Teams on Upset Alert on Day 4 of 2022 Men's NCAA Tournament

The specter of upset madness is still alive and well as we turn the final pole of this frenetic first weekend of the men's NCAA tournament.

The Big Dance's second day was decidedly chalky, especially compared to the wild Thursday that preceded it. Friday's action saw two No. 11-No. 6 upsets, but those were pretty much the high-water marks from an upset perspective.

The tournament's most significant upset to date, No. 8 UNC's upending of No. 1 and defending champ Baylor on Saturday, was just a continuation of the chaos that started with Thursday's slate of games.

Does that mean Sunday will follow Friday and be another chalky affair? Maybe not. In fact, we've identified four favorites on the eight-game schedule that we think have the makings of a shocker.

We're using DraftKings betting odds to determine upset status for Sunday's games, and they are ranked here from biggest upset to the smallest.

Auburn Tigers (Midwest Region, No. 2 Seed)

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Wendell Green, Jr.

Opponent: No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (24-10)

DraftKings Moneyline: Auburn -320 (bet $320 to win $100)

After a three-week stay atop the AP poll, Auburn stumbled down the stretch, going 3-3 in its last six, including a disappointing loss to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament quarterfinals.

An 80-61 win over No. 15 Jacksonville State was a soothing elixir. It saw the Tigers remind everyone of the strengths that make them elite.

The first is their defense, which held the Gamecocks to 19-of-61 shooting overall (31.1 percent). Jacksonville State could not get past 7-footer Walker Kessler, who blocked nine shots to go with 13 points and 10 rebounds. 

The second comes in the personage of Jabari Smith, who B/R's Jonathan Wasserman projects as the No. 1 pick of this year's NBA draft. Smith poured in 20 points on 6-of-13 shooting, including 4-of-7 from three. He had a relatively down game against Texas A&M—17 points but needing 16 shots to get there—so a return to form is welcome for Tigers fans.

Those two towers could spell trouble for Miami's guard-heavy lineup; big man Sam Waardenburg will have his hands full. But the Hurricanes do have a few things going for them. 

In their hard-fought 68-66 win over USC in the opening round, the Canes shut down well-regarded big man Isaiah Mobley, who managed just 11 points on 3-of-11 shooting.

They also take care of the ball, with their 12.5 turnover percentage and 4.5 turnover margin ranking ninth and sixth nationally this season, respectively. Auburn thrives when it's turning defense into offense, and Miami's ball control could stop that in its tracks.

How's this for finding a silver lining: Miami beat USC while sinking a grand total of one three-pointer in 14 attempts. The Canes have got nowhere to go but up on that front. It's unlikely leading scorer Kameron McGusty (36.5 percent shooting from deep this season) will again shoot 0-of-3 from beyond the arc.

Duke Blue Devils (West Region, No. 2 Seed)

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Paolo Banchero

Opponent: No. 7 Michigan State Spartans (23-12)

DraftKings Moneyline: Duke -275

No matter what else happens in this season's tournament, this is the marquee coaching matchup in the field.

Every game Duke legend Mike Krzyzewski coaches from here on out could be his last. Sunday, he'll lock up with MSU's Tom Izzo.

The Blue Devils auto-piloted to a 78-61 victory over Cal State Fullerton in their tournament opener. Michigan State penned a different story, tip-toeing past a good Davidson team 74-73. The largest lead of the game for either team was eight points, with a hard-nosed MSU defense clamping down on the Wildcats in the second half.

From the 9:44 mark to the 3:40 mark, MSU allowed only two field goals on 2-of-7 shooting.

On offense, the key for the Spartans—and this would need to continue if they're going to have a real chance against Duke—was the play of Joey Hauser. He exploded for 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting, including 4-of-6 from deep.

MSU fans have to hope that breaks him out of a slump that saw him score an anemic 4.8 points per game over the five contests preceding the Davidson matchup. It's a crucial offensive booster rocket to supplement leading scorers Gabe Brown and Max Christie, who are each logging nearly 30 minutes a game.

