Deal or No Deal? NBA's Prospective Midseason Transactions
We are a good distance into the regular season, and now that we have had a good look at the strengths and weaknesses of NBA teams we can start to see what the standings will look like at the end of the year.
Some surprises and some disappointments, to be sure, but the top of the standings have been predictably stable.
In a matter of weeks, teams will begin to shore up on talent as they make a push for the playoffs, and teams that are going to lose their best talent at the end of the year are weighing their options and tentatively feeling the market out for the upcoming fire sale.
So let's look at a few of the teams who will probably be moving some players (and some teams who can't), and see where they might fit in on other clubs.
Philadelphia
This team is a bit difficult to understand, but one thing is for sure—they are not competing for a playoff spot anymore.
They have some great young talent in Lou Williams and Thaddeus Young, but beyond that the roster is open for improvement.
Iguodala is probably stuck because he is a fan favorite and he sports a large contract, but I have to think that if the right offer was made, the Sixers would have to think about.
He would fetch a good market price because of the desperation of so many teams looking for a shooting guard or small forward, and he is also taking minutes from Thaddeus Young at his true position.
Since Young absolutely is the future of the Sixers, giving him some help and clearing the way for him to play his natural position would be in his benefit.
Unfortunately, the Sixers, despite their record, probably can't move anyone. Dalambert is a possibility, but only teams who believe they have no chance at a big free agent this coming offseason would make a move for him (would the Thunder take a chance on him?). This bad team is stuck with their bad roster for a while.
Washington
This is another intriguing club. They can surprise any team on any night, so I have to believe that if they are in contention for a six-to-eight seed, they won't move anybody.
Their last three games were losses by one, two, and four points; but the reality of the matter is that things need to shake up if they want to compete for the remainder of Arenas' massive contract.
Antawn Jamison isn't on the block yet, but he should be. Caron Butler might be the best player on the team, and since his contract is so reasonable (two years, $20 million), lots of teams will be knocking if the Wizards continue to explore the basement of the East.
But even if those three players are off-limits, the rest of the roster is up for grabs.
Mike James would be a nice fit for a team looking for help at backup PG, and since he is struggling so much this year his asking price is going to be very reasonable.
The Thunder, Jazz, Magic (if Nelson continues to miss time), and possibly even the Lakers with their under-performing PGs will all inquire. Haywood is also a name you might hear in trade talks as the Wizards try to give their young big men playing time.
New York
I don't know what to predict with this team. A huge payroll full of terrible players with a few gems.
I doubt they part with many of them because there are so many expiring contracts, and they are sure to get one of the big free agents this summer. They might stand pat.
One player they want to get off their books is Jared Jeffries, so expect to see him given away with draft picks and young talent to some team not looking to get into the free agent shenanigans this off-season.
They have $60 million coming off the books this year, and they'd love to make it $66 million.
Chicago
This is another enigma. It's pretty clear that they have some real talent, but they have huge holes all over their roster. If they want to compete in the surprisingly tough Central, they need to find a SG. To do that, though, they would need to give up some big talent.
The Tyrus Thomas experiment is nearing its end, and the team has moved on. They have one of the most valuable commodities in Brad Miller, so if the team wants to try to make a move they would have to include him.
Whether that happens this season or not depends on how much of a chance they think they have at Wade this summer. A possibility is with the group of young guards from Toronto, but the Raptors will probably want to cash in their trade bait for long-term commitments, not salary-relief.
Golden State is a possible trade partner with their stable of guards, but it't unclear if they want to trade any of that talent away.
Toronto
This is the team everyone is talking about. They have played so poorly this year that it is no doubt accurate to say they are the biggest disappointment of the year. Poor defense, no teamwork, no hustle, just a collection of individual performances.
I've never thought Chris Bosh was an elite forward, and this year just confirms it in my mind. But if you think for a second that he isn't going to get a max contract from someone you're crazy.
Toronto is going to try to get something for him. So let's look at trade partners.
The Thunder are emerging as a likely location. They have a ton of cap space and lots of young talent. It's hard to see what the Thunder could offer to satisfy the Raptors, but certainly it would include one of the four young players the Thunder have recently drafter.
Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are off-limits, and Harden wouldn't be a good fit. Would the Thunder give up Jeff Green for Bosh? I'd understand that they would not want to make the trade, but if OKC wants to compete in the West they'll need some big.
It's doubtful that either Bosh or Amare Stoudemire would sign in the offseason, so it's just a fact that they would have to part with some young talent to get him. Green for Bosh? Maybe.
I won't say much about the rest of the roster, but really no one is safe except for those protected by big contracts. Everyone will have a look at the roster and make an offer for someone.
One team I think will take a look at the guards is the Spurs. They just can't say healthy, so even though it's unlikely a move will be made, I wouldn't be floored if they did something. The Raptors are the best target since they are guard rich and the Spurs are guard depleted.
Hornets
Injuries have made this team uncompetitive for the season. Expect them to silently auction off some of the players around Chris Paul as they try to retool for next year. West is a likely target, and a team looking for bigs will offer something.
*Full disclaimer* As a Bucks fan, I'd love to see a Michael Redd for West move, and I think it makes both teams better. The contracts are approximate, and Paul has never really had a true SG.
The Bucks need someone to play down low and run a pick for Brandon Jennings and Luke Ridnour, and they have good talent behind Redd to take up some of those minutes.
Redd's knee is likely to stand in the way of any trade, though, and this is probably just a fanboi pipedream.
Conclusion
There really is no telling what will happen this year. I could be wrong on every player in the article. Every year some team pulls off a heist that no one was expecting, and teams that are rich get richer. I don't count out the Cavs to do something to help LeBron, and they are added to a long list of teams looking for a SG.
The Mavs need help for Dirk Nowitzki, but Mark Cuban is too afraid to pull of the big deal to help his guys [Harris trade gave him a spanking].
The Lakers need a PG, the Celtics could use a combo guard, and the Heat are just a mess. On the other hand, some surprising team like the Rockets might try to pull off a big trade as they make an unexpected push into the upper half of the playoff race.
In any case, as we prepare for one of the most exciting summers in free agent history (of any sport), this could prove to be one of the most exciting seasons as far as midseason transactions go as teams who calculate themselves to be out of the Wade/Bosh/LeBron/Johnson hunt try to capitalize on the two-plus year contracts keeping teams out of this summers festivities.
Hold on to your butts.





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