Pre-Game Analysis: Blue Jackets vs. Blues

Well, I'm back with another fearless prediction—this time, I've got a lot of swagger, after almost nailing the final score and outcome in the CBJ's game against the Preds, on the 21st. 

A wise person would quit while they're behind—well, I'm not that wise person.  Lest we forget, I also had possibly the worst prediction, ever, against the Red Wings, a week or so earlier.  Then again, no one saw that one coming.

That being said, here's the backdrop for this game.

During the 2008-2009 season, the St. Louis Blues became what the Nashville Predators had been, for the last several seasons, the CBJ's "Darth Vadar".  Columubs had a 1-4-1 record against the Blues - from their end, a 5-1-0 record.  Needless to say, the Blues had the CBJ's number, and then some.

So, on to the analysis:

OFFENSE

On the surface, this is an easy one to call:  The edge goes to Columbus, by quite a bit.  Currently, St. Louis ranks 29th in goals scored and 24th in goals scored/game, at a not-so-prolific clip of 2.41 goals/game.  Not Nashville, mind you, but, still struggling, offensively. 

Also, unlike Nashville, their leading goal scorers are primarily forwards, with David Perron leading the way with 9 tallies.  Columbus is tied for 9th place in GFA, and, like St. Louis, their firepower is primarily forward-based.  Their leading goal scorer is Rick Nash, but their secondary scoring has become quite steady. 

It's also comforting to know that Kristian Huselius has really come on as of late, being their best and most productive forward, since returning to the lineup, two weeks ago.  As it relates to SOG% - goal scoring, in relation to shots on goal—Columbus also has an edge, although, it should be noted that St. Louis' total shots on goal are very close to Columbus' SOG totals. 

Blueline goal scoring is somewhat identical; however, as it relates to total points from the blueline, Erik Johnson trumps any defenseman the Blue Jackets have, with 17 points (14 assists) in 24 games, played.  Welcome back, Mr. Johnson! (after the former no. 1 pick, overall, suffered a season-ending knee injury, last season) However, that being said...

Edge: Jackets

DEFENSE

From the standpoint of shots allowed, Goals Against Average - GAA, Save %, shots blocked - defense, and offensive production from the blueline, the edge definitely goes to St. Louis, with Eric Johnson leading the way. 

In assessing the CBJ's defensive prowness, only Jan Hejda's currently has a plus rating (in the +/- rating statistics), with a +1.  Otherwise, and this should come as no surprise, given the defensive lapses of the last five games, the +/- edge also goes to St. Louis. 

However, the reuniting of Rusty Klesla with Jan Hejda seemed to have a steadying effect on the first line and defensive unit, the last two Blue Jacket contests.  Now, about those remaining CBJ defenseman, steady Mark Methot, aside...

Edge: Blues

GOALTENDING

This one isn't even close, no matter who is in net, for either team.  St. Louis' tandem of Chris Mason, someone who has had the CBJ's number going all the way back to his years in Nashville and former CBJ netminder, Ty Conklin, trump the CBJ's tandem of Steve Mason and Mathieu Garon. 

It also helps having a staunch, defensive-minded team in front of the goaltenders, as St. Louis stays within their system.  Their struggles, early on, were a result of a lack of goal scoring, and not in their defensive schemes and goaltending.

In short, there's something to be said for a goaltender's, like Chris Mason's, confidence, whether it be night after night, or against a particular opponents.  No matter how you slice it...

Edge: Blues

SPECIAL TEAMS

I sure hope you're all sitting down.  My, how times have changed.

The Blue Jackets remain the no. 1 ranked Power Play - PP - in the NHL - a 26% conversion rate, while St. Louis, a PP that I have often said should offer film of their PP to Columbus (as a demonstration as to how it's done) ranks dead last, with a paltry 12.4% conversion rate.  If you didn't know any better, you'd swear they have the order in reverse, as that was Columbus' general PP conversion rate, for the 2008-2009 season (12.7%, actually).

As for the Penalty Kill - PK, Columbus ranks 18th in penalty killing, at a 78.8% rate, whereas St. Louis is much better, here, having the 8th best PK rate, 83.0%.

This should be a battle of strength (CBJ PP) vs. strength (St. Louis PK) and weakness (St. Louis PP) vs. weakness (CBJ PK - well, mediocre, anyway).  For the Blue Jackets, this will all come down to staying out of the penalty box.  Even if the Blues have struggled, so far, they do have the personnel who can execute the PP to near perfection, so, keeping the Blues PP opportunities to a minimum is critical.

Edge: Jackets

X FACTOR

This one comes down to the psyche, much like Columbus' issues in playing at the Sommet Center (Nashville's home venue). 

St. Louis has had the CBJ's number, last season, and late in the 2007-2008 season.  And, while St. Louis struggled out of the gate, they have been coming on as of late, with a 5-3-2 record.  The Blue Jackets, conversely, are in the midst of a 5 game winless streak, all games of which they blew leads, with suspect defensive lapses.  Although, during the past two games, it appears that the CBJ have successfully avoided trying to get into what Ken Hitchcock refers to as "track meets".

Let's not forget:  These two teams, and, in particular, these two head coaches do not like each other, as Andy Murray, the guy who I believe should have won the Coach of the Year honors, last season, did not get the Blue Jackets coaching position that Ken Hitchcock eventually got.  Don't think, for a minute, that it still doesn't motivate Andy Murray, every time he coaches against the CBJ.

So, when you combine the issues of a team who's dominated, thus, getting into the heads of their opponents, with facing a team who also has a confidence issue...

Edge:  Blues

Prediction:  Blues 4, Jackets 3 (OT or SO)

However, if Columbus can do what they failed to do in Nashville, and what they've failed to do during their five game winless streak—come out of the gate, guns a blazin', keep the pressure on the Blues, get the pucks deep into the Blues defensive zone, clear the pucks from behind the goal line, and, figuratively, step on their throats, they can break through and defeat the Blues.  I sure hope so, but that's a lot that has to go right.