Bubble Game of the Night: Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina

Georgia Tech and North Carolina were not supposed to meet on Thursday at the ACC Tournament. In the preseason, most experts would have thought that this game would be for seeding or possibly for the ACC Tournament title. These teams have been two of the biggest disappointments in college basketball this year. Their obvious physical talents have not produced enough wins.

The postseason offers a fresh start. Georgia Tech must beat UNC to keep their at-large hopes alive, while the Tarheels are hoping to start an extremely unlikely run (how unlikely? according to our 2010 ACC tournament projections , UNC should win the title only one in every 130 tries ) to the ACC crown. Georgia Tech comes in a slight favorite, but there is really not as much separating these teams as their records would suggest.

The Yellow Jackets and Tarheels are surprisingly similar offensively. Both score 1.01 points per possession, get about 38.5% of their offensive rebound opportunities, and struggle with turnovers. The real difference is on the defensive end. Georgia Tech plays very good field goal defense, allowing their opponents to make only 42% of their attempts from the field. North Carolina is more permissive, allowing opponents to make 47% of their attempts. (See full UNC vs. Georgia Tech matchup analysis )

This is a key stat for this game, as this season UNC seems to play significantly better defense when they shoot the ball better. Thus, if Georgia Tech can limit UNC on the defensive end, it could have positive consequences for their offensive efficiency. Below is a scatter plot of North Carolina's defensive efficiency and field goal percentage. This year, there is a correlation between when UNC shooting the ball well and playing better defense.

If Georgia Tech can force North Carolina into a bad shooting night, just as they did in their regular season win over UNC, then they stand a much better chance of winning the game, as there may be defensive implications for UNC as well.

The key for North Carolina will likely be to force Georgia Tech into turnovers and convert those turnovers into fast break points. The Jackets have not had a true point guard all year, and their three starting guards, Mike Bell, Iman Shumpert, and Mfon Udofia, all have assist to turnover ratios under one. If North Carolina can keep the pace high through turnovers and easy baskets, they could pull off the minor upset.

By John Ezekowitz courtesy of TeamRankings.com