Big East Preview: West Virginia Leads a Balanced, Competitive League

Big East Preview

In advance of Big East play, here are some projections for the season as well as a quick look at some of the strengths and weaknesses of each team in the conference.  Below are my projections, in reverse order of expected finish in league play, based on an analysis of schedules and each team’s performance to date.

16.  South Florida (2-16)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

South Florida isn’t a very good team.  Even in a supposed rebuilding year for the conference, USF does not exactly have any “easy” games on its schedule.  It’s hard to see the Bulls defeating any team in the conference by more than a few points.    

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

The Bulls are off to an impressive 10-2 start with wins over Virginia, Kent State, and UNC Wilmington.  The inside-outside tandem of Dominique Jones, a 6'4'' guard who averages 18.6 points per game, and Augustus Gilchrist, a 6'10'' sophomore who averages 18.8 points per game, could lead this team to a few surprise victories in a Big East schedule that is not as difficult as last year’s.   It’s unlikely that USF can finish any higher than 12th, though.

15.  Providence (3-15)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Providence does not yet have a quality win this year.  The Friars have already lost to Alabama, BC, URI, and Iona.  Yes, Iona.  In what should be somewhat of a rebuilding year for the Friars, they will struggle against bigger opponents.  Providence’s two best players, 6'5'' forward Marshon Brooks and 5'10'' guard Sharaud Curry, will have to carry this team on their shoulders to compete against most teams in the Big East.  With a young, inexperienced frontcourt, Providence will definitely struggle in the paint.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

This is a team that finished 10-8 in conference play last year, which was good enough for an eighth place finish.  The Friars finished ahead of teams like Cincy, Notre Dame, and Georgetown.  With a solid core of players returning, including Brooks, Curry and role players like Kyle Wright and Brian McKenzie, this squad should battle with lots of teams this year.  Also, keep an eye out for Jamine Peterson, a 6'6'' sophomore from Brooklyn, who currently leads the Friars with over 17 points and 10 rebounds per game.  If Peterson can fill the middle effectively, Providence could very well finish higher, and possibly even in the top 10 of this league.

14.  DePaul (4-14)

Why this projection is probably accurate: 

DePaul finished with zero conference wins last year, but the Blue Demons should be slightly better this year because they return their two best players—6'0'' senior Will Walker and 6'10'' junior Mac Koshwal.  This inside-out combo provided a spark to DePaul in the early part of this season, as DePaul defeated Northern Iowa and St. Joseph’s and only lost to Tennessee by four points.  Still with a recent foot injury to Koshwal, who will not return for another ten days or so, DePaul has really struggled (losses to American and Florida Gulf Coast).

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

After failing to register a win last year in conference play, this team is hungry and might be overlooked by many opponents in the conference.  If Koshwal can return to form and be effective for DePaul (when healthy, he averages a double double), the Blue Demons might surprise some people this year.  Unlike Providence though, this team has virtually no chance to finish in the top 10 of the conference.

13.  Rutgers (5-13)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Rutgers is a very average team that can never seem to win on the road.  The Scarlet Knights took a huge hit recently when they learned that leading rebounder Gregory Echenique will be sidelined for the remainder of the season with a freak eye injury.  The loss of Echenique will really hurt Rutgers in the paint.  Leading scorer Mike Rosario, a sophomore from Jersey City who averages close to 18 points per contest, will have to put this team on his shoulders if Rutgers is going to scrap its way to more than five wins in the conference.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

Rutgers won’t finish in the top half of the conference, but the Knights could finish better or worse than 13th depending on the play of Hamady N’Diaye.  N’Diaye is a skilled but erratic 6'11'' senior who plays very well at times, particularly on the defensive end, averaging an incredible 5.7 blocks per game.  Rosario’s energy and N’Diaye’s consistency, especially as a rebounder, will determine how well Rutgers will fare in conference play. 

12.  Marquette (6-12)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Marquette will be rebuilding more than any other team in the conference.  Losing players like Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews will be no small task.  Buzz Williams will rely on production from seniors Lazar Hayward and David Cubillan as well as junior guard Jimmy Butler.  Marquette already has surprising wins over Michigan and Xavier, so if this team can continue to gel over the course of the season, it may surprise some of the favorites in this conference, particularly at home.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

Marquette finished fifth in the conference last year.  While it may be true that the Golden Eagles lost three of their top players, they do return an experienced backcourt, along with Hayward, who is one of the most versatile forwards in the conference.  Marquette rarely loses at home, and if the Golden Eagles can come together as a team and get some production out of sophomore Darius Johnson-Odom and senior Maurice Acker, Marquette certainly has a chance to finish in the top half.

