College Basketball Viewing Guide: Big Games for Big Seeds

Coming down the stretch, it’s becoming more apparent which games are going to matter most with respect to top line national seeding.

We’ve already discussed Kentucky and Kansas being virtual locks to get one seeds here , so I’m interested in knowing which games are going to determine the next six seeding lines for our ones and twos.

With that thought in mind, here are six huge games that matter most.

1. Syracuse vs. Villanova, Feb. 28

What’s at stake?
Other than a one seed in the big dance and a conference title, not much. A Nova win and they’re right back in the one seed discussion, and if they win out, they probably get the No. 1 seed along with a regular season conference championship.

What to watch for?
Here’s a pretty detailed description of what you’ll likely see in this contest. I think it will be another fast-paced Big East classic.

2. Purdue vs. Michigan State, Feb. 28

What’s at stake?
Purdue was in the driver’s seat to grab one of the two remaining one seeds—that is, until Robbie Hummel was hurt and Purdue was Kenyon Martin-ed. Still, if the Boilers can get past Michigan State, they likely win out vs. Penn State and Indiana, which likely nets them a No. 1 seed.

What to watch for?
Mainly I’ll be watching to see who will pick up the slack for the Boilermakers. Hummel did so much for their club that it’s going to be tough, but Matt Painter is a coaching superstar in the making, so he’ll think of something. Plus, the way Purdue defends, they’re going to be in every game regardless.

3. Duke at Maryland, March 3

What’s at stake?
With the injury to Hummel, sneaking into the one line just became more of a reality for the Devils if they can win out. A win vs. the resurgent Terps on their home floor is the only thing standing in Duke’s way to a one seed if Purdue slips up and Villanova loses Saturday.

What to watch for?
I’ll be watching the battle between the Blue Devil backcourt of Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler against the Terps' three-guard look of Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes, and Sean Mosley. Vasquez was the only player of the three to play well in the first game between the two clubs, but in this battle I expect Greivis to get some help from his backcourt mates.

4. Kansas vs. Kansas State, March 3

What’s at stake?
Even though it’s a statistical improbability, Kansas State is still not out of the picture for a one seed if everything breaks their way. Duke, Purdue, and Villanova can all lose one or more games, and the Wildcats can sneak in. Not likely, but a win over Kansas on their home floor would almost assure KSU of a two seed, maybe even the top two seed, regardless of what anyone else does.

What to watch for?
As poorly as Sherron Collins has played, and in light of the fact that this game probably isn’t as big for KU as it is for KSU, you almost wouldn’t be surprised if the Wildcats pulled the upset. That is, until Xavier Henry decided to start playing like a McDonald’s All-American. KSU has guard play and some interior punch, but Henry gives KU an X-factor as a talented hybrid wing that KSU can’t match up with.

5. West Virginia vs. Georgetown, March 1

What’s at stake?
For Georgetown, a two seed is at stake. Lose this game, and the Hoyas likely slide down to the three line barring a conference tourney championship.

For WVA, the good news is this game marks the first of two games against top 10 RPI teams. So beating Georgetown and then ‘Nova on their home floor nets the 'Neers at least a two seed and gets them back in the one seed discussion. The bad news: Lose both and they may fall to a three or even a four.

What to watch for?
It’ll be interesting to watch how WVA’s switch-all-screens scheme matches up with a Hoya team that lacks a true back to the basket threat. UConn was able to punish WVA for this tactic, but I don’t think Gtown has the interior horses to exploit the mismatch risk that comes along with switching. I like WVA to win for this reason.

6. West Virginia at Villanova, March 6

What’s at stake?
Whether these teams win or lose in the previous games, this is still a big matchup. If Nova knocks off Syracuse, this game is for a one seed. Lose, and they’re fighting for a two. Ditto for WVA.

What to watch for?
Two questions. First, can the WVA guards stay in front of Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher? They absolutely couldn’t stay in front of Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson.

Second, can WVA’s only true ball handler, Darryl Bryant, hold up under the constant pressure he’s sure to see from the Cats? If yes, the 'Neers should win. If not, the 'Neers will lose to Nova again. I like the Cats to win because I think both answers are no.

We’ve certainly got some exciting matchups to look forward to in the next week and a half.

What games are you looking forward to?

This article was written by Kevin Berger of March To March

Follow Kevin on Twitter: @MarchToMarch