NCAA Bubble Talk: 10 Lingering Questions

I covered the muddled Big East bubble picture earlier this week. Now let's move on to the national picture and try to answer some of college basketball's biggest bubble questions as we move into the month of March.

(All RPI data courtesy of WarrenNolan.com)

1. Is the Atlantic 10 eating itself alive?

Yes it is.

Not long ago, the Atlantic 10 was in position to send a record six teams to the NCAA Tournament. But conference season has taken its toll on the top half of the league this month and the losses have piled up. Now the conference may be looking at as little as three bids.

Temple (RPI: 13) and Xavier (RPI: 14) are locks at this point, and upstart Richmond (RPI: 25) is all but in with five wins vs. the RPI top 50. But once promising bubble teams Rhode Island (RPI: 28) and Charlotte (RPI: 55) each have already suffered a three-game losing streak this month.

Charlotte travels to Rhode Island on Mar. 3 in what could now be an elimination game for both teams. Dayton (RPI: 47) is also currently on a two-game losing streak and is facing a near must-win at Richmond next week.

2. Will the Pac-10 receive an at-large berth?

In a disastrous year for the Pacific 10, the California Golden Bears (RPI: 24) are the league's best hope for an at-large bid. At first glance, Cal looks to be in good position with their RPI in the Top 25, but that number is inflated by their eighth ranked Strength of Schedule. The fact remains that the Bears have not won a game this season over a RPI Top 50 opponent.

The Pac-10 regular season champion will most likely be decided this Saturday when Cal hosts Arizona State (RPI: 56). Arizona State does have an RPI Top 50 win over San Diego State, but little else. While I wouldn't eliminate either team from at-large consideration just yet, both the Bears and Sun Devils probably need to win the Pac-10 regular season and and make the conference tournament final to post a legit case for a bid.

3. Would Northern Iowa receive an at-large if they fail to win their conference tournament? Would Siena? How about Utah State?

The first two are easy. Northern Iowa (RPI: 23) is in the field barring an epic collapse. Losing at 256-ranked Evansville this week was the last thing the Panthers needed, but their 9-1 record against the RPI Top 100—with wins over Old Dominion and Siena—should provide some comfort to the Northern Iowa faithful even if they don't win the Missouri Valley Tournament.

Speaking of Siena (RPI: 38), the Saints would just about need a miracle to make the NCAA Tournament if they fail to win the MAAC Tournament on their home court. Siena is winless against the RPI Top 50, and their most impressive victory came against 76th-ranked Northeastern in mid-November.

On the other hand, Utah State (RPI: 35) will present a very interesting at-large case if they lose the WAC Tournament. The Aggies have a very impressive win over 19th-ranked BYU and eight total wins over the Top 100, but also lost on the road to both 129th-ranked Long Beach State and 144th-ranked Utah early in the season.

Utah State has won 12 in a row, and could stretch that to 17 if they win out to the conference final. A loss then would probably put Utah State either in the last four teams in, or the first four teams out depending on how the rest of the bubble picture unfolds.

4. Which under-the-radar bubble team has the best shot at an at-large?

I still like Seton Hall (RPI: 52). The Pirates have three RPI Top 50 wins (Louisville, Pittsburgh, at Cornell) and their worst loss was at 66th-ranked South Florida. If the Hall wins out against Marquette, at Rutgers, and at Providence, they will have 10 Big East wins and a Top 50 RPI.

It could all come down to needing a win in their first game in the Big East Tournament, but don't be surprised if Seton Hall makes its way into the field with a few more wins.

5. Does Saint Mary's have enough on their resume to make the field?

The more things change in this world, the more they stay the same. Last year at this time, Saint Mary's was one of the nation's quintessential bubble teams, but was forced to deal with an injury to guard Patty Mills. Despite the return of Mills, the Gaels were blown out by Gonzaga in the WCC Finals.

After that loss and uncertain of its at-large chances, Saint Mary's scheduled an extra game against Eastern Washington to showcase a healthy Mills in an attempt to pass the "eye test." It didn't work—Saint Mary's won—but missed the NCAA Tournament.

Fast forward to this season. Mills is gone, but Saint Mary's (RPI: 47) is once again one of the nation's quintessential bubble teams. The Gaels are 2-3 vs the RPI Top 50, with wins against San Diego State and at Utah State, and have no losses outside the RPI Top 100.