11.  Pittsburgh (8-10)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Pittsburgh holds the current streak for most consecutive trips to the NCAA Tournament, but that streak will certainly be in jeopardy this year.  The Panthers lose three of the most dominant players in the league from a squad that almost advanced to the Final Four, including Levance Fields, Sam Young, and DaJuan Blair.  Replacing the production of this trio will be achallenge all season long.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

Pittsburgh always rebounds and is very well-coached.  It returns some experienced players, such as senior Jermaine Dixon and juniors Gilbert Brown and Brad Wanamaker.  But watch out for Ashton Gibbs, a 6'2'' sophomore from Scotch Plains, NJ, who leads the team in scoring with over 16 points per contest.  If he starts finding his rhythm, the Panthers could be a difficult team to beat. 

Teams should also pay attention to Gary McGhee, Pitt’s leading rebounder, who plays the role of Chevy Troutman on this year’s squad.  He’s tough and physical and will be a thorn in the sides of lots of teams.  Pitt is always dangerous, and it’s entirely conceivable that this team finishes in the top eight and goes to the Tourney yet again.

10.  Notre Dame (8-10)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Seniors Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson return to a Fighting Irish team that finished ninth last year in the conference.  With Big Luke anchoring things in the middle, averaging over 24 points and 10 boards per game, the Irish should be competitive in most games they play.  Tim Abromaitis and Ben Hansbrough should assist Harangody in the paint and help the Irish battle with most teams in the conference, especially when they play at home.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

It’s hard for me to see this Irish team finishing much higher or lower than 10th.  This might be off by one or two spots, but Notre Dame won’t finish in the top four or bottom four of the conference.  It just won’t happen.  When the Irish learn how to play defense, then maybe they’ll compete at an elite level in this conference.  It will definitely be interesting to see whether ND makes the Tourney this year—Harangody and Jackson will certainly be pushing this team in that direction—it’s up to all of the other moving pieces to determine if the Irish can squeeze their way into the postseason.

9.  Cincinnati (9-9)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

The Bearcats are extremely deep and talented but a bit inconsistent.  With nonconference wins against Maryland and Vanderbilt, Cincy has shown that it can defeat quality opponents.  There’s no doubt that the Bearcats will finish in the top half of the conference. The only question is how high they can go.  Led by an impressive trio of players—senior guard Deonta Vaughn, sophomore forward Yancy Gates, and electric freshman Lance Stephenson—Cincy has an exceptional core of players.  With role players like Rashad Bishop, Larry Davis and Dion Dixon, Cincy can compete with anyone in this conference.   

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

Cincinnati has a nice blend of experience and youth and always plays hard.  If this projection is wrong, it’s because Cincy is exceeding expectations.  I can easily see this team finishing in the top four.  With Yancy Gates, Steve Toyloy and Biggie McClain, the Bearcats are tough in the frontcourt, and with Deonta Vaughn at the helm, the Bearcats will always be led by a savvy leader at the top of the key. 

Perhaps the biggest reason for a finish at the top of the conference will be the production of Lance Stephenson.  While inexperienced, Stephenson is one of the most talented and athletic players in the Big East.  If he starts putting things together, Cincy could be an extremely dangerous team.  I fully expect this team to make the Tourney.

8.  St. John’s (10-8)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

This is the best St. John’s team in six or seven years.  And this is Norm Roberts’ big opportunity to make the Johnnies relevant once again.  St. John’s not only has great depth, it also has the most experienced team in the Big East, with one senior and 10 juniors.  The lone senior, Anthony Mason Jr., is entering his fifth season after coming off of an ACL tear a little more than a year ago.  Mason is probably the best player on this team, but he’s yet to play this season because of a persistent hamstring injury. 

Even without Mason, though, the Johnnies have looked sharp in November and December, winning a tough game against Temple and battling hard in a close loss at Duke.  Juniors D.J. Kennedy and Dwight Hardy have both averaged double figures in the early part of the season, and once Justin Burrell returns from a high ankle sprain (he was injured during the Duke game), St. John’s will offer a fairly deep and balanced attack.  This team should be squarely on the bubble throughout February.  St. John’s has the added benefit of not having to play the Big East’s preseason top five teams more than once.        

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

Injuries.  Already, Justin Burrell is out for at least another week (he may be back in time for the Georgetown game) and Anthony Mason Jr. is likely sidelined until mid-January.  Without Mason and Burrell on the floor, St. John’s will still put a lot of players out there, but the Johnnies will need these two if they are going to finish in the top half of the conference. 

