ACC Hoops: Duke Blue Devils vs. Maryland Terrapins: How It Plays Out

Much like the huge Big East battle between Syracuse and Villanova last Saturday night, the game between Duke and Maryland in College Park will be played with a conference championship and No. 1 national seed on the line.

In the first game between these two ACC powerhouses, the Terrapins lost contact early on, falling behind by more than twenty points to the Blue Devils early in the second half.

The talented Maryland backcourt of Vasquez, Hayes, and Mosely were careless with the basketball, combining for 8 turnovers which led to easy transition buckets for Duke.

Maryland will need to do a better job protecting the basketball on senior night to have a chance to upset the Blue Devils and claim a share of the ACC regular season championship. Let’s talk matchups.

Backcourt Battle

Nolan Smith vs. Greivis Vasquez
John Scheyer vs. Eric Hayes
Kyle Singler vs. Sean Mosley

I’ve taken the liberty of placing Kyle Singler at the 3 spot, although he’s quite capable of playing the 4 spot to create favorable matchups for the Devils.

His importance in this game is as a perimeter player because as Gary Williams knows, you have to address Singler doing damage around the arc before you worry about his interior game.

Unlike most 3 guard clubs, Maryland deploys 3 plus-sized backcourt players considering Vasquez, Hayes, and Mosley go 6-6, 6-4, and 6-4 respectively. They certainly have cover options defensively when Duke plays its base personnel of Scheyer, Singler, Smith, Zoubek, and Thomas.

Williams can choose to matchup strength-on-strength and go with Vasquez on Singler, but this exposes his talented senior guard to not only fatigue on the defensive end but foul trouble when Singler starts playing with his back to the basket or becomes a factor on the boards.

If I’m the Terrapin coach. I take Vasquez, Mr. Tortuga himself, and put him on Thomas and let Brandon Milbourne float around the perimeter guarding Singler. You simply have to protect arguably the ACC’s best player, Greivis Vasquez.

If Coach K wants to tweak his motion game to isolate Lance Thomas on Vasquez, and run offense through a forward known as a defensive/rebounding specialist, so be it.

It’s much better than Vasquez running through a bunch of screens chasing Singler and getting fatigued, or picking up two cheap post fouls costing him 15 minutes of playing time. In other words, if Duke beats me by running offense through Lance Thomas I just tip my cap.

When defending the Terps, however, Duke doesn’t have the same luxury of putting one of Thomas or Zoubek on Hayes, Mosley, or Vasquez to protect Singler because the Duke forward duo will get absolutely lost on the perimeter.

Coach K’s only option is to play Singler on Hayes or Mosley which makes the offensive emphasis for Gary Williams easy to figure out.

If I’m Williams, I make sure whichever guard Singler is matched up on touches the ball multiple times on virtually every halfcourt possession. You can actually defend Singler while your team is on offense by forcing him to use valuable energy defending quicker guards or running through screens.

Now that Duke has shortened its bench, this strategy should bear fruit in the form of tired legs for the star Duke forward in the second half.

Frontcourt Battle

Brian Zoubek vs. Jordan Williams
Lance Thomas vs. Landon Milbourne
Miles Plumlee vs. Dino Gregory

We’ve talked about the various defensive machinations in the backcourt, and make no mistake about it, the backcourt battle will largely decide this game, but frontcourt players have feelings too so we must address their importance.

In all seriousness, the game can really turn here in Duke’s favor if their frontcourt can get a win on the glass.

The turnover battle should probably be close to even, but if Duke can outrebound the Terps like they did in Camerion Indoor they have more of a margin for error when it comes to shooting the ball because they’ll have extra possessions.

I actually think this game will be more of an open floor styled affair than the one in Cameron, so don’t be surprised if the Plumlee brothers play more than their season averages considering they’re much more mobile than Zoubek.

Duke frontcourt players hedging on screens and contesting perimeter jumpers will be at premium in this ballgame and these athletic skills aren’t in Brian Zoubek’s wheelhouse, so to speak.

Keys to the Game

1) Making the other team’s star defend. The explanation was hashed out above, but watch for this game within the game tonight. Coach K will try to make Vasquez expend energy defending. and Williams will go after Singler for the same reason. The coach that can devise a scheme to attack the other team’s star will have a huge advantage.

2) Whistles. Officiating is important in every game but when it comes to Duke and Maryland there is a higher level of contentiousness with this subject for historical reasons. The gamesmanship that is likely to occur from both coaches on this front is one of the more interesting things you’ll see in college basketball. Let’s hope the ESPN cameras accommodate, and keep panning to the coaches.

Interestingly enough, both coaches will be playing the Duke card with the officials this game. Coach K will be in the officials ear about not getting calls because “we’re Duke,” while Williams will do the same except he’ll be saying he’s not getting calls because “they’re Duke.” Don’t be surprised if you see a strategic technical foul call or two especially if one team falls behind.

3) Stopping Duke’s Motion. Here’s a detailed explanation of what Duke is doing on offense this season and why they’re so successful even without a truly elite, blow-by point guard.

One way Maryland can combat this motion is to switch all guard to guard screens and exchanges, especially on the weak side. The downside is it’s likely that the Terps will find Landon Milbourne on Scheyer, or worse yet, Eric Hayes on Kyle Singler on certain possessions.

If Maryland does decide to do any switching, I would do it later in the shot clock so Duke doesn’t have time to find the mismatch and isolate. But switching is a good way to take away easy buckets generated by the Duke motion game.

Overall, this sets up to be a classic ACC battle. If I was going to make a prediction I’d say that the intangibles point to a Maryland upset. The reason I’m not making a prediction is the coach roaming the sideline for Duke.

In big games with No. 1 seeds and conference championships on the line, it’s not wise to be against the Hall of Fame coach. It’s actually a good way to go broke.

This article was written by Kevin Berger of March To March.

Follow Kevin on Twitter: @MarchToMarch.