Astros Offer Arbitration To Valverde, Not Hawkins, Brocail Or Tejada

The Astros made a very sensible decision to offer arbitration only to Jose Valverde, one of three Type A free agents. Valverde earned 8 million in 2009 and would certainly be due a raise. However, an arbitration award would most likely not net him more than 12 million, the typical salary of a top notch closer.

It is most likely that Valverde could net a multi-year deal elsewhere for at least 10 million a year, and that he would decline arbitration to pursue that. A reasonable gamble with upside.

If he did accept, he could always be traded for prospects at the deadline, unless Drayton McLane is suffering from his usual inability to see the forest for the trees and thinks that the Astros are "competitive." It would, however, hinder efforts to spend that 10 or 12 mill on GOOD bench players.

Brocail, a type B FA (can you believe he was even typed, given the fact that he lost most of the year to injuries and didn't pitch well when he DID pitch) was already paid his $250K buyout. He may or may not try to latch on with another team, or even re-up with the Astros at a significantly reduced salary, but offering arbitration would certainly net him a bigger payday than what he is worth.

Miggy Tejada, the second of the 3 Type A FA, was paid 14.5 million last year, and he will most likely not be able to earn even half of that in 2010, let alone receive more than a 2 year deal, if that. He certainly is not worth any 14.5 million but would most likely not receive any significant salary cut in arbitration. I know that he is supposed to have all this "leadership" - whatever that is - but he certainly didn't exactly lead the Astros to greatness last year.

It will be interesting to see what team will finally bite the bullet and sign Tejada, as they will have to give up a first or second round pick to do so. And no, I don't want to resign him for 2 years to play third base, ground into endless double plays while fielding like Mike Lamb.

Fast Eddie is supposed to be trying very hard to re-sign Hawkins, the third Type A FA. I would guess that Hawk wasn't offered arbitration because the Organization was afraid that he would receive more in arb than he will in his new contract - that is, IF he signs a new contract with the Astros. I would guess that he probably would, as most teams are extremely reluctant to cede draft picks to sign a setup man, and he clearly saw what happened to Juan Cruz last year.

Richard Justice recently wrote a blog entry asking readers - OK, given that you can NOT trade Berkman, El Caballo Gordo or Oswalt, what would YOU do if you were Ed Wade?

Naturally, half the readers said to trade one or all of those 3 guys.

Really?

Carlos Lee will be paid 18.5 mill this year, 2011 and 2012, which is a HUGE amount of money for a DH or a terrible defensive LF (who knows if he could play 1B?) who is the second worst baserunner in the majors (next to Bengie Molina) according to the Bill James tables.

Now WHAT team out there is going to agree to take El Caballo Gordo, that is, assuming he would agree to be traded, for that kind of money AND give us any prospects? Which team HAS that kind of money to spend on a DH for the next 3 years?

The purpose of trading Lee would be essentially removal of his salary from the payroll. Let's be real here. No team, and I mean NO team, is going to give the Astros any minor leaguer worth anything for 3 years of a DH at 18.5 mill/year. Anyone who thinks different has more than a few screws missing. Anyone who thinks that Drayton is going to PAY some team perfectly good money for the sole purpose of getting rid of his RBI man (and fan fave) to get some other team's major league rejects or untested minor leaguers in hopes of getting another Jeff Bagwell, also has a few screws loose.

We have NO minor leaguers who look to be ready to replace the production Carlos does give. So do we play some of them anyhow? When they hit like Ausmus and field like Mike Lamb (in left), do we go out and sign another Jason Michaels? Which reminds me - who wants us to go and sign yet ANOTHER expensive FA to a long term contract? Who wants us to sign another crappy washed up MLer to a 1 year job?

Lance Berkman?
Well, this is the last year of his contract, and he'll get 14.5 mill (and yeah, you have to think about his 15 million dollar option and his 2 mill buyout, too). Now if all yall remember, he had a lousy (for him) year last year. Some club would have to gamble on a bounceback year. One more time - now WHICH club out there is going to pay that kind of money for a guy on the downside of his career who very well might NOT have that last bounceback year?

Who here really thinks that this mystical club is gonna pay 14.5 mill PLUS a buyout/option year AND give the astros even ONE good, young player?

Now that just might could happen at the deadline, all right, especially if Lance has a good year, but not now. At that time, Drayton might could possibly eat a few mill IF Tal/Eddie/Pam persuaded him he was getting back at least ONE guy who had some serious upside, especially if he could be put right on the ML roster.

Roy?

Well, he'll be paid 15 mill this year and 16 mill next year, and he has a 2 mill buyout. I love the boy to death, but he's had nagging injury problems and back problems for a couple of years now, and I doubt he's going to turn back the hands of time to 5 years ago. He really isn't worth ace money any more - sorry, but unfortunately, it is true.

What evidence is there that any team has any interest in trading for him right now, let alone giving us any good prospects for him?

I think that the days of the Braves giving 4 top notch prospects for 1 major leaguer with 2 team-controlled years are gone. I think the days of teams giving prospects for old and expensive non-ace pitchers in their last 2 years of a free agent contract are LONG gone.

The thing is that Drayton has to sell tickets. He is going to have a lot of trouble doing so if he appears to be getting rid of all his highly paid players so that he can lower the payroll by 50 million dollars while fans at the ballpark pay 6 bucks for a soda and 8 bucks for beer. If Drayton starts coming off like Jeff Loria, he will see his ballpark filled like Marlins Stadium (or whatever its most recent name is.)

Stars market a team. They do. Drayton CAN'T market very well with Wandy, Pence and Bourn - and a handful of cast-offs. IF he were to undergo full scale rebuilding of the sort that was done in the early 90s, he would have to make very VERY sure it didn't look to fans as if he wanted an extra 50 mill for himself. AND he would have to populate the entire team with guys who appear to be rising STARS, not just Erstads or Cody Ransoms.