SEC Basketball Tournament: Round One Predictions Not a Simple Task

LSU vs. Tennessee

The Bengal Tigers (11-19, 2-14) have no chance of upsetting the Tennessee Vols. In fact, the Volunteers have the inside track to the championship due to their seeding and draw against the West Division teams.

Since the loss to Florida on the road, the Vols rebounded with wins at home over Kentucky and Arkansas, then went on the road and defeated the West Division Champion Mississippi State Bulldogs.

While the Wildcats kicked and scratched in the second half and nearly overcame the Vols, they held on for a nine point victory. Wins over Arkansas and Mississippi were more convincing and never in doubt.

If UT doesn't expend too much energy defeating LSU, they should win the second round game and end up in the finals.

Prediction: Volunteers by 17.

Alabama vs. South Carolina

On January 26, the Gamecocks defeated the Kentucky Wildcats and held an overall record of 12-8 (3-3 SEC). Then Georgia came to Columbia and the Gamecocks nearly lost to the last place team in the East Division. While they escaped with a one-point victory, it seems that this was a blow to the team confidence.

Meanwhile, opponents were planning a defensive strategy to diminish the utility of point guard Devan Downey's skills and forcing others on the team to take shots. That strategy paid off for opponents.

Following a loss on the road at Tennessee and a home victory against the Florida Gators, the Gamecocks dropped the next six games, three at home and three on the road. Looking back, it was one of the toughest stretches in the SEC schedule for any team.

USC went on the road to play Georgia and Arkansas. The loss to the Bulldogs was tightly contested as in the first game.

Against the Hogs, the wheels fell off and the Razorbacks defeated the road weary team 79-92.

When the Gamecocks returned home, the Tennessee Volunteers were rested and waiting. Bruce Pearl and his Volunteer gang put an old fashioned whippin' on the home team, the final score of 63-55 didn't even begin to tell the story.

The Carolina boys looked winded and desperate. Darin Horn was in for a real surprise in Lexington.

The No. 1 team in the country, still stinging from the loss to USC, hung 82 points on way to a 21-point victory over the Gamecocks.

Carolina then traveled home for a two game stand. Mississippi State, leading the West Division defeated Downey, et al by 13.

In the final home game, Alabama rolled into town and left with a nine point victory while their best player (Jamychal Green) was benched for breaking team rules.

Out of nowhere, the Gamecocks salvaged the season by going on the road and defeating the Vanderbilt Commodores, 77-73. Downey came out of his funk and scored 26 while Sam Muldrow poured in 20 from the forward position.

In their last outing, the Gamecocks were 49 percent from the field, 33 percent from 3-point range, and 70 percent from the charity stripe. While Vandy was even better from the free throw line, the difference was the points piled on by Muldrow from underneath.

USC may have turned things around at just the right time.

Alabama has athletes at every position. Youth and depth is their major concern. First year coach Anthony Grant has had a tough year shaping this team into the type of team he would like to put on the court week in and week out.

Having said that, The Men in Crimson have won their last two and seem to have figured out the recipe for victory: Closing out in the last ten minutes of the game.

This season has been exhausting for the young coach and his team. They started the SEC schedule at 10-4 with respectable losses to Purdue (No. 5), Kansas State (No. 22), Cornell (NCAA bound), and Florida State. The loss to Purdue set the stage of things to come for the young Crimson Tide team.

The Boilermaker's overcame a 16 point second-half deficit to pull out an eight-point win at Coleman Coliseum. The Tide made just three baskets in the final 14 minutes of the game.

Later in the season, the Crimson Tide lost to Ole Miss after leading by 23 points in the second half, and UGA after leading by 13 with under ten minutes remaining in the game.

Three games were lost by one point after leading the majority of the game and the entire second half, only to lose the lead in the last minute. On the road against in-state rival Auburn, Alabama held the lead or was tied with the Tigers the entire game until the last four seconds. The Tide lost by one.

After a three game skid, the Tide finished the regular season with wins against South Carolina and Auburn. The Pachyderms finally learned how to hold a lead and pull ahead even further in the waning minutes rather than wilt.

I believe this is the toughest game of the first day to make a call. For South Carolina to finish like they did against Vandy was totally unexpected.

Alabama has shown promise all year but did not deliver victories to the fans despite good fan support. The last two games give the Tide faithful hope for a strong showing in the Tournament.

Prediction: Alabama wins by eight.

Florida vs. Auburn

Lebo has been a plainsmen for all of six years and has not delivered what was promised. They did not finish strong against in-state rival Alabama and they are 5-5 in the last ten games. They have played with a lot of energy and pulled out the unexpected victory against Mississippi State on March 3, at home in the final home game of the season.

During the regular season, Florida defeated the Tigers 78-70. Dewayne Reed led all scorers with 22 points on the day. The leading scorer for UF was forward Chandler Parsons with 17 points.

Both teams shot under 25 percent from beyond the trey, but Florida shot better at the line. Moreover, Florida was at the line much more that Auburn, hitting 32-40 FT attempts while Auburn was 17-22.

As a team, UF has averaged 70 percent from the free throw line on the season. If they shoot their average in this game, they may find themselves on the losing end of the first round contest, particularly if Auburn gets hot from 3-point range. The Tigers are shooting 33 percent on the year.

Prediction: Upset of the day, Auburn by five.

Arkansas vs. Georgia

Georgia is a talented team that has not found a way into the world of consistent play. They have quality wins against Georgia Tech (No. 17), Tennessee (No. 8), and Vanderbilt (No. 20).

All five SEC victories were at home at Stegman Coliseum. They have faltered on the road, going 0-8, including a loss to LSU on March 6.

Arkansas, on the other hand, plays well and then plays poorly without explanation. After nine games into the SEC schedule, they sat in the drivers seat of the West Division at 6-3, only to lose six of the last seven games of the season.

Four of the six losses were on the road; the two home losses included a blowout by South Carolina, 92-79, and falling to Ole Miss in the season finale 68-66 after leading by 10 points with 12:42 remaining in the game.

Ole Miss took the lead in the game on a second chance three point basket by Chris Warren following a missed free throw by Murphy Holloway. In the last five seconds of the game, Arkansas missed three shots from under the basket that would have sent the game into overtime.

Arkansas has shown some resilience this season and have wins on the road.

UGA freshman Trey Thompkins is 6'9", 247 pounds, and scores 17.7 points per game. He leads the team with 33 blocks and 239 rebounds on the season. Guard Travis Leslie, 6'4" 202 lbs., has 29 blocks on the season and 13 ppg.

If Leslie man's up on Courtney Fortson and keeps the feisty Razorback guard under 10 points for the game, despite the earlier loss to Arkansas, Georgia wins by 10.

If Fortson is left to run wild and distribute the ball to the open man, the Dogs are ousted in the first round.

Prediction: Georgia by four.