Bubble Talk: Big East Edition

The end of February is an exciting time for college basketball enthusiasts.

March is coming, and along with it comes conference tournaments, Selection Sunday, and of course, the Big Dance. We're still a few weeks away from all that, but we have already entered the always-exciting Bubble season, where hopes and dreams are raised and dashed every day.

The Big East has widely been regarded as the best conference in basketball over the last few seasons. This season has given no reason to change that viewpoint with an astounding 13 of the league's 16 teams still in contention for a berth in next month's NCAA Tournament. Nearly every league game from here on out has ramifications towards seeding in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments.

The top five teams in the conference—Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, and Pittsburgh—have secured themselves a bid into the NCAA field.

However, 8 more teams—Louisville, Marquette, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Florida, Notre Dame, and St. John's—all could find themselves in the field of 65 or left on the outside come Selection Sunday.

Let's start with Louisville [18-9 (9-5), 30 RPI, 7 SOS]. Of all the bubble teams in the Big East, Louisville has best positioned themselves over the past few weeks.

Prior to their huge win at Syracuse, the Cardinals were in a precarious situation by getting blown out at St. John's and losing an early season contest to Western Carolina at home.

Louisville followed up on their win at Syracuse with a double OT win over Notre Dame and then took care of business at DePaul. Louisville still only has two wins over the RPI Top 50, but has solid computer numbers and can hang their hat on home wins over fellow bubble teams—UConn, South Florida, Cincinnati & Notre Dame.

The remaining schedule is daunting, with Georgetown coming to town this Tuesday, then a couple of road games at UConn and at Marquette, before finishing at home against Syracuse. Two more wins would give the Cardinals 11 Big East wins on the season and should put them into the field.

Marquette [17-9(8-6), 59 RPI, 50 SOS] got a marquee win they sorely needed on Sunday afternoon in overtime at Cincinnati. The sub-par overall numbers and a loss at home to NC State and at DePaul give reason to doubt their profile, but they have won six of seven and have a couple nice wins over Georgetown, at UConn, and at a neutral site over Xavier.

Marquette travels to upset-minded St. John's on Wednesday and then finishes with three more contests against fellow bubble teams; at Seton Hall, and home games against Louisville and Notre Dame. A home loss down the stretch would be devastating, as would anything less than taking three out of four.

Connecticut [16-11(6-8), 45 RPI, 2 SOS] has taken a similar path as last year's Georgetown team. Solid computer numbers and a couple of great wins kept that Hoyas team in the mix for a while, but eventually the losses kept mounting and left them out of the Tournament.

Having already lost their 11th game of the season, UConn looked to avoid that same fate and responded with their best win of the year, at Villanova last week. Almost as important, they avoided a slip up at Rutgers. The strong computer numbers have kept UConn in it, but now is the time to pick up wins.

The Huskies are left with a home game tonight against West Virginia, a home date against Louisville, and two road contests to finish the season at Notre Dame and at South Florida. Taking at least one of the two road games along with holding serve at home will do wonders for UConn's chances.

Cincinnati [15-11(6-8), 56 RPI, 16 SOS] dealt themselves a serious blow by losing at home to Marquette on Sunday. The Bearcats do have four Top 50 wins, including a sweep of Connecticut, and no losses outside the Top 100, but have struggled lately in winning only four of their last 10 games.

Cincinnati hosts DePaul this week before traveling to West Virginia on Saturday. Cincy finishes with a home game against Villanova and on the road at Georgetown. Winning three out of four is all but necessary to get the Bearcats into the field.

I like Seton Hall's profile [15-10(6-8), 52 RPI, 11 SOS] more than most seem to. Yes, the Pirates only have three top 50 wins (vs. Pitt, vs. Louisville, at Cornell) but their worst loss of the season was at South Florida.

All four remaining games on the schedule are winnable, with two games against Rutgers sandwiched by a home game vs. Marquette before finishing at Providence. A loss would just about do the Hall in, but if they win out, they will be looking at 10 Big East wins and a top 50 RPI headed to the Big East Tournament.

South Florida [16-10(6-8), 68 RPI, 43 SOS] is in deep trouble after losing by 16 at home to St. John's. The Bulls have two great wins over Pittsburgh and at Georgetown, but have some of the worst losses by a bubble team, including a home loss to No. 202 Central Michigan in December.

USF has to travel to Villanova this week before hosting Providence, going to DePaul, and finishing at home versus Connecticut. Three wins will get South Florida to .500 in Big East play, but that still probably won't be enough.

I would not count Notre Dame [17-10(6-8), 80 RPI, 60 SOS] or St. John's [15-11(5-9), 71 RPI, 22 SOS] completely out of it just yet, but both would need to win out to warrant any consideration for an at-large bid. The Irish were severely damaged by the injury to Luke Harangody and a couple of heartbreaking defeats, and St. John's does not have the overall profile at the moment to pass their conference foes on the bubble.

Will the Big East only get six teams into the NCAA Tournament? Will they exceed last year's total of seven? That's the beauty of college basketball this time of year—anything can happen, we just have to wait and see.