If Z Can't Return To Cleveland, Was Jamison Trade Smart For Cavaliers?

When the Cleveland Cavaliers traded Zydrunas Ilgauskas to the Washington Wizards for two-time All-Star Antawn Jamison, everyone in the NBA had the impression that the Wizards would negotiate a buy-out with Ilgauskas for salary relief, allowing Big Z to return to Cleveland for a potential run at an NBA championship.

Unfortunately for the big man, while Z's "heart is in Cleveland" (according to his agent), his $11.5 million expiring contract still belongs to the Wizards.  

And the Wizards, who just shipped out their two best, non-suspended players for cap relief in the past week and a half, made one more savvy move just before the trade deadline: They shipped Dominic McGuire to the Sacramento Kings for a 2010 second-round draft pick, which brought them comfortably under the luxury tax line for this season.

Suddenly, Z's best bargaining chip—the "waive me or you're costing yourself millions in luxury tax dollars" argument—had been neutralized.  

The ball is firmly in Washington's court now, and if they don't waive Big Z by March 1, he won't be allowed to rejoin a team for their playoff run.

I'm just playing devil's advocate here...but what incentive do the Wizards have to release Z before then, now that they're under the luxury tax?

The Wiz have zero chance of making it to the playoffs themselves this year, but that doesn't mean they should bend over and help a recent playoff rival.  Seeing as Cleveland habitually knocked their team out of the playoffs back in the glory days of the Arenas-Jamison-Butler "Big Three," why would the Wizards turn around and help them by releasing Z in time?

Maybe this had been part of their diabolical plan all along: they'd look like they were shedding Jamison for cap space, but as an added bonus, they'd hinder the Cavs' chances at an NBA championship.  (And their chances to retain LeBron after this summer, perhaps?)

Again, this is all conjecture.  According to Z's agent, Herb Rudoy, he's been actively negotiating a buyout with the Wizards, and he could reach an agreement within the next couple of days.

But Mark Heisler of the Los Angeles Times  reported over the weekend that the NBA may step in and not allow Ilgauskas to return to the Cavs, on the basis that there was a pre-arranged deal to allow Z's return.

Oh.  Well then...that changes everything.

As Heisler Tweeted , the NBA has only prevented one trade-buyout-return previously (Jerry Stackhouse), but Z may be on his way to becoming the second.

If the Wizards don't end up waiving Z before March 1 after all, or if the NBA front office won't allow Ilgauskas to return to the Cavs...how does that Jamison trade look now?

In the past week, it felt like everyone and their mother lauded the trade for the Cavs, with everyone operating under the assumption that Z would be allowed to return. ESPN's John Hollinger  and Chad Ford both loved  the deal for the Cavs in their trade grades (with Hollinger going so far as to say, "I love this deal for the Cavs. Loveitloveitloveitloveitloveit. They hit a home run here.")...but both hinted at the overwhelming likelihood of Z returning to the Cavs as well.

With the info from the L.A. Times , it sounds like it may be time to consider the Jamison trade outside of the "Z's definitely returning to Cleveland" vacuum.

If Z doesn't return, was the Jamison trade a wise move for the Cavs?  And are they still NBA championship favorites, as Chad Ford labeled them after the Jamison trade?

Right now, it's easy to pile on the Cavs.  They entered the All-Star break on a 13-game winning streak, but since trading Z, they've managed to lose all three of their games.  

Granted, Jamison didn't play in the first game (an overtime loss to Denver, where LeBron had the most transcendent single-game performance since 1974), and he had his worst-ever shooting game against the Bobcats a day later.  But Jamison also performed reasonably well against the Magic yesterday, LeBron dropped his usual absurd stat line (33/9/6), and they still lost.

I know you can chalk these losses up to Jamison acclimating himself in the Cavs' system, and the Cavs had opened up such a mountainous lead in the Eastern Conference that they're still nearly five games ahead of the closest team...but at what point does a losing streak become a legitimate cause for concern?

While Z was mostly known in Cleveland for his longevity (he's the Cavs' career-leader in games played, as of this year), he also provided the Cavs a 1-2 punch at center alongside Shaq that gave them a huge advantage over any team in the East not named Orlando.

Without Z, they're asking Shaq to take on a much larger responsibility on the team, as he becomes the starting center with no seven footer backup.  

If Shaq got a little too rough and picked up a few cheap fouls before the Jamison trade, the Cavs wouldn't have to sweat it—they could send in Z and they'd still be able to run most of their same offensive/defensive looks (without as many post ups by the big man).

And there's no way to understate Z's impact on defense.  While the 34-year-old's feet may not be quick enough to keep up with the Magic's Dwight Howard on pick-and-rolls, his size does cause teams to alter their shot selection, and he's always good for some clutch rebounds and a block.

Without Z, the Cavs have Anderson Varejao and J.J. Hickson as their big men in waiting, and no one's going to mistake Varejao for Ilgauskas any time soon.

I'm not saying that Cleveland has no shot at winning an NBA championship without Z, but the road would admittedly become much tougher with Shaq as the only true center on the roster.

Shaq was able to neutralize D-Howard and the Lakers with Z backing him up...but without Z in his corner, Howard went off for 22 points and 16 boards against the Cavs on Sunday.

If, for whatever reason, Ilgauskas is not allowed to return to the Cavs, Cleveland fans ironically may end up lamenting  the trade for Jamison that, on the surface, looked completely in their favor.

Who would have expected the Wizards potentially getting the better end of this deal at the time the trade was made?