If Mason and Burrell come back healthy and are able to contribute immediately, St. John’s could finish as high as seventh.  If not, the Johnnies could struggle, particularly on the road, and might find themselves somewhere around 12th in the league.  Mason’s ability to return to action, including his ability to gel with a group of players with which he has rarely practiced (because of the ACL injury) will go a long way in determining how far the Johnnies will go this year (and could also determine whether Norm Roberts will keep his job). 

7.  Seton Hall (10-8)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Like St. John’s this year, Seton Hall has put together its best team in over five years.  Featuring 6’5’’ junior sharpshooter Jeremy Hazell, who is already averaging 20 points per game, Seton Hall boasts a high-powered offense that has thus far averaged the second highest point total per game in the country.  With Hazell, 6'0'' senior Eugene Harvey and transfer Keon Lawrence (from Missouri), the Pirates will have a very quick and athletic backcourt. 

Up front, Seton Hall is led by 6'8'' sophomore Herb Pope and transfer Jeff Robinson (from Memphis)—two long and athletic big men who complement the backcourt well.  With the Pirates' frenetic style of play (run 'n' gun on offense and controlled chaos on defense), they will be a very difficult out in the conference.  Expect the Hall to be competitive in most games this season.  Like the Johnnies, they should be fighting for a Tourney berth all year.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

Seton Hall’s shot selection is questionable, and its free throw shooting is atrocious (64 percent).  If Seton Hall hits a rough stretch during conference play, particularly at the start of the season, it could be a long year for the Pirates.  Like Georgetown last year, Seton Hall has the most difficult Big East schedule at the outset (first six games: West Virginia, Syracuse, at UConn, Cincy, at Georgetown, Louisville).  If Seton Hall can survive the first half of its Big East schedule, it should be in decent shape heading into February.  If not, it could be a long year for Bobby Gonzalez.  Shooting will likely be the Hall’s Achilles heel all season.

6.  Louisville (11-7)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Louisville has arguably the most depth in the conference.  Despite losing Terrence Williams, Earl Clark and Andre McGee, the defending Big East champions regularly play nine or 10 talented guys in each game.  With its effective full court press and speed on the perimeter, the Cardinals should still be able to compete at a high level.

The speed of Preston Knowles, Peyton Siva, and Edgar Sosa, along with the strength of Samardo Samuels, Terrence Jennings, and Jared Swopshire, will allow this team to remain afloat in the top half of the conference.  Senior Jerry Smith is also still on the team and will provide a significant perimeter threat.  In a so-called rebuilding year for the Cardinals, few will notice any change in their success.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

The reigning Big East champs are deep and talented, but they’ve already struggled early this season with losses against UNLV, Western Carolina, and Charlotte.  While it may be true that Pitino’s teams traditionally improve as each season progresses, it’s hard to tell how well Louisville will adjust to the losses of key players like Terrence Williams and Earl Clark (NBA first round draft picks last summer).  A finish anywhere between fourth and 10th wouldn’t surprise me.

5.  Georgetown (13-5)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

The Hoyas boast one of the more dominant trios in the conference with do-everything sophomore Greg Monroe and juniors Chris Wright and Austin Freeman.  Georgetown has a starting five that can probably compete with most teams in the country, and early victories against Butler, Washington, and Temple have demonstrated the Hoyas’ talent. 

Jason Clark and Julian Vaughn are both much improved players and will be expected to contribute immediately and compensate for the losses of Jessie Sapp and DaJuan Summers.  Most have said that rebounding was a problem last year, but this year it hasn’t been as much of an issue, as Clark, Vaughn and newcomer Hollis Thompson have all done well to help out on the glass.  Most importantly, the Hoyas look much improved on the defensive end. 

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

There are several reasons why Georgetown could finish as low as 10th in the conference.  Probably the biggest reason is depth; the Hoyas regularly play only six players, and with the recent transfer of Nikita Mescheriakov, now only have nine scholarship players on the roster.  That could certainly impact a few games this year, especially if Monroe or Wright gets into foul trouble. 

Two other reasons for a possible slide are turnovers and perimeter shooting.  Clark will be central to both of these concerns.  If he limits his errant passes and shoots well from outside, the Hoyas will be tough to beat.  But if Georgetown struggles from the perimeter, it could be a long season.  If last year taught us anything, it’s that Georgetown can beat anyone in the conference, but it can also lose to anyone.  See last year (wins over Villanova, Syracuse, UConn and losses to St. John’s twice, and Seton Hall).

