Florida-Mississippi State: The SEC Tournament Bubble Game of the Night

Tonight's SEC Tournament quarterfinal between Florida and Mississippi State has stark and simple meaning.

Win and your team could be dancing. Lose and it's hello, NIT.

While Mississippi State may need another win to be in, with this year's extremely weak bubble, a victory over Florida would do wonders for their candidacy.

At the same time, Florida would probably be safely in with a win, and our power ratings-based projections see Florida as the slight favorite.

These two teams are a study in contrasts. Mississippi State, led by the NCAA's all-time leading shot blocker, Jarvis Varnado, plays extremely good interior defense, while Florida's balanced offensive attack has allowed them to score an impressive 1.05 points per possession.

The Bulldogs are third in the country in block percentage and eighth in two-point field goal defense. This adds up to Mississippi State being ranked second in the country in our opponent shooting efficiency rankings.

Florida takes excellent care of the ball, turning it over only 15 percent of the time. They also crash the offensive glass, rebounding almost 39 percent of their misses. However, Florida's greatest offensive strength may well be its balance. No less than six Gators play major usage roles in the offense, and in most offensive sets, everyone on the floor is a scoring threat.

Mississippi State, on the other hand, has struggled to find offensive efficiency when they are not shooting the lights out. For a tall team, the Bulldogs do not hit the offensive boards well, rebounding only 30 percent of their misses, and they do not get easy points in transition, as they do not force many turnovers.

It seems that only when the Bulldogs manage to shoot above 50 percent from the field are they very likely to win. Unfortunately, as the table above shows, in SEC play MSU has had more trouble reaching this benchmark.

In their regular season loss to Florida, the Bulldogs only shot 45 percent from the field. Mississippi State's impressive defense may slow down Florida's balanced attack, but their offensive will need to respond with a better-than-average night to help keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive.

By John Ezekowitz courtesy of TeamRankings.com