Arkansas State vs. Arkansas Little Rock Odds & Pick: February 4th 2010

Arkansas State vs. Arkansas Little Rock
Free Pick: Ark-Little Rock -2 -110 odds
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This is one of those lines that make you wonder why it is what it is. Arkansas St. is 8-2 in the Sun Belt Conference and leading the SBC West by two games while Arkansas-Little Rock is 2-8 in the conference and is six games back of the Red Wolves. Yet the Trojans are favored, the public is all over Arkansas St. and the line is going up. Part of the reason is the home/road dichotomy and another is the injury factor. The Trojans are 6-4 at home this season including wins in its last two SBC games against Denver and La-Lafayette while Arkansas St. is just 5-5 on the road this season. The Red Wolves will likely be without guard Daniel Bryant again as he has a shoulder injury sustained two games back. He is the team’s second leading scorer and their top three-point shooter which is a big disadvantage here. Arkansas St. is not a good three-point shooting team to begin with as it is hitting just 33.2 percent on the season and that bodes well for the Trojans. In their last four losses, Arkansas-Little Rock allowed a whopping 50 percent shooting from long range (40-80) but in the last two wins, it has allowed just 29 percent (18-62). The Trojans held Denver, the nation’s second-best shooting team, to a season-low 32.8 percent shooting from the floor including only 28.1 percent from behind the arc. On the flip side, the Trojans are hitting 40.1 percent from three-point land including 40.9 percent at home and 42 percent over their last five games. Arkansas St. is ranked near the top of the Sun Belt Conference in most offensive categories but as mentioned, three-point shooting is not one of them and neither is free throw shooting as the Red Wolves are hitting just 63.7 percent at the line which is last in the conference. Conversely, the Trojans are hitting 70.9 percent from the charity stripe including 75.9 percent at home. Another factor is strength of schedules as Arkansas St. has played a slate ranked 258th in the nation while Arkansas-Little rock has played the nation’s 135th ranked schedule. This is important when looking at the overall numbers including assist/turnover ratio. The Trojans have a 0.91 ratio which certainly is not great but the Red Wolves have a 0.92 ratio which is horrendous considering the easy schedule it has faced. In home road games, those ratios go to 1.18 for Arkansas-Little Rock and 0.80 for Arkansas St. The Red Wolves are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record while going 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of fewer than seven points. The home team has covered four of the last five meetings in this in-state rivalry and that continues tonight. 3* Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans