It's Official: How the Referees Will Affect March Madness Games

It’s common knowledge that officiating gets a little tighter in tournament play, especially when compared to the infrequency of whistles blown as conference heavyweights are throwing haymakers.

If you want scientific proof, go look at over/under numbers for total points scored in tournament games versus conference games involving the same teams and you’ll find the numbers are higher on average. Vegas knows that tournament settings yield more foul calls. We all do.

Sure, some of the lower point totals are a function of familiarity with opponents in conference play, which drives scoring down, but some of it is related to the “let ‘em play” philosophy prevalent in conferences like the Big 12, Big 10, and Big East. Whistles, or lack thereof, drive scoring.

You see, more fouls don’t just mean more free throws, they also mean softer defense because players are less prone to bump a cutter, hand check a dribbler, or swim move a post player to get into a front position because they fear the whistle.

This opens up the floor and benefits the team with more basketball skills. It helps the teams with better guard play, and it hurts the teams that rely on being physical.

Tightly officiated games can have little effect on some teams and a profound effect on others. It all depends on factors including style of play, depth, and matchups. Let’s take a look at who needs to fear the tight whistle, who welcomes it, and why.

Tops Teams

Kentucky

The Wildcats are deep, athletic, and can hurt you on the perimeter or in the paint. If you asked Coach Cal publicly he’d tell you it didn’t matter. Privately, he wants you to try to guard Wall and Bledsoe without hand-checking.

He’d also appreciate a quick whistle or two on dislodge fouls in the post, where even good teams only have one decent post defender.

Kansas

The Kansas Jayhawks benefit more from the “let ‘em play” mentality than having the game called tightly.

This Kansas Jayhawk team isn’t overly-reliant on dribble penetration on offense, and I’m sure they’d be willing to trade some bumps on Aldrich and Morris if they were allowed to return the favor on the other end.

Also, if there’s one thing that can derail the Kansas Jayhawk train it’s a couple cheap fouls on Sherron Collins, forcing Tyshawn Taylor to make things go.

Duke

For Duke it all depends on the matchup. If they’re playing a team that can out-physical them, then yes, they want it called tight.

If they’re playing a guard-oriented mid-major they can handle inside then they’d to be able to bang and board inside and then be physical with quicker guards on the perimeter.

Syracuse

The Orangemen are an interesting case with respect to officiating preference. On one hand, their zone allows them to hide players on defense so a tightly officiated ballgame should give them a competitive advantage.

On the other hand, Syracuse’s lack of depth, especially with Onuaku injured, makes a tightly called game problematic. Two early fouls on Rick Jackson and the notoriously stingy backline of the Syracuse zone goes from intimidating to vulnerable with Johnson, Joseph, and a big that rarely plays.

West Virginia

The best example of a team that wants the officiating to be looser than normal. The Mountaineers challenge every square foot inside the arc, and they do it with ferocity.

Tight whistles mean the Mountaineers have to ratchet down their pressure or face a mountain of free throws. Proof positive is their game at Connecticut. After a Jim Calhoun strategic technical , followed by an avalanche of whistles, the Husky guard tandem of Dyson and Walker were able to get into the lane with impunity.

The results were 42 UCONN foul shots—26 of which were taken by Dyson and Walker—a West Virginia loss, and Bob Huggins being tossed from the game. Yeah, I’d say the Mountaineers would like it if the officials let them play.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State may be the one physical big dog that wants the game to be called tightly, even if they do have a short bench.

On offense, the Buckeyes are reliant on Buford and Lighty penetrating to an extent, but more importantly, having a guy like Evan Turner means that you’re a candidate for officiating star treatment.

Especially when your star is a dynamic player that can get his offense in a variety of ways, and doesn’t need a teammate to get him the ball.

Defensively, the Buckeyes can play a credible zone to weather a whistle-blowing storm.

Marquette

Finally there’s Marquette and similar teams. You know, any perimeter-oriented team that relies on dribble penetration for offense and struggles on the glass on defense. I threw Marquette in here to represent the “little guy” in the tournament. Literally.

The Golden Eagles need whistles, and lots of them—especially against teams that are bigger and more physical. In conference, that’s basically every team in the Big East not named Villanova.

In fact, Marquette is so reliant on dribble penetration that a big part of the Eagle’s offense is using five-man Lazar Hayward on the perimeter to take his defender to the hole if he hugs up on the threat of a jump shot.

If the Hayward’s over-sized defender is allowed to hand-check him, the officials have just negated a big part of Marquette’s offense, which happened a lot in conference play.

Conversely, if Hayward picks up a couple whistles on the defending big, not only has he generated offense, but he’s helped his team on defense by removing a post-up and offensive rebounding threat on the other end.

Officials, love them or hate them, will play a big role in this tournament. The fact that officiating is tighter in the tournament than it is conference play is part of the reason talking heads carp about the importance of guard play in the tournament. It is important, and tight officiating is one of the reasons why.

For examples, watch Marquette and Villanova in the Big Dance and they’ll look like different teams than the ones that toiled in conference play.

It’s part of the reason mid-majors and smaller teams fare better during the Madness.

It’s the main reason Cinderella is a hot-shooting combo guard.

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