Big Ten Tournament Preview: Can Minnesota Upset Michigan State?

For the teams like Big Ten Tournament No. 6 seed Minnesota that want to keep playing past this weekend, they have to play well this weekend. At 19-12, Minnesota is right on the bubble and a win against 3-seed Michigan State would certainly resonate among the NCAA Selection Committee come Sunday.

Our Big Ten Conference Tournament Projections think an upset here is a pretty good possibility.

How feasible is a Minnesota win tonight? In their previous meeting, Minnesota led the entire of the game until the last 1:30. Out of steam from an overtime loss a few nights before, the Gophers went on to lose by one.

Keep in mind that was also the first game without starting point guard, Al Nolen, who has been ruled academically ineligible for the remainder of the year.

So expect tonight’s contest to be hotly contested, primarily because with the exception of win-loss records, these teams look extremely similar from a statistical point of view (See full matchup analysis).

On offense, they are both the elite of the Big Ten in scoring and efficiency. Minnesota leads the conference at 73.5 points/game with Michigan State not far behind at 72.8 points/game; offensive efficiency is separated by one one-hundredth of a point (1.077 versus 1.067, respectively).

The only significant discrepancy on the offensive side is offensive rebounding percentages; Michigan St holds the advantage at 39.7 percent compared to 32.0 percent. I’d watch this stat throughout the night as total rebounds were close last game (29-32), with the exception of four more offensive rebounds for Michigan State (6-10).

Defensively, the story is no different. While both teams fall into the top half of the Big Ten, they are not extremely impressive. Both teams hold their opponents to effective field goal percentages of 46 percent. The Gophers have been giving up .935 points per possession this season compared to the Spartans .929 points per possession.

Statistically, these defenses are nearly mirror images with no one holding any real statistical advantage.

This should definitely be a game worth watching, as Minnesota’s season is on the line. Don't be surprised if it's a nail biter, and rebounding performance could likely be the difference maker.

By Neil Curran courtesy of TeamRankings.com