Big Dancing: Sorting Out the March Madness No. 1 Seeds

A quick check of the calendar tells you this post is way too early.  But today’s slate of basketball games leaves a lot to be desired.  Call it the quiet before the storm of mega-showdowns we’ll get next week.

From where I sit, I think there are six teams vying for four national No. 1 seeds.  Of those six, there are three teams that are a cut above squads four through six, and I’ll explain why.  Again, it’s still only February and a lot can change, but where’s the fun in letting things play out when wild speculation is just a mouse click away.

The Teams

With apologies to Michigan State, Kansas State, Georgetown, and West Virginia, there are really only six teams with legitimate shots at a No. 1 seed, and as far as the eyeball test goes, these are truly the best six teams in America.

Syracuse

If they beat Villanova Saturday, pencil them in for a No. 1 seed barring two unforeseen losses and a one-and-done in the Big East tournament.

Strengths: Style and personnel.  Style in that attacking their zone defense is like a color blind dude trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube.  Teams may face a true zone team once or twice all year, and no zone team out there is as good, active, and athletic as the ‘Cuse zone.

They do a great job of taking away open threes and their size makes it really tough to attack the rim, leaving teams with uncomfortable midrange shots for offense.  If you take bad shots or turn it over against the Orange, they get into transition in the blink of an eye for easy buckets.

As for personnel, they have strength at all three levels.  Andy Rautins gives them an elite shooting guard who is open as soon as he crosses half court.  At wing, they have one of the two or three most talented players in America in Wes Johnson.  He can do it all: shoot it, handle it, block shots, you name it.  In the paint, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson give them two big imposing forces on the backline of the zone.  Offensively, these bigs can carve out space and are athletic finishers giving Syracuse a deadly post game.

Weaknesses: Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine are solid ball-handlers, but the 'Cuse lacks that elite creator that can get shots for teammates in a bogged down, halfcourt to halfcourt game.  If the Orange face a team with good athletes that can play disciplined and control tempo, they’ll be in for a dog fight.  Think Kansas.

Kansas

Speaking of the Jayhawks, they’re probably the most disciplined team in American on both ends and a shoe-in for a No. 1 seed.

Strengths: No team in America has a better combination of talent, discipline, and experience. The Jayhawks can win games on both ends of the floor and they can win playing virtually any tempo and style.

Weaknesses: The inside-out punch of Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich is always there, but a third scoring/playmaking option still hasn’t emerged for the Jayhawks, which means if you can take away Collins you really limit Aldrich and the Morris twins by default.

Tyshawn Taylor and Xavier Henry were supposed to be that third explosive threat, but neither has really emerged.  Sure, Kansas has won games without Collins playing well, but it doesn’t change the fact that they’re vulnerable when Collins is taken away or has a rough ball game.

Kentucky

Outside of Mississippi State and South Carolina no team is giving them a fight in the SEC, so ink the Wildcats in on the No. 1 line.  Hell, write it in the blood of one of DeMarcus Cousins’ shanked victims.

Strengths: One through five, there isn’t a more talented club in America.  They’ve got three NBA first-rounders starting for them, and the other two starters will get paid to play basketball.  Or at least paid more.

Unlike Kansas, Kentucky can lean on Eric Bledsoe to create and score when Wall is off or in foul trouble, which means you can’t take away Cousins and Patrick Patterson by smothering UK’s main cog.  You can’t zone Kentucky either, because they deploy four deep shooters including Patterson, and they’re so big and athletic that it’s virtually impossible to rebound effectively out a zone against UK.  Ask Mississippi State.

Weaknesses: Point blank, it’s experience.  UK is vulnerable to just playing stupid at times because of it.  Their one loss on the year was directly attributed to John Wall and Bledsoe’s refusal to pound Cousins and Patterson inside.  A more experienced backcourt would have seen to it that South Carolina’s entire frontcourt fouled out before a perimeter jumpshot was hoisted.

Villanova

Beat Syracuse and a No. 1 seed is almost a certainty.  The game against the ‘Cuse will be the most intriguing matchup all year, since the game will be strength against strength in the form of tremendous Villanova guard play against the Syracuse zone.

Strengths: Speaking of guard play, the Cats main strength is well, guard play. There isn’t a deeper or more talented backcourt in America. Corey Stokes, Scottie Reynolds, and Corey Fisher can all handle, pass, and shoot.  Hmmm, what does it take to defeat a good zone, again? The Cats are also one of the deepest teams in American with 11 players averaging double-digit minutes.

Weaknesses: Size.  Antonio Pena might as well be named Gulliver on the Big East Island surrounded by Lilliputians.  Except Gulliver doesn’t run the floor. The only true centers on the roster Yarou and Sutton aren’t very productive but will need to play well if ‘Nova is to matchup size-wise in certain games.

Duke

The Blue Devils should when the ACC and have a shot at a No. 1 seed if they can run the table and one of the Big East big dogs falters just a bit.

Strengths: There’s not a squad in America that plays better as a team.  The Devils will put five guys on the floor that will run motion, screen, pass, and are willing to play unselfishly in order to maximize offensive possessions.  Duke leads the nation in pace adjusted offensive efficiency because of it.  They’re also the most experienced team in the nation.

Weaknesses. They lack that true blow-by playmaker (though they can often bedevil you without a true point) that can create something out of nothing.  The Devils are so reliant on their motion game on offense, that they’ll be vulnerable if they play an athletic, defensive-minded team that can take away the off the ball screen game.  Or a team that zones well.  Syracuse, for example, would be a horrible matchup for Duke.

Purdue

They need some help, but they’re still alive for a No. 1 seed if they can knock off Michigan State at home next week and run the the regular season table overall.

Strengths: They defend like their lives depend on getting stops.  Think Mayans versus Incas.  Or is it Aztecs?  Matt Painter is one of the great young coaches in college basketball and his teams always straight up guard you.  On offense, the Boilers are a balanced bunch, led by three headed scoring monsters E'Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, and JaJuan Johnson, all of whom are averaging over 15 points per contest.  It’s tough to defend teams with that kind of offensive balance.

Weaknesses: When the Boilers suffered their three-game losing streak in the middle of January, their main problem was atrocious perimeter shooting.  Outside of Robbie Hummel, the Boilers really don’t have elite perimeter shooters and even Hummel has struggled finding his stroke this season.  If the Boilers face a solid defensive group that can stay in front of Purdue ball-handlers and defend the Boilermaker cutters, Purdue will struggle.  Kansas would be a tough defensive matchup in that respect.

So here are your potential ones. Mark me down for Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse, and Villanova. Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, and Kansas State are your twos.

Who you got?

This article was written by Kevin Berger of March To March

Follow Kevin on Twitter: @MarchToMarch