Case of Another NHL Franchise In Southern Ontario (School Report)

Toronto was one of the first six cities to possess a professional hockey team and the first win Lord Stanley’s Cup. Toronto is the city which holds this cup all year round at the Hockey Hall of Fame. The city’s current franchise, the Toronto Maple Leafs, is the most valuable team in the National Hockey League and one of the most prestigious teams in sports. How can suck a populous area with so much history and passion for the game of hockey only possess one hockey franchise? The Maple Leafs sold out every single home game last season (Sportsnetwork.com, 2009), why would it not be the same somewhere else in the Greater Toronto Area such as Hamilton, Vaughan or Downsview? I believe that Southern Ontario can support a second NHL franchise based on the population of the area, passion for the sport, and household income.

Population

                The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), is defined by four major regions in addition to the City of Toronto. These regions include Halton, which is to the west, Peel, to the northwest, York to the north and Durham, to the northeast. The population of the GTA was recorded at 5,555,912 in the 2006 Canadian Census (Statistics Canada, 2006), but estimates of the population currently are in the six million range. Below is a chart of all cities with an NHL team, their population, and the population of the metropolis.  

City	Team Name	City Population	Metro Population
New York	Rangers	8,250,567	18,818,536
Los Angeles	Kings	3,849,378	12,950,129
Chicago	Blackhawks	2,833,321	9,505,747
Toronto	Maple Leafs	2,503,281	5,555,912
Montréal	Canadiens	1,620,693	3,635,571
Philadelphia	Flyers	1,448,394	5,823,233
Dallas	Stars	1,232,940	6,003,967
Calgary	Flames	1,019,492	1,079,310
San Jose	Sharks	929,936	7,228,948
Detroit	Red Wings	918,849	4,468,966
Ottawa	Senators	808,391	1,146,790
Columbus	Blue Jackets	733,203	1,725,570
Edmonton	Oilers	730,732	1,034,945
Vancouver	Canucks	611,869	2,249,725
Nashville	Predators	607,413	1,498,836
Boston	Bruins	590,763	4,455,217
Washington D.C.	Capitals	588,292	5,300,000
Denver, CO	Avalanche	566,974	2,408,750
Atlanta	Thrashers	486,411	5,138,233
Raleigh, NC	Hurricanes	374,320	994,551
St. Louis	Blues	353,837	2,801,033
Anaheim	Ducks	345,556	2,987,591
Pittsburgh	Penguins	334,563	2,370,766
Tampa	Lightning	332,888	2,700,000
St. Paul’s, Minn	Wild	287,151	3,502,891
Newark, NJ	Devils	281,402	18,818,536
Buffalo	Sabres	279,745	1,254,066
Glendale, AZ	Coyotes	246,531	4,039,182
Sunrise, FL	Panthers	90,227	5,422,200
Uniondale, NY	Islanders	23,011	7,536,000

Chart provided by: Stathockey.net, 2008

                As you can see, Toronto is fourth in population, behind the three American power cities; New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. The bottom three teams, Phoenix, Florida and New York, all have high metro populations but very low local populations. The average population for an NHL franchise is 1,109,338. This proves that theoretically any city with 1,109,338 can support an NHL team, based on their population.

                Population is important to any sports franchise but not as important as their fan base. Let’s take two cities for example; Dallas and St. Paul’s, Minnesota. Dallas is the seventh most populated city that houses an NHL franchise at 1,232,940. The average attendance for the Stars in the 2008-2009 season was 17,680, which was the 14^th best attendance in the league (ESPN.com, 2009). St. Paul’s was the 25^th most populated city on the list at 287,151, yet Minnesota’s average attendance last season was 18,568 which was the ninth best in the league and better than Dallas. Although Dallas and its metro area is more populated it does not have the hockey interest that Minnesota does. Minnesota is known as the capital of hockey in the United States and it is the birthplace to most American NHL players.

                In some cases, Metro population has more to do with the team’s popularity and financial success then the actual city population. Teams such as the Devils, Islanders, Coyotes and Panthers all rely on the major cities surrounding them to contribute to the fan base and the attendance. An example would be the New Jersey Devils, who reside in Uniondale, New Jersey which only has around enough residents to fill the stadium. But, they are not far from Manhattan, one of the most well known cities in the world, with a population of over eight million people. Along with the rest of the state of New Jersey, the Devils rely on the fact that people will commute from Manhattan to see a game. This situation would be similar to the one in Hamilton or Vaughn, if they were ever to acquire an NHL team. Hamilton had a population of 504,559 in 2006 (Statistics Canada, 2008), and they are continuing to grow. Vaughn had a population of 238,866 in 2006 (Statistics Canada, 2008). They would need to assume that some of the residents in Toronto would commute to attend the games.

Overall Hockey Passion

An issue that also is raised when moving a hockey team, is whether the future city has a big enough market, and generate enough interest to make some money. Last year in Canada, 33.8% of boys, who participate in organized sports, ages 4-14, played hockey. 25.2% of men ages 15 and over, who participate in organized sports, played hockey (Statistics Canada, 2008). In 2006, ice hockey was rated the 17^th most popular sport to play in the United States with just over 2.5 million participants, all ages throughout the country (United States National Census, 2009). In Canada, soccer was the only sport that outshot hockey in participation rates from active children ages 4-14, and golf was the only sport that outshot hockey for those men ages 15 and over (Statistics Canada, 2008).

                Another indicator of passion for hockey in a city is TV viewership. The NHL ratings have drastically shot down since the 2004-2005 lockout, but they are slowly climbing back. Versus, the NHL’s main network in the U.S. during the week, sees around 311,000 viewers per game while TSN, Canada’s main network, catches 483,000 viewers per game. As for the weekend specials, CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada, which is broadcasted Saturday Nights only, has around 850,000 upward per game and NBC’s Sunday Afternoon special averages in and around 800,000. The fact that more Canadians watch hockey than Americans on a daily basis suggests that a new Canadian franchise could make a ton more money for the new team, and the television stations who broadcast them.

Household Income

It is quite clear that Canada has a better hockey market than the United States, but can they afford it? Canada’s average total income for families with two or more members is steadily rising. In 2007, the average was at $83,300, when four years earlier in 2003, it was at $79,000 (Statistics Canada, 2009). More specifically, in Toronto, the average income in 2006 was $75,829 (CBC News, 2008). We can not conclude much from the ticket prices of the Toronto Maple Leafs as they are the highest in the league. The average ticket price for a Toronto Maple Leafs game is $70 (Forbes.com, 2008), The Phoenix Coyotes, the team that has been considered to move to Southern Ontario, have an average ticket price of $39 (Forbes.com, 2008). An assumption can be made that if the new franchise were to settle on a ticket price in between those two, it would be quite reasonable to attend a game.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is quite evident that based on population, passion for the sport, and household income, Southern Ontario can support a second NHL team. Hockey is Canada’s sport and the fact that there are only six teams in the NHL from Canada is an embarrassment to our culture. We need to have more representation in Canada from professional sports in general and it begins here, in Southern Ontario, one of the biggest sports markets in North America.