Duke's bigs will pose a problem. Paolo Banchero and Mark Williams collectively went for 32 points, 17 rebounds and nine assists against Cal State Fullerton. With all due respect to Marcus Bingham Jr., MSU appears overmatched in the paint. 

So the Spartans will have to provide help and convert threes at or above the 37.4 percent clip that was good for 23rd in the nation this season. A resurgent Hauser would help.

With Duke having a clear talent edge, a Michigan State win would require plenty of grit. But to paraphrase Hunter S. Thompson, the Spartans are chock full of that, man. And they could be the ones to send Coach K off into the sunset.

Villanova Wildcats (South Region, No. 2 Seed)

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

E.J. Liddell (right)

Opponent: No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes (20-11)

DraftKings Moneyline: Villanova -210

Villanova didn't show any weaknesses against No. 15 Delaware, cruising to an 80-60 win. But with all due respect, that's precisely what was supposed to happen.

We know Villanova is good, but a victory over a Blue Hens team that has never beaten the Wildcats in 16 tries doesn't tell us a whole lot about the state of the squad. It is their sixth straight win, though, and the Big East tournament champs' guard-heavy lineup hit on 13-of-28 three-point attempts (46.4 percent) while combining for 16 assists. 

In taking down Cinderella darlings Loyola Chicago on Friday, Ohio State showed a renewed commitment to defense, particularly beyond the arc. Not only did the Buckeyes hold the Ramblers to 41 points, but they also allowed only eight three-pointers on 28 attempts. That percentage (28.6) was nearly 10 points below Loyola Chicago's season percentage of 38.3 heading into the game.

Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann told reporters after the game that it was "the best defensive performance we've really had in a couple years." High praise, and it couldn't come at a better time.

So now it's just a question of which Ohio State defense shows up Sunday. Will its defense again rise to the challenge, this time against a far more potent offense, or will it revert to the team that dropped four of five, including surrendering 78 points to moribund Nebraska, to end its regular season?

After Friday, the Buckeyes' chances seem a lot better.

Wisconsin Badgers (Midwest Region, No. 3 Seed)

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Izaiah Brockington

Opponent: No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (21-12) 

DraftKings Moneyline: Wisconsin -120

Iowa State may have righted the ship.

With the 10th-ranked defense on KenPom.com, the Cyclones pulled the No. 11-No. 6 upset over a like-minded LSU team, 59-54. In particular, their perimeter defense was stellar, restricting the Tigers to just four makes on 19 attempts (21.1 percent).

That's been the Cyclones' calling card all season, allowing just 29.4 percent shooting from three this season (15th in the country). Also interestingly, they only allowed 51.1 field-goal attempts per game, good for sixth nationally. So they know how to squeeze their opponents into tough spots and prevent easy buckets.

Still, plenty of observers wrote off ISU after it dropped three straight before the NCAA tournament. Those weren't so much a function of defensive lapses as offensive futility. The Cyclones only managed 48.3 points on 36.3 percent shooting in that stretch. Those are not good stats, no matter who you are.

The Cyclones need leading scorer Izaiah Brockington to go off if they're going to have a chance against Wisconsin. His 19 points against LSU represented the first time he's surpassed his season average (17.3) since February 23.

But back to defense, which is where ISU's bread will always be buttered. This could present a good matchup for the Cyclones. Wisconsin's offense is good but not great (49th in the KenPom rankings), and the Badgers only manage a .481 effective field-goal percentage—only 278th and significantly lower than Iowa State's 49.8. 

All that's to say, the Badgers might not have the firepower to break free of ISU's high-density defense. Brockington and Co. will have to make shots, but if their defense performs like it has all season, it could bring Wisconsin into the proverbial deep waters, where anything can happen. Another rock fight could be in the offing.

        

All stats courtesy of Sports Reference, NCAA.com and KenPom.com unless otherwise noted.

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