NHL Entry Draft: Analyze This!

I did this back in April, but I am going to revisit the past 20 sixth overall picks and take a look at the Jackets' chances of hitting a home run with a surefire NHLer.

1987: F Dave Archibald (323GP 57G 67A 124P)
1988: F Scott Pearson (292GP 56G 42A 98P)
1989: D Adam Bennett (69GP 3G 8A 11P)
1990: D Scott Scissons (2GP 0G 0A 0P)
1991: F Peter Forsberg (706GP 249G 636A 885P)
1992: F Cory Stillman (839GP 234G 368A 602P)
1993: F Victor Kozlov (749GP 169G 273A 442P)
1994: F Ryan Smyth (788GP 270G 294A 564P)
1995: F Steve Kelly (147GP 9G 12A 21P)
1996: F Boyd Devereaux (604GP 61G 107A 168P)
1997: F Daniel Tkaczuk (19GP 4G 7A 11P)
1998: F Rico Fata (230GP 27G 36A 63P)
1999: G Brian Finley (4GP 0G 0A 0P)
2000: F Scott Hartnell (436GP 93G 118P 211P)
2001: F Miko Koivu (146GP 26G 49A 75P)
2002: F Scottie Upshall (95GP 17G 25A 42P)
2003: F Milan Michalek (161GP 44G 58A 102P)
2004: G Al Montoya (0GP 0G 0A 0P)
2005: F Gilbert Brule (85GP 11G 12A 23P)
2006: F Derick Brassard (17GP 1G 1A 2P)
2007: F Sam Gagner (79GP 13G 36A 49P)



Breaking Down All 20 by Positions

•two goalies
•two defensemen
•16 forwards



Without the Past Five Draft Picks, Some General Take-Aways

•On average you can expect 316 games out of the player we pick sixth. That equates to just roughly under four seasons of play—of course you have to take into account partial seasons for development, injuries, etc.

•On average, the sixth overall will produce 85 goals throughout his career. Of course, that number will be higher for forwards and less for defensemen.

•On average, the sixth overall will produce 102 assists.

•Then you add both of those together and you get, on average, the sixth overall will give you 187 points in a career.

This will be the third time the Jackets will pick sixth overall.



Now I will break down this list a little further and take some liberties on the past five picks so that I can include all 20 of them.



Further Breakdown

•one superstar in Forsberg

•five all-stars in Smyth, Kozlov, Michalek, Gagner, and Stillman

•three really good NHLers in Hartnell, Koivu, and Brassard

•four productive NHLers in Upshall, Archibald, Pearson, Brule, and Fata

•five flat out busts in Bennett, Scissons, Kelly, Tkaczuk, Montoya, and Finley

Now Brule could easily become a bust. Montoya could be productive eventually as we all know it takes goalies a long time to develop. I could also see Brassard as an all-star.

Now this isn't a perfect science, but all in all, I'd say there is about a 50 percent chance you'll at least get a really good NHLer. Then there's a 25 percent chance you'll get an all-star and a five percent chance you'll get a superstar.

Really not that bad odds, but probably not as great as you'd think they'd be either



Four days to go!