4.  Connecticut (13-5)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Despite the losses of Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and A.J. Price from last year’s Final Four team, UConn still probably has the strongest backcourt in the conference with Jerome Dyson (20 points per game) and Kemba Walker (13 points and over 6 assists per game) leading the way.  That explosive backcourt is complemented by a pretty solid frontcourt.  Stanley Robinson might very well be the best power forward in the conference and Gavin Edwards has been a consistent rebounder and defender as the Huskies’ sixth man.  UConn once again looks good. 

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

UConn lost a lot of talent from last year’s team.  But it’s hard to replace Price’s leadership, Adrien’s rebounding, and Thabeet’s defensive presence all at once.  In its only two challenges this season, UConn fell short against both Duke and Kentucky.  Against elite competition, how will the Huskies respond in Big East play? 

The answer probably depends on the development of two freshmen big men: 6'9'' Alex Oriakhi and 6'10'' Ater Majok.  Oriakhi has been very strong in the beginning of this season, while Matok has only recently started to play.  If Oriakhi and Matok can improve and help Robinson and Edwards in the frontcourt, this team has a chance to be special.  If not, the Huskies could drop as low as eighth.

3.  Villanova (13-5)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

Villanova returns a solid core of players from last year’s Final Four squad, including guards Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Corey Stokes.  Up front, the 'Cats will once again have Reggie Redding (who recently returned from suspension) and Antonio Pena (who averages close to a double double).  Throw in heralded freshman Dominic Cheek and transfer Taylor King from Duke, and you see why this team may not lose a step.  Many project that this team can follow its deep Tourney run with yet another long run.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

It’s possible that 'Nova will miss last year's players a lot more than they realize. Guys like Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark and Dante Cunningham were more than just role players —they were physical guys who helped 'Nova on the glass and provided some necessary muscle.  Pena and Redding are nice contributors, and Taylor King has thus far looked really good, but this Villanova team is not the same as last year’s team. This year’s version might be just as talented, but it will have to work out some kinks and find out how to compensate for the losses of three solid players.  The loss of Cunningham is definitely the most significant.

2.  Syracuse (13-5)

Why this projection is probably accurate: 

This is the most balanced team in the conference.  Still undefeated, Syracuse can win from the outside with Andy Rautins, Brandon Triche, and Scoop Jardine, or it can control the paint with Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson.  If anything is missing, then preseason Big East player of the year Wesley Johnson, a 6'8'' junior transfer (from Iowa State) will fill in the gaps. 

Johnson leads the Orange in scoring (over 16 points) and rebounding (eight boards) per contest.  He is also probably Syracuse’s best defender.  With victories against UNC, Florida and Cal in the early part of the season, Syracuse has shown that its vaunted 2-3 zone is already in midseason form.  This should be a huge year for the Orange. And watch out for 6’-7’’ sophomore Kris Joseph – he’s the most athletic player on the team and he doesn’t even start.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

Free throw shooting.  Syracuse is the worst free throw shooting team in the conference (61 percent). As talented as the Orange may seem, you have to think that abysmal shooting from the charity stripe will cost this team a couple of conference wins. It’s only a matter of time.

That said, Syracuse will likely finish somewhere in the top four of the conference, and if West Virginia stumbles, Syracuse could easily finish in first. It’s hard for me to see this team falling that far down.  Even if you say that Syracuse’s wins against UNC, Florida and Cal aren’t as impressive as they once seemed (considering all three teams have since compiled seven additional losses), you have to admit that the Orange have looked strong. Barring injuries (which is certainly possible because of Rautins’ history), this team should be well positioned for a top Big East finish and a deep Tourney run.

1.  West Virginia (15-3)

Why this projection is probably accurate:

West Virginia is the best team in the conference because it has the most dominant frontcourt and lots of depth.  Its starting lineup consists of no player shorter than 6'7'', and it includes one of the favorites to win Big East player of the year—6'7'' senior Da’Sean Butler, who can dominate on the inside or step back and hit jumpers.  With Devin Ebanks and rising star Kevin Jones joining Butler in the paint, the Mountaineers are a force inside and will be very difficult to beat.  Rebounding and defense alone will propel this team to the top of the conference.  Foul trouble will never be a problem either, as WVU goes 11 deep, and guys like John Flowers and Wellington Smith can really play.

Why this projection is probably inaccurate:

Guard play could be an issue.  With such a big lineup, West Virginia could be frustrated by smaller, faster lineups.  Guards Darryl “Truck” Bryant and Joe Mazzulla are serviceable, but they’re not great shooters.  WVU might struggle against teams with talented and quick guards, such as Louisville, Seton Hall, and UConn.  Still, the sky is the limit for this team.