2010 Busts: Edwin Jackson

Since being drafted by the Dodgers at age 17, Edwin Jackson has been seen as a guy with tremendous potential. 

His 100 mph heat made it easy for scouts to dream of a future ace and it wasn’t long before Jackson would see big league action at age 19. Despite his electric fastball, Jackson didn’t find success with the Dodgers and was eventually shipped to Tampa Bay. 

His time with the Rays didn’t go much better as he posted ERA’s in the 5-plus range and FIP’s in the 4.50-plus range his first two seasons. Then in the winter of 2008 at the still very young age of 24, Jackson was sent to his third franchise, the Detroit Tigers. 

2009 would, on the surface, appear to be Jackson’s breakout season. He started off as hot as could be posting a first half ERA of 2.52 while striking out 7.2 per nine innings and walking only 2.6 per nine. 

His ERA and WHIP, however, were in part the result of a low .249 BABIP against.  Things would change drastically in the second half of the season.  Jackson’s BABIP against shot up to .312, his AVG against rose from .212 to .290, his K/9 dropped a full strikeout per nine to 6.2 and his BB/9 rose to 3.4.

Those second half numbers resulted in a 5.07 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, which were much closer to his career averages.

On the whole, Jackson ended 2009 with just slightly above average strikeout numbers and a 4.28 FIP (over a half run higher than his ERA). 

Now Jackson will take his blazing fastball to his fourth team, the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Though moving to the National League, there are a few issues to be concerned about when looking forward. Chase Field was second only to Coors Field for inflating runs in 2009. 

For the past two seasons, Jackson has induced slightly more fly-balls than groundballs, which makes it harder to suppress BABIP. Over the past three seasons Jackson has averaged about 24 home runs per 200 innings and that rate has risen slightly each consecutive season. No matter what league one pitches in, those numbers remain worrisome.

The bottom line

Jackson brings unimpressive peripherals and a second half collapse to a hitters park in 2010. The D-Backs weren’t as good defensively as the Tigers in 2009 according to UZR .

Look no further than Dan Haren’s 2009 numbers (only 14 wins despite a 3.14 ERA) to see just how much the D-Backs offense will help (or not help) Jackson in the win department.  Edwin Jackson should settle in as a nice third starter in the Major Leagues, but his fantasy value looks to regress in 2010, making a mid round draft pick on him unadvised.