The Official New York Knicks Rest of the Season Forecast

The Knicks’ loss to the Thunder on Saturday night was pretty bad. They blew a six point lead with just over a minute left in regulation; and despite contributing much more than anyone on the planet thought he would, Tracy McGrady could have put the game away with his two missed free throws down the stretch. With that said however, Saturday night was the most excited I’ve been to watch a Knicks game in years, and the way the Knicks played (particularly the three new ones) certainly merited my excitement.

But early in the fourth quarter, as T-Mac continued to score astonishingly at will, Walt Fraizer said something very interesting: “If T-Mac went 0-19 from the field tonight, I’d tell you it’s his first game and it’s not an indication of what he’ll do for the rest of the year.”

One game is not an indication of whether or not T-Mac is going to be an MVP candidate again. But there are absolutely things that we can take from the new look Knicks’ first game, and apply for the rest of the year.

In fact, there are four.

Tracy McGrady will make a very compelling case to be resigned

I highly doubt Tracy McGrady will average 25 a game for the rest of the season. But in his first few days with the team, T-Mac has made it pretty clear that he is playing for two things: his livelihood and a championship. And even though 25 points is pretty outstanding for a guy who hadn’t played 30 minutes of NBA basketball in two years; I was far more impressed by his passing.

If it weren’t for Wilson Chandler and Al Harrington each blowing two layups, and Eddie House missing an open jumper late, T-Mac would have had a double-double, and the Knicks would have won. Plus, there were multiple points in the game where I actually found myself asking one of the biggest chuck artists of the last 30 years to stop passing and shoot more. And that leads me to the big point here.

If T-Mac continues to be that comfortable passing the ball, and that content with shooting less, he is the ideal shooting guard to have in this package next season. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Knicks are going to bring in two guys who are going to want to take 20 shots a piece each game.

So if McGrady can continue pass well, his reliable touch as a third scoring option would make him incredibly valuable. Let’s also not forget that he has already publicly stated that he would take a massive pay cut if it meant winning a rock.

The Knicks are going to end the season as the second worst defensive team in the NBA (sorry, but nobody can top the Warriors)

The Knicks traded away their best defender in Jared Jeffries. But when I say “best defender” what I really mean is “only member of the team that played defense.” Especially with the addition of T-Mac, the Knicks have three or four of the worst on-ball defenders in the game.

Even worse, in the first game of their “all guards and David Lee” approach, the Knicks were annihilated in the rebound column, particularly on the offensive boards. So when I see a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder dominate the glass against the Knicks, I can’t help but think of the 20 teams with real post players, and what they will do to this undersized squad.

Also, even on nights when the Knicks are playing okay defensively, it is going to be hard for them to keep that rhythm because of their lack of depth. The Knicks have been the comeback kids for the last few seasons, but the series of deadline deals will almost certainly have them dreadfully exhausted in the fourth quarter of every game from here on out. And that actually makes for a pretty good segue…

David Lee is going to try to kill Donnie Walsh by the end of this season

David lee had a monster game on the offensive end Saturday night, and with multiple eyes on T-Mac, his offensive numbers can continue to grow. There is just one problem: David Lee is not a terrific defender, and he is night in and night out playing defense on a bigger player. He is also the only consistent rebounder on the team. Those two tidbits of information were much less important when David Lee had a sub.

But now that Al Harrington (the NBA’s most un-conventional power forward) is the only remaining member of the Knicks listed as a post player, David Lee is never going to sit again, ever, times infinity. David Lee will literally be in the top five in minutes played in the NBA from this point on.

Sergio Rodriguez will be the starting point guard for this team in less than two weeks

There may not be a 23 year old basketball player with a worse string of luck than Sergio Rodriguez. Rodriguez was drafted to the Blazers, who at the time were experimenting with having Roy at the point, and then had a shot at signing Andre Miller. So he became expendable. Then he was sent to Sacramento, who happened to stumble upon Tyreke Evans, the point guard who is bound to win Rookie of the Year honors this season. So he became expendable again.

The situation is much different now. Rodriguez is not making much money (by NBA standards at least), he’s not in a half-court offense; and most importantly, he’s not backing up a megastar. Chris Duhon has struggled as of late, and D’Antoni’s attitude towards the situation couldn’t be more evident, as Rodriguez played more minutes than Duhon in his first game in a Knicks uniform. Rodriguez has never been given a fair shake; but you can’t help but think that there is a place for the high octane Spaniard in Mike D’Antoni’s system.