To Reach March Madness, Maryland Basketball Holds Serve

I don't wish to alarm anyone, but March is just a few weeks away. Bubbles. Bracketology. RPIs. Joe Lunardi. It's the best time of the year, and it's all coming our way, baby. 

As is the fashionable refrain among coaches and writers these days, it's useless to speculate on the madness that is March. No one knows how it will play out. It's anybody's guess. Guessing is a waste of time.

We all know it's true. And then we all do it anyway. Because it's fun. As sports are intended to be. So let's go.

At this point of the ACC season, Madame Conventional Wisdom has granted only Duke and Wake Forest with permission to start trying on dresses for the Big Dance. But despite assertions that the ACC is down, the conference could bring six or more teams to the tourney. Among those bubbling up are Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and a little team called the Maryland Terrapins.

Sitting at 17-7 overall and 7-3 in the ACC, the Terps likely need three more wins. There are six games left: tonight at N.C. State, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Clemson, at Virginia Tech, vs. Duke, at Virginia. On paper, the three most winnable ones are tonight, at Va. Tech, and at UVA.

An early acceptance to the tournament may not be in the mail, but there is a pretty clear path. Maryland need only do what they've been doing all season: beat the beatable, win the winnable. Simple as that.

Before going any further, here's the elevator speech on Maryland's tournament hopes: the bad news is they're 2-6 against opponents with top-50 RPIs (2-7 if you count William and Mary, which ranks 51), and both wins came against the same opponent—Florida State. The good news is the Terps are 15-0 against lesser opponents, with an average victory margin of 26. Furthermore, they are seriously protecting the house with a 12-1 home record. 

So Maryland can split its remaining games and make the postseason by beating the chaff and leaving the wheat for bigger threshers. It's not spectacular, but if making the tournament is the ultimate goal (and that question could be a whole other post), it's enough.

In boxing, there is a term for a team like Maryland: gatekeeper. If you're a contender, you'll beat them. If you're not, you won't.

Sound kind of vanilla? Trust me: plenty of Maryland fans will take it. We remember the team falling victim last year to Morgan State (vomit) and less-talented Miami, Boston College, and Virginia squads before a mad scramble somehow carried them to the tournament's second round. In 2007-2008—a year the Terps missed the tournament—they lost to Ohio "Not State" University, American, Va. Tech (twice), Miami, and UVA. In 2006-2007, two losses apiece to UVA and Miami were somewhat negated by a sweep of Duke, setting the stage for another cardiac run to the second round. 

However, as evidenced above, these insidious bed soilings have not been a problem for Maryland this season...and I know I'm sleeping easier for it. 

So why is this the case?

You could argue it's the front court. You can't overestimate how much a stable crop of bigs can open up a team's options. Freshman Jordan Williams, senior Landon Milbourne, and junior Dino Gregory are combining for 27 points and 17 boards per game. Even with Dino sidelined into December, this is a big spike over last year, when beloved but overmatched senior "Big" Dave Neal, junior Milbourne, and sophomore Gregory combined for 22 and 13.  

I'm not even going to mention Braxton Dupree. 

You could also argue that the team is more committed to defense. They're third in the ACC this year in field goal percentage defense and second in scoring margin; last year, they ranked seventh and ninth in those categories.

It's more than stats, though. The program just seems more stable.  No infighting (publicly, anyway) with the athletic department. No laughing (or crying) on the sidelines after losses. Less mugging. Smaller rabbit ears, both for fans and media. And is it just me, or is Comcast Center starting to rock a little more?

But of course, the biggest cause is the three seniors. That's huge in this year's ACC, in which the average starting lineup contains, by my expert calculations, fewer than three seniors. Eric Hayes has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.32, the best of his Maryland career. I've already touched on Milbourne, who, when he is not outmuscled by larger bigs, is a steadying (and unsung) force behind the curtain.

And then there's this guy named Greivis Vasquez. Maybe you've heard of him? Regardless of his play (and right now, he's a clear All-ACC first-teamer on any ballot), it's astounding how much emotion, positive and negative, exists for this guy. Love him or hate him, it's clear Vasquez is the best player on this team. I've seen that phrase so many times that I believe a name change is in order. 

"At guard, a 6-6 senior from Caracas, Venezuela, number 21, Love-Him-Or-Hate-Him-He's-The-Best-Player-On-This-Team-Greivis-Vasquueeezzzzzz..."

Outstanding.  The hyphens really make it.

I still believe that Vasquez (and, really, all the Terp seniors) have shown an inability to put the team on their backs in clutch situations against those aforementioned top-level squads. I think that keeps Maryland on the outskirts of the top 25, and will ultimately prevent a deep postseason run. 

Having said that, Vasquez is a better player--and leader--than before. Last year, a Duke loss subsequently led to a meltdown at home against BC. This year, Greivis and company again got spanked by the Dookies, but responded by destroying a decent Virginia team two days later. Vasquez led the way with 30...would have been nice to see that against Duke, but you can't win them all.

And I guess that's the point here.  Now that Maryland's path to the tournament likely does not go through a top-50 RPI team, what's the difference if they can't win the big ones?

Tonight, the Terps play their second game on Tobacco Road in four days against dying quail N.C. State. Maryland won the first game by 24. But it does get slightly interesting. At 2-9, N.C. State is starved for an ACC win. Maryland is on short rest, and Georgia Tech looms. 

Don't forget, too, that this is Vasquez's first visit to Raleigh since hitting a rub-it-in three at the end of a Terps victory last year, which he later said he did to quiet Wolfpack fans making racist remarks. I think we can all agree that Pack fans won't be very quiet tonight. 

But you know what? I'm not concerned. Maybe last year this would feel like a trap game. Not this year. Coach Williams, Vasquez, and company have to this point eliminated the letdowns, and in the process eliminated my remote control hurling quotient. Well, almost. That Ben Linus...he's just so smug.

In summary, your office isn't going to throw you a ticker tape parade for simply doing what you're supposed to do. But that doesn't mean you're getting a bad performance review. That's Maryland this year. Meeting expectations may not get you on a lot of highlight reels, but after missing the dance three of the past five seasons, it will more than suffice. And hey, once you're in, almost anything can happen.