Let's Make Some NBA Predictions...or Guarantees

The NBA has become about as predictable as Avatar, and making predictions is no longer something you need to be an expert to do successfully. 

Usually, I like to put some thought into predictions, because predicting sports is one of the hardest things to consistently do correctly. Sports are so great because of the upsets, the shockers, the cinderellas. Basketball should be this way too, because on any given night one team can get hot while the other is cold, and its anyone's game. The NBA is the opposite now. While anybody (besides the Nets) can beat anybody in a meaningless regular season game, no 7 or 8 seed will go on and win more than one best-of-seven series. 

This is why it's so easy to predict exactly what the NBA will come down to this season. So let's get down to it.

In the West, there is only one true contender: The Lakers. While the Nuggets are a tough team, and are the biggest threat to knock them off, in a 7-game series its just not going to happen. The way the West works is the Lakers (when healthy) are way above everyone else, the Nuggets far and away better than the next best team, and then nine pretty good teams. Any of these teams can beat the Lakers in a meaningless regular season game, but not four out of seven. The Lakers are simply so much more talented than the rest, have the best closer, the best coach, and the most experience. The Los Angeles Lakers (barring injury) will be in the NBA Finals again.

The East is a bit more up in the air. Everyone outside of the top 4 stinks, so the first round of the playoffs is irrelevant. However, the East Conference Semis and Finals look to be intriguing match-ups. The Cavaliers will get the top spot, and are clearly the favorites. However, they were last year as well, and we're completely outplayed by Orlando. If the Celtics are healthy and fresh, they can certainly beat anyone with their experience and defense, but its unlikely they won't be a step slow. If they happen to draw Atlanta in the second round they will get run out of the building, which is why they've been swept by the Hawks in the season series.

Orlando has the most talent and depth in the East, but never brings the energy for 48 minutes. They also don't have the favorable match-ups they did last year against Cleveland, because Vince Carter is a much less unique player than Hedo Turkoglu. 

Atlanta is the more athletic and fun team, but they don't play consistent enough defense to beat a consistently great defensive team in Cleveland. Also, I'm not a huge believer in playoff experience, but a team that young beating two veteran teams to get to the NBA Finals never happens.

So it comes down to the Cavs, who are right now the best team in basketball. They're the hungriest team in the league by far. LeBron is the hungriest player, and the fans are hungriest because of the Cleveland sports drought and the chance to keep LeBron in free agency. They are the best defensive team the league, and no one scores on them in the paint. They bring it every night, thanks to energy players like J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao (and LeBron doesn't take nights off). And I have a feeling The Big Witness Protection is saving some of his juices for May and June. 

So it will be Lakers-Cavaliers in the NBA Finals (now you can smile, David Stern). Which team will win will base a lot on who gets home court and who's healthier. Either way, Nike can start getting the Finals puppet commercials ready.