Dispelling the Fantasy Baseball “Negatives” of Justin Morneau

Eric StashinFeb 24, 2010

I have to wonder why Justin Morneau is often considered the “other” top first baseman. After all the top names have come off the board and you find yourself empty handed, you can either “settle” for Morneau or wait a few rounds and take Kendry Morales, Lance Berkman, or Carlos Pena.

Why is Morneau thought of as nothing more than the ninth best first baseman according to ADP? Is it:

His .280 career average?
His 30+ HR in three of the last four seasons?
His 100+ RBI for four years running, including years of 129 (2008) and 130 (2006)?

TOP NEWS

Bleacher Report1w

Bleacher Report1w

With Jayson Tatum sidelined, Celtics' fourth-quarter comeback falls short in Game 7 loss to 76ers

Bleacher Report1w

Exactly what is it that has Morneau behind Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis? I have him ranked as the sixth first baseman on my most recent rankings (click here to view), and here’s why.

First, let’s look at his numbers from last season:

508 At-Bats
.274 Batting Average (139 Hits)
30 Home Runs
100 RBI
85 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.363 On Base Percentage
.516 Slugging Percentage
.273 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average, which is clearly usable, was hampered by some poor luck. Of people who qualified for the batting title, the .273 was tied for the 13th worst in the league (out of 154). Do we really expect him to replicate that type of bad luck again?

Also, his strikeouts were the worst they have been since his first full season in 2005:

2006 - 15.7%
2007 - 15.4%
2008 - 12.6%
2009 - 16.9%

Better luck plus less strikeouts (my projection has him at 15.5 percent) means a significantly better average for 2010. You mix that with the rest of his numbers and what exactly is there not to like?

I know, the new ballpark makes you worry, at least a little bit, about his power for the upcoming season. It’s a fair concern, because until they start playing there we really aren’t going to have an idea as to how it will affect hitters (did anyone foresee the new Yankees Stadium playing as it did). However, it’s not like he’s been a huge home run hitter at home over the past few seasons:

2006: 17 HR at home/17 HR on the road
2007: 15 HR at home/16 HR on the road
2008: 12 HR at home/11 HR on the road
2009: 14 HR at home/16 HR on the road

The moral of the story is Morneau is not a player whose power has come because he played in a hitter’s park. Even if the new ballpark favors pitchers, how many home runs do we really expect it to steal? Worst-case scenario is he hits 27 HR? I don’t think that’s anything to complain about (and also not what I’d expect).

He’s proven to be an RBI machine and with Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and J.J. Hardy taking up spots behind him in the lineup, he should be in for a solid year of scoring runs as well.

Seriously, what’s not to like?

Let’s take a look at my 2010 projection for him:

.297 (178-600), 33 HR, 110 RBI, 90 R, 0 SB, .306 BABIP, .397 OBP, .523 SLG

Let others in your league bypass on Morneau if they desire. Let them consider him a second-class citizen, because the fact is that he has proven to be among the top producing 1B in the league the last few seasons. Don’t be upset if you have to “settle” for him, because you will be greatly rewarded.

What are your thoughts on Morneau? Where do you rank him among 1B? What are you expecting from him in 2010?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5), click here .

Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including: