guard Kalin Lucas to a torn Achilles’ tendon.

The Spartans have lived by the skin of their teeth (that phrase makes zero sense, by the way) thus far in the tournament, squeaking by New Mexico St. and getting one of the biggest shots in tourney history from Korie Luscious to get past Maryland after it looked like Greivis Vasquez had saved the day once again for the Terps. 

It’s no secret that Izzo’s squad has overachieved year after year in the NCAAs, but now the Green and White will have to play Cinderella killers as they’ll face America’s favorite UNI Panthers in the Sweet 16.

The athleticism and length should be able to bother the Panthers, but many are picking UNI to get to the Elite Eight simply because Lucas is out. I don’t buy that. Michigan St is filled with guys who can step up the scoring load with Raymar Morgan, Durrell Summers, and Korie Luscious all able to carry a team offensively on any given night. If the Spartans can use their perimeter prowess to lock down UNI’s set offense, they’ll be able to send Cinderella home in a pumpkin (sorry).

Player to Watch: Raymar Morgan hasn’t really lived up to the billing in his four years in East Lansing, but this is his time to put the team on his back and carry them to a Final Four.  A team like Michigan State shouldn’t have trouble with UNI, and they’ll get a very familiar Buckeye team for a chance to get to Indianapolis.

7. Baylor Bears

Seed: No. 3, South Region

How’d They Get Here?: Defeated No. 14 Sam Houston St 68-59, Defeated No. 11 Old Dominion 76-68

Outlook: Baylor was the darling pick from the South Region by many people who thought Duke would underachieve and Villanova was too soft (well, they’re half right so far), and for the first time in school history, they’re in the Sweet 16. 

To advance farther, they’ll have to face another Cinderella in the St. Mary’s Gaels. The Bears have depth and athleticism in both the back and frontcourts, even if they lack a certain star power that seems necessary at tournament time.

They’ll have to focus on St. Mary’s star Omar Samhan, which shouldn't be a problem for the Bears’ many athletic big men. If St. Mary’s is going to beat the Bears, they’ll have to do it with three-point shooting, but Baylor’s guards are also quick enough to guard the perimeter. 

If LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter (Baylor definitely wins the tourney based on names only) can get to the perimeter to get a hand up on shooters and use their athleticism to get into the lane and score, I think Baylor could run away with this one.

Player to Watch: Dunn isn’t a household name at this moment, but he’s just another example of how strong the Big XII is from top to bottom with quality guards. There is no doubt that with his scoring prowess and athleticism, he could become well-known by the time Baylor’s run ends.

6. Kansas State Wildcats

Seed: No. 2, West Region

How’d They Get Here?: Defeated No. 15 North Texas 82-62, Defeated No. 7 BYU 84-72

Outlook: The Wildcats have looked as good as any team in this tournament thus far, and with their guard play they’re a tough team to handle on the defensive end. 

Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen can tend to be a little up and down with their consistency, but when they’re up, they’re as good as any backcourt in the country.  They’ve been on fire so far in the tournament, particularly Pullen, and they’ve got just enough inside presence to handle any team that comes their way.

KSU has been able to almost sneak by under the radar so far, beating the teams they are supposed to beat and not really facing any tough tests, but they’ll get a different look when the Xavier Musketeers come to play them this weekend. 

Xavier is a smart, tough team that has the bodies to hang with the ‘Cats, and I think KSU could really struggle guarding the Crawford/Holloway tandem of the Musketeers. If you enjoy solid backcourt play, don’t miss this matchup.

Player to Watch: Pullen lit up the Cougars for a career-high 34 points in their second round matchup and is 9-18 from three-point range so far in the tournament.  While he shot just 39 percent from outside during the season, Pullen’s getting hot at the right time.  Fear the beard, indeed.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

Seed: No. 2, Midwest Region

How’d They Get Here?: Defeated No. 15 UCSB 68-51, Defeated No. 10 Georgia Tech 75-66

Outlook: Evan Turner, Evan Turner, Evan Turner, Evan Turner….well, I considered just typing two paragraphs of Turner’s name over and over again, but I suppose I’ll take a stab at a little analysis. 

Turner really is the Buckeyes’ entire team, but that’s not to imply that it’s a bad thing.  Turner struggled in the first round as UCSB really shut him down, but it really allowed other players a chance to carry the load and they were able to get by. 

The National Player of the Year came to play against the Yellow Jackets, though, putting up 24 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists to help the Buckeyes move into the Sweet 16.

Turner has the ability and talent to put up a triple-double on any night, so the Volunteers will really have to turn up the defensive pressure to keep him under wraps. In my opinion it will be up to senior guard Jon Diebler to step up and hit his three-point shots if the Buckeyes want to advance.

Player to Watch: See previous gushing paragraph on Turner.