Hollinger: Portland Trail Blazers No Longer a Threat out West?

In today's PER Diem , Hollinger takes a look at why the Blazers are struggling. Surprisingly, it's more than just injuries, the startling thing is shots:

Plumb the numbers further, and there's one big change we haven't talked about much: shots. Last season the Blazers won by taking shots. Lots of them. Because of a slightly below-average turnover rate and a league-leading offensive rebound rate, Portland launched more shots per 100 possessions (100.1) than any other team in the league ("shots" being defined as field goal attempts plus 0.44 times free throw attempts). The Blazers were relatively accurate, too, ranking eighth in true shooting percentage, but the real story of their season was one of quantity rather than quality.

This season? Portland's accuracy hasn't changed at all; the Blazers' true shooting percentage is nine points ahead of the league average, just like it was a year ago. The problem is that they're generating fewer attempts. Portland takes 96.7 shots per 100 possessions, barely beating the league average of 96.3.

More than three shot attempts per game have simply vanished into the ether. The causes are that the Blazers' turnovers have increased, while their offensive rebounding has declined in roughly equal proportion. The Blazers rank only fourth in offensive rebound rate at 29.6. While that's still an impressive figure, the drop hurts —so much of their attack was built on second shots.

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