Curiously, Saint Mary's passed on a chance to participate in the BracketBusters this season, a decision that might have cost the Gaels a marquee win to bolster their resume. Should Saint Mary's fail to win the WCC Tournament, they could be looking to add another game to their schedule to try and impress the selection committee.

I think Saint Mary's is in a better position this time, but if they lose a game before the WCC Finals or get blown out by Gonzaga again, this Gaels squad probably would share the same fate as last year's team.

6. Does the Mountain West get four bids?

The Mountain West conference has been much maligned in recent years for their poor NCAA Tournament performance. The conference is also hurt by a lack of national television exposure, which in the past has practically hidden the regular season accomplishments of the league's top teams.

While the level of exposure may be no different than in the past, this year's Mountain West has four capable teams looking to showcase themselves on the grand stage of the NCAA Tournament. Both BYU (RPI: 19) and New Mexico (RPI: 10) are locks to dance.

UNLV (RPI: 44) is 4-4 vs. the RPI Top 50 and should be in the field if they take care of business at Air Force and at home against Wyoming to close out the season and avoid an upset in the MWC Tournament.

San Diego State (RPI: 37) is in a more precarious situation. The Aztecs don't have the non-conference heft on their resume like their conference counterparts, and are only 2-5 vs. the RPI Top 50. San Diego State will need to win their last two against Colorado State and at Air Force, and probably reach the MWC Finals to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.

7. Will the SEC only end up with four bids?

Probably.

You can go ahead and lock in Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Florida (RPI: 46) is next in line and in fairly good shape with three Top 50 wins and still a couple more chances to boost their resume by hosting Vanderbilt and traveling to Kentucky.

On the other side of the bubble, Mississippi State (RPI: 58) received a lot of national attention for their near miss in OT against Kentucky, which may have cost the Bulldogs a bid. The Bulldogs only have one Top 50 win and a bubble-bursting four losses outside the Top 100. Mississippi State now faces must-wins at South Carolina, at Auburn, and home against Tennessee before the SEC Tournament.

Mississippi (RPI: 63) also may have cost themselves a bid with a series of near misses at home against Vanderbilt and Florida in the same week. Ole Miss has fallen on hard times this past month, losing 5 of their last 7, and are left hanging their hat on a neutral site win over Kansas State back in November. Similar to their in-state rival, the Rebels will certainly need to win out in the regular season at Alabama, vs. LSU, and at Arkansas and follow that up with an upset in the SEC Tournament to have a shot to go dancing.

8. Which "In" team could play its way "Out" come Selection Sunday?

While most prognosticators do not have Illinois (RPI: 62) pegged as a lock to make the tournament, they are perhaps in a bit more trouble than most people realize. The Fighting Illini do have an impressive four Top 50 wins, but also have three losses outside the Top 100. The remaining schedule is not easy (vs. Minnesota, at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin).

Let's say Illinois loses both at Ohio State and home against Wisconsin. That would give them a 19-12 (11-7 Big Ten) record and almost certainly the fifth seed in the conference tournament. If Illinois loses their opening game to the fourth seed, would that still be enough to get? I don't know for certain that it is.

9. Which BCS-conference bubble team could win its conference tournament?

I think the Pac-10 Tournament is going to be wide open this year, but I'm going to ignore those teams because there is a strong chance it is a one-bid league this year. The SEC Tournament over the past few years has been completely unpredictable and wide open, with Georgia and Mississippi State winning the last two years.

But instead I'm going to turn to the ACC and pick Georgia Tech (RPI: 34) to make a run at securing a bid the old-fashioned way.

In many ways, this has not been a banner year for the ACC. With the exception of Duke, the rest of the tournament-caliber teams in the league have not shown much consistency. There has been no bigger poster-boy for ACC inconsistency this season than Georgia Tech. At times, they have looked like a team capable of a Sweet 16 run.

At others, they have not looked NCAA Tournament-worthy. Why do I think they can make a run to win their conference tournament then? Because they have the talent and the ability to beat anyone in the ACC, including Duke, when they get rolling.

10. Will mid-major schools receive more than four bids this year?

Easily.

For the purposes of this article, I am defining "mid-major" as any non-BCS conference team. Last year was a very poor year for mid-major at-large choices with only four. But as I talked about already above, the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West have had outstanding seasons and will both have at least one at-large, and probably two.

The West Coast Conference and Conference USA are also improved and each have a chance to get an at-large bid this year. Also, Butler, probably Northern Iowa, and perhaps Utah State would qualify as an at-large should they not win their conference tournament. The real challenge will be to reach six and match the number of at-large bids received in 2008.