Buying or Selling 2022 NBA Playoff's Breakout Stars
One of the best parts of the 2022 NBA playoffs has been the breakout of some of the league's rising stars, those who have elevated their games to the next level now when games matter the most.
This is a list that includes players like Jalen Brunson of the Dallas Mavericks, Jordan Poole of the Golden State Warriors and more. With the postseason still in its infancy, however, we haven't gotten a real large sample size of data to analyze. It's fair to wonder how many of these players have truly taken the next step towards stardom and who's simply taken advantage of cushy matchups thus far.
It's time to Buy or Sell the latest wave of breakout playoff stars.
De'Andre Hunter, F, Atlanta Hawks
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Regular Season Stats Per Game: 13.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 44.2/37.9/76.5 shooting splits
Postseason Stats Per Game: 21.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 55.7/46.2/80.0 shooting splits
The only player on this list who failed to make it out of the first round, Hunter's performance against the Miami Heat still deserves some recognition.
With Miami hounding Trae Young on every possession (which resulted in an average of 15.4 points on 31.9 percent shooting for the series), Atlanta desperately needed someone else to step up offensively, a challenge that only Hunter answered.
Having averaged just 10.8 points in his first postseason run a year ago, Hunter more than doubled his scoring average this time around, hitting jump shots and spot-up threes with regularity.
After connecting on 38.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes during the regular season, Hunter drilled 47.6 percent of his assisted attempts against the Heat. He also ranked in the 93.8th percentile in isolation scoring this postseason, registering 1.27 points per possession on 58.3 percent shooting.
This is a terrific sign for an Atlanta team in need of star power around Young. Hunter has shown flashes during his three seasons, but injuries have always seemed to derail any type of momentum he's begun to accumulate. While he's not a playmaker by any means, the 24-year-old has the tools to develop into a high-level three-and-D wing.
The Hawks should try to lock Hunter into a team-friendly extension this offseason while they can, citing his injury history as a reason to keep his average annual value around $20 million or less.
While it was a small sample size, Hunter looked good when healthy against one of the league's toughest defenses, including a 35-point, 11-rebound performance in Game 5. The No. 4 overall pick in 2019, injuries are the only thing holding Hunter back.
Buy or Sell: Buy Hunter's playoff success as a preview of next season, if he can stay healthy.
Brandon Clarke, F/C, Memphis Grizzlies
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Regular Season Stats Per Game: 10.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 blocks, 64.4/22.7/65.4 shooting splits
Postseason Stats Per Game: 15.1 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 blocks, 69.7/00.0/67.4 shooting splits
Clarke has been a good big man off the bench for the past three years in Memphis, and now he has shined during his increased minutes this postseason.
If a Sixth Man Award was given out during the playoffs, Clarke would be the frontrunner right now.
Among players who have come off the bench five times or more this postseason, the 25-year-old ranks first in rebounds per game, second in scoring, sixth in blocks and eighth in assists, making his impact across a variety of areas. His true shooting percentage of 71.2 ranks fourth among all postseason players, starters and reserves.
As a roll man, Clarke is generating 1.43 points per possessions on 80.0 percent shooting, better numbers than players like Joel Embiid, Bam Adebayo, Rudy Gobert and even teammate Jaren Jackson Jr. He does a terrific job of staying within Ja Morant's line of sight, timing his cuts to the basket, which often result in an emphatic slam.
While his numbers have jumped, this seems to be more of a result of increased playing time as Memphis has gone smaller and quicker by using Steven Adams in limited minutes.
Clarke's per-36 numbers are remarkably similar between regular season (19.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.0 blocks) and postseason (18.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 blocks), so increased opportunity has assisted his playoff breakout more than anything.
Likely too small to be a regular starting center at 6'8" and 215 pounds and not enough of a three-point shooter to be a starting power forward for most teams, Clarke is probably in his ideal role as a high-minute sixth man, one who pairs well next to Jackson.
It's great that he's received more of an opportunity, especially with a larger audience watching, but his breakout has been primarily because of an increase in playing time.
Buy or Sell: Sell Clarke becoming a "star," buy him continuing to get more minutes moving forward.
Tyrese Maxey, G, Philadelphia 76ers
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Regular Season Stats Per Game: 17.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 48.5/42.7/86.6 shooting splits
Postseason Stats Per Game: 22.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 51.4/41.5/92.3 shooting splits
Maxey became a household name this season thanks to a second-year breakout, and has now gone from 58th in regular-season scoring to 17th in these playoffs.
