NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction and The Stealth Bubble Team

It’s Bracket Buster Weekend, the weekend where schools from non-BCS conferences get a shot to showcase themselves against other top tier non-BCS schools. Winners of these games usually are teams that end up dancing in March.

Teams that desperately need a strong win to prove they belong in the tournament including; Cornell, Charlotte, UTEP, St Mary’s and San Diego State. Oh wait, none of those are in the Bracket Busters.

Instead we get a group of match-ups where one team desperately needing a big win faces a similar sized school also needing a big win.

The original intent was to provide a George Mason scenario from 2006, where a win over Wichita State helped catapult them to an at-large bid and eventually the Final Four. Instead, the game has become an elimination game, another reason why the committee should not take a team from a smaller conference and take the 8^th best Big East team.

Butler and Northern Iowa are most likely getting at an-large bid, and they have home games this weekend. The bubble is pretty soft this year, so Old Dominion would most likely get in anyway and Siena has at lease a case if they win out until the MAAC final.

Now if Old Dominion and Siena lose this weekend, their at-large bids take a major hit while Butler and Northern Iowa gain little. The risk has become greater than the reward for these teams, and in the last few years the committee has taken less and less teams from non-BCS conferences.

Bubble talk in general is annoying, since the talk always becomes skewed towards BCS teams simply because more people have seen them play.

William and Mary has a strong RPI, but who has seen them play this year? Florida has to be better; they’ve been on television about a dozen times this year. Big wins and RPI are obsessions while achievement is minimized.

My favorite example is how Washington is still listed as a possible at-large team, even though they have 1 road win and have been mediocre in a terrible conference. They have an RPI of 52—they must be good is the crazy rationale. Meanwhile, a team that could finish the season 30-4 is not even mentioned as an at-large candidate.

I know Murray State’s schedule has been terrible, and the only buzz the Racers have received this year was from a few days ago when the guy made the half court shot from his knees. They have a really good shot to go undefeated in the regular season in their conference and of course have a bracket buster game that can only harm them against Morgan State.

The NCAA has never held a team out of the tournament that had 30 wins, and the biggest thing against Murray State would be an RPI of 79 and no big wins. They did play California really well at Berkeley, something Washington didn’t do.

I have a theory about this if Murray State does go 30-4 and doesn’t get an automatic bid. Murray State will not get an at-large bid, and they will be the example used to push expansion of the tournament. Even though expansion would help BCS conferences the most, Murray State will be the poster child of increasing the field.

The solution is simple if this scenario plays out and the committee isn’t sure if Murray State is worthy enough. Give them an at-large bid, in the play-in game. That way only one conference champion plays in that terrible game and Murray State would have to prove their worth with a win. Plus it would set up one fascinating 1 vs 16 team.

Mock Bracket for Friday February 19^th

(This was is a little different because I added a scenario. In this case, I had St Mary’s and Wichita State winning their conference tournaments, taking away 2 at-large bids. The scenario was much easier than sorting through the mediocrity to find 2 more teams)

South Region (Houston)

Oklahoma City (Thursday)

1          Kansas

16        North Texas

8          Rhode Island

9          UTEP

Jacksonville (Friday)

4          Vanderbilt

13        Northeastern

5          Georgetown

12        Florida St

New Orleans (Thursday)

6          Texas

11        Dayton

3          Michigan St

14        Oakland

Buffalo (Friday)

7          Virginia Tech

10        Siena

2          West Virginia

15        Morgan St

Georgetown is losing a lot of ground in the bracket and are an interesting case study. They appear to play to their competition, which is never a good sign in the tournament when you are a #4 or #5 seed. Add that I now have them playing a road game in the 1^st round and Georgetown’s run may be short.

Midwest Region (St Louis)

Milwaukee (Friday)

1          Kentucky

16        Jackson St/Campbell

8          Maryland

9          California

Spokane (Friday)

4          Wisconsin

13        Murray St

5          Temple

12        San Diego St

Providence (Thursday)

6          Butler

11        Cornell

3          Pittsburgh

14        Akron

Oklahoma City (Thursday)

7          Northern Iowa

10        Illinois

2          Kansas St

15        UC Santa Barbara

Ideally Northern Iowa vs Illinois would take place in Milwaukee, so hopefully the bracket will work out to make that possible next week. Kentucky would very much enjoy this draw.

East Region (Syracuse)

Milwaukee (Friday)

1          Purdue

16        Lehigh

8          Louisville

9          Missouri

Spokane (Friday)

4          Tennessee

13        Sam Houston St

5          Wake Forest

12        Utah St

San Jose (Thursday)

6          Baylor

11        St Mary’s

3          New Mexico

14        Charleston

Providence (Thursday)

7          Xavier

10        Clemson

2          Villanova

15        Stony Brook

I jumped Purdue over Villanova because right now they are playing better and come tournament time the Big 10 champion will probably trump the Big East runner-up if they are close. I will now donate to my alumni association and ask for forgiveness.

West Region (Salt Lake City)

Buffalo (Friday)

1          Syracuse

16        Robert Morris

8          Georgia Tech

9          Old Dominion

New Orleans (Thursday)

4          Texas A&M

13        Wichita St

5          Ohio St

12        UAB

San Jose (Thursday)

6          Gonzaga

11        Oklahoma St

3          BYU

14        Weber St

Jacksonville (Friday)

7          Richmond

10        Marquette

2          Duke

15        Coastal Carolina

This is the region where the most change can take place in the next few weeks, where BYU, Gonzaga, Texas A&M and Ohio can interchange from their seeds pretty quickly. Gonzaga losing multiple bad games recently is why they moved to a #6 seed.