Georgetown Hoyas: Still Contenders After Loss To Rutgers?

Hopefully this past Valentine's Day you found yourself busy with much better things to do than watch Georgetown presumably beat up on a Rutgers team they beat by 25 points earlier this season.

If you're like me, you would have casually glanced at the score of the game with 10 seconds left...only to see that Georgetown was somehow losing.  

If you had the stomach to keep watching it, you'd have seen Rutgers finish the deed in knocking off the eighth-ranked Hoyas.

Disregard the fact that Georgetown hadn't lost to Rutgers since the 2002-03 season, when Craig Esherick was still the head coach.

Forget that last year's Georgetown squad that finished 16-15 (7-11 in conference) even managed to scrap together a win against Rutgers.

Instead, focus on the fact that eight days ago these very same Hoyas humbled Villanova, then the No. 2 team in the country.  A week before, they also welcomed Duke to their home court, and opened up a 20-point lead on the top-10 ranked Blue Devils in the second half.

So how did this Hoya squad succumb to such a crappy team when they've beaten the likes of Villanova and Duke at home, in addition to Pittsburgh on the road?   

Are the Hoyas, who had been considered a legitimate national championship contender after their thrashing of 'Nova, still worthy of being in that conversation after showing their inconsistencies in recent weeks?

A quick glance at Kenpom.com shows some telling statistics about the Hoyas and may suggest the ceiling for this year's squad.

Here are the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency statistics (a combination of effective field goal, turnover, offensive rebound, and team free throw percentages) from Pomeroy:

Year, Off. Eff./Rank

2005-06, 117.1/9
2006-07, 124.8/2
2007-08, 117.2/18
2008-09, 111.2/45
2009-10, 115.0/21       

Year, Def. Eff./Rank

2005-06, 92.9/38
2006-07, 89.3/20
2007-08, 86.4/4
2008-09, 91.1/22
2009-10, 91.4/36

I'm shocked to see their offensive efficiency as poor as it is, considering I've been affectionately referring to them as the most offensively gifted team John Thompson III has coached at Georgetown.

Apparently not.

Unquestionably, this team has the ability to pile on points and explode on scoring runs like no other Thompson-coached G'town team. Go back to the 103 points they scored against 'Nova, Duke (89), or even Providence (79).  

It's no secret that Thompson's Georgetown teams rely on the Princeton offense to generate high-percentage shots.  (Nationally, they rank fifth in two-point FGs and 13th in three-pointers this season.)  To create those high-percentage shots, the Hoyas milk the shot clock on every possession, leaving G'town towards the basement of possessions per game since Thompson's taken over.

This year's Georgetown team also has the ability to run up and down the court unlike any other Thompson-led squad, explaining the apparent scoring acumen.  Compared to the 2007 Final Four team, these Hoyas are averaging nearly seven more possessions a game.

What's holding this year's team back?

The scoring increase correlates with the increase in possessions, but it's adversely affected the Hoyas as much as it's helped them.

Check out statsheet.com to see that the Hoyas average 14.7 turnovers per game this season. That number doesn't sound bad on the surface, but when you only average about 67 possessions, that means they're giving the ball away 21.8 percent of the time on offense.

That 21.8 percent is an awful sounding number.

Moreover, if you're looking to find the cause of these turnovers, look no further than the frontcourt. Thanks to the fantastic job done compiling stats by HoyaProspectus, you can see that in Georgetown's 18 wins this season, Greg Monroe, Julian Vaughn, and Jerrelle Benimon have posted turnover rates of 19.3, 19.9, and 35.8 percent, respectively. In their losses: Monroe (27.5), Vaughn (30.5), and Benimon (53.3).

In other words, the formula to beat Georgetown simply appears to be pressuring their big men into throwing the ball away.

As you can also see from Pomeroy's defensive rankings, the once vaunted Georgetown defense that propelled them to back-to-back Big East titles in 2007 and 2008, appears to have left Healy Gates with the departure of 7'2" Roy Hibbert.

In the 2007-08 season, Hibbert's last as a Hoya, their defense ranked first in the country, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 42.0.  

This year it's 46.3 percent according to Pomeroy, good for 67th in the nation.

The defensive lapses can be somewhat attributed to the turnover problem: It's harder to block shots and play tenacious defense when trying to stop fast breaks.

This is where Georgetown's lack of depth comes into play.

Since the Hoyas only have two legitimate post presences—Monroe and Vaughn—they must be extra wary of cheap fouls.  

I've noticed a tendency where if one of them goes all-out for a block and fails, the opponent is often left with an easy layup or dunk. All this occurring while other Hoyas  stand and shrug their shoulders.

Now, are these problems correctable?  

Yes.  

Easily correctable?  

No.

The turnover problem has plagued Thompson's past teams so I wouldn't expect a sudden turnaround anytime soon.  Regardless, keeping our frontcourt players out of double-teams will go a long way in curbing that problem, making opponents pay if they attempt to do so in the post.

As for the rest of the season, the primary concern has to be the defensive lapses. You really start to wonder if you're a legitimate contender when Providence goes on a 32-18 run against you.

In one of his most recent mailbags, Sports Illustrated writer Seth Davis wrote: "A good player knows how to play well when he's not playing well. The same can be said for a great team...You have to dig out that kind of a win at some point during the NCAA tournament."

Currently, Georgetown is not a great team.

Can they get there before March?  

Sure.  

The wins over Duke, Pittsburgh, and Villanova prove that the Hoyas can compete with any team in the country on a good day.

However, if the Hoyas don't figure out how make it through the slough of turnovers and defensive breakdowns, they'll miss their third consecutive Sweet 16.

You do realize they haven't won more than three straight games since December, don't you?