March Madness: The Final Four Teams Who Get To Indianapolis

Arinze Onuaku’s injury has forced me to turn this year’s bracket prediction into a “Multiple Endings” story. Don’t get me wrong, we’re not hyper-geeks playing Dungeons and Dragons here. We may be wasting billions of dollars in worker productivity, but we’re not killing Orcs with plus-10 vorpal swords of magic.

So, in the West, I’m sorry to say I’m crawfishing a bit. I think Syracuse is clearly the class of the region, when healthy. Even when they’re not at full strength, I like the Orangemen to come out of the opening weekend, giving Onuaku enough time to heal up and play in the round of 16 and the Elite Eight game.

If he’s not healthy by the Elite Eight, I’m betting on Kansas State to take down the Orange of Syracuse.

My Midwest Bracket was fairly predictable with teams playing to seed until the regional final where I’ve got Ohio State, riding the hot hand of Evan Turner , over the Kansas Jayhawks.

Do I think the Jayhawks are the best team in America? Yes. But I don’t think Kansas has an answer for talented wing Evan Turner. In a tournament one-and-done setting, give me the team with answers.

This means I’ve got Syracuse and Ohio State in Game One in Indianapolis.

Syracuse vs. Ohio State

First a primer on Syracuse . They run zone, but it’s the type of zone that allows opponents to get into the lane as much as they’d like. The premise of such a counter-intuitive defensive strategy is based on taking away the two easiest shots in college basketball, the 3-ball and the dunk/layup.

Syracuse harasses offenses around the arc with perimeter size and length with this premise in mind. They’re effective in contesting most every 3 because they really aren’t defending penetration in the traditional sense. They actually funnel dribblers to their back-line fly swatters, betting that guards and wings aren’t good enough to finish over Onuaku, Jackson, and Johnson. So, offenses can have all the mid-range they can eat, and most dribble penetration.

This is where Ohio State becomes such a bad matchup for the Orangemen. Lighty, Turner, and Buford are all 6′ 4″ or taller, and athletic. They all have pretty decent touch from mid-range, especially Evans. All three are good finishers at the rim.

Jon Diebler is the sniper beyond the arc, so he’ll get plenty of attention considering he shoots well over 40 percent distance. He also goes 6′ 5″ and can handle a bit.

These four players couldn’t be any more of a tonic to counter Syracuse’s zone if you were able to hand pick personnel.

On defense, the Buckeyes may have some trouble with Syracuse’s double post look with Onuaku and Jackson on both blocks. The Orangemen like to run their 3-2 double post offense with plenty of block to block screening and ball reversal to find mismatches inside. Rarely do defenses have two solid post defenders, so Syracuse’s offense is designed with this likelihood in mind.

When you throw in Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins, and Scoop Jardine on the perimeter, it’s tough to find enough help to allocate to your mismatched post defender.

Ohio State has outs on defense, however, in the form of their 2-3 zone. It’s a credible zone the Buckeyes have run all year, so it’s not something they’re throwing together at the last minute. Teams that zone on short notice typically suffer from an avalanche of busted assignments. Not the Buckeyes.

Plus, every player on the floor is at least 6′4″, so Ohio State can make ball movement difficult and still rebound out of their zone without blockout assignments.

For these reasons, I like the Buckeyes to win and advance against the ‘Cuse or the KSU Wildcats if you can tolerate some hedging.

West Virginia vs. Baylor

This game is tougher to predict because there’s a variable that is impossible to know until the game begins. How is the game going to be officiated?

A tight game favors Baylor because a bevy of foul calls will prevent them from being bullied on the boards. On offense, quick whistles on drivers and cutters will open up the floor for Baylor’s quick guards because WVU will have to play softer.

That’s important because as long and as athletic as Baylor is, they don’t have the wide bodies along the frontcourt necessary to withstand dislodging and chicken fighting under the glass. On offense, the Bears will have a hard time screening a more physical WVU bunch that will be switching some of these screens to boot. The bane of all dribble penetration is handchecking, which is pretty common when WVU is playing.

Even if the officials call a tight game, the Bears are going to have a tough time rebounding out of their zone against the Mountaineer brawlers. It’s one thing to force a miss, it’s entirely another thing if you’re a slightly built Anthony Jones and you’re trying to keep Devin Ebanks off the glass. WVU puts four of these type players on the floor; guys that can jump out of the gym with you, and bench press twice as much as you

If the Mountaineers dominate both backboards, they need only shoot in the high 30s or low 40s to win the game, giving them a big margin for error. Baylor doesn’t have that luxury. They need to shoot it well, and the game needs to be officiated tightly. That’s almost too much to ask.

I like WVU to advance.

Finals prediction up next.

Editor’s note : If you’re using my picks in your own brackets , God help you. But if you use them anyway, and in the interest of time, I’ve got Ohio State winning it all. Total points 142.

I’ll tell you why later.

Kevins writes the leading college hoops blog March To March

Follow him on Twitter: @MarchToMarch