His emergence as a primary scoring option on some nights has been out of necessity, be it Joel Embiid missing two games with a concussion and orbital bone fracture or James Harden starting to show his age now in his 13th straight postseason.
Maxey has become the Sixers' second-leading scorer behind Embiid, jumping Harden in the offensive food chain in Philly. He's a nightmare to try to slow down in the open floor, with only Giannis Antetokoumpo registering more transition possessions this postseason than Maxey. The 21-year-old is shooting 62.5 percent in transition and ranks in the 87.5th percentile overall.
As Harden continues to slow down and Embiid continues to receive the majority of the defensive attention, Maxey will be a critical piece of the Sixers moving forward. He's already moved past the "pleasant surprise" stage into the "this guy is the real deal" hemisphere, with this playoff run confirming that Maxey can elevate his game on the biggest stage when his team needs him the most.
While it may be too early to say that Maxey is actually better than Harden, he's certainly the more important piece over the next few years. There's nothing about his play that suggests it's unsustainable, either.
Buy or Sell: Buy Maxey turning into an All-Star level player and the second-most important Sixer.
Jalen Brunson, G, Dallas Mavericks
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Regular Season Stats Per Game: 16.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 50.2/37.3/84.0 shooting splits
Postseason Stats Per Game: 24.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 45.7/33.3/87.8 shooting splits
Following a stellar regular season, Brunson has now jumped to 13th overall in postseason scoring, even ahead of players like Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, Karl-Anthony Towns and others.
His breakout began in Dallas' first three games of the playoffs against the Utah Jazz when Luka Doncic was sidelined with a left calf strain. Brunson stepped into a primary scorer and playmaker role, averaging 32.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists while the Mavs took a 2-1 series lead.
In our current NBA universe where point guards are only getting taller and more athletic, Brunson is a throwback at 6'1", instead relying on his court awareness, dribble hesitation and ability to finish in and around traffic when finding success.
Only Luka Doncic and Ja Morant are averaging more drives per game than Brunson's 20.3, with only Doncic generating scoring points off drives than Brunson's 13.9. His ability to get into the teeth of the defense despite not possessing Doncic's size or Morant's athleticism is a testament to his overall skill set.
While his scoring numbers suggest Brunson has arrived as No. 1 offensive option, that's probably a little too aggressive of a statement at this point.
The Mavs have a net rating of minus-5.1 when Brunson is on the floor this postseason without Doncic, a number that jumps to plus-5.5 when the two share the court. We've also seen Brunson's shooting efficiency fall this postseason when asked to play a larger role. It appears Brunson's ideal position is still that of a complementary scorer and playmaker, rather than one who can carry a team by himself like we've seen from Doncic, Morant or others.
Brunson has elevated himself to a Fred VanVleet-like level, a player who should flirt with All-Star status every year but isn't ready to be a true focal point. Either way, he'll get paid handsomely this summer in free agency.
Buy or Sell: Sell Brunson as No. 1 offensive option, buy him as a No. 2 or high-level No. 3 option on a championship team.
Jordan Poole, G, Golden State Warriors
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Regular Season Stats Per Game: 18.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 44.8/36.4/92.5 shooting splits
Postseason Stats Per Game: 22.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 55.1/44.7/87.1 shooting splits
Once upon a time there was talk of the Warriors pooling (no pun intended, seriously) their young talent together to try and chase another star, a player like Bradley Beal, who could help their legendary backcourt make a few more title runs.
With the emergence of Poole, no trade is necessary.
The 22-year-old has followed a breakout season with an even better start to the playoffs, increasing his scoring output, playmaking numbers and shooting efficiency while Golden State has gone 5-2 thus far.
Poole has been equally dangerous as a spot-up option this postseason (45.0 percent on catch-and-shoot threes) as he is when initiating for himself (44.4 percent on pull-ups) and ranks in the 87.5th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (1.12 points per possession).
His high-level of play even allowed the Warriors to bring Stephen Curry, a two-time MVP and three-time NBA Finals champion, off the bench while he recovered from foot injury.
Poole is second to Curry on the Warriors in scoring, and is arguably the second-best player now on a Golden State roster that also features Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins. His evolution as both an on- and off-ball threat has helped both Curry and Thompson maintain their previous playing styles while also easing their collective burden as they enter their early-to-mid 30's.
He's become the perfect third guard in Golden State, one who should be recognized as a bona fide star in this league.
Buy or Sell: Buy everything with Poole. He's proved himself as a star.
Stats (as of May 6) are courtesy of the NBA and Basketball Reference.
