NIT 2022: Betting Odds, Over-Under Predictions for Wednesday's Round 1 Bracket

The Dayton Flyers were not awarded the same luxuries as the three other top seeds in the 2022 men's NIT.

Dayton is the No. 1 seed in its bracket, but it will play on the road against the Toledo Rockets because the First Four of the NCAA men's basketball tournament is played inside its home arena. The Flyers do not have to make a long road trip to Toledo, but the situation could make the Flyers more vulnerable in their first-round contest.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs face a tougher set of circumstances for their opening-round clash with the Virginia Cavaliers. Virginia is the lower seed in the matchup, but the ACC side will play host because of construction at Mississippi State's arena.

The Cavaliers are favored and could advance because of their tough defense and home-court advantage.

Wednesday NIT Schedule

Mississippi State at Virginia (-2.5) (Over/Under: 124) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Towson at Wake Forest (-8) (O/U: 149.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+) 

Dayton at Toledo (-1) (O/U: 144) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+) 

Nicholls at SMU (-15.5) (O/U: 153.5) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+) 

Northern Iowa at Saint Louis (-3.5) (O/U: 149) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Iona at Florida (-.6.5) (O/U: 144) (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Long Beach State at BYU (-11.5) (O/U: 152) (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Predictions

Dayton at Toledo (-1) 

Dayton was going to have trouble containing Toledo's offense inside its home arena.

With the first-round game in Toledo, the Flyers could go through more difficulties against the Rockets.

Toledo finished the MAC regular season with four straight 85-plus-point performances. It was regularly in the 80s during conference action, and it has one the best sets of offensive metrics in the country.

The Rockets rank 41st in free-throw percentage, 49th in two-point percentage and 62nd in three-point offense on KenPom.com. They are also ranked 53rd in three-point defense and 69th in two-point defense.

Toledo can efficiently win a game on both sides of the ball, which should scare its in-state rival from the Atlantic 10.

Dayton ranks in the top 50 on KenPom in two- and-three-point offense, but its production has been average at best lately. The Flyers produced 64 points in their Atlantic 10 tournament loss to the Richmond Spiders, and they were held under 65 points in two other contests near the end of regular-season action.

Despite those recent struggles, Dayton was the NCAA men's basketball tournament selection committee's First Team Out. The Flyers' resume is boosted by back-to-back wins over the Miami Hurricanes and Kansas Jayhawks in November.

Dayton is long way from the form that produced those two results, and it may be doomed for a first-round exit in the NIT if it fails to contain Toledo's offense.

Mississippi State at Virginia (-2.5) 

Mississippi State fielded one of the toughest draws in the NIT.

The Bulldogs have not played great basketball lately, and now they have to go to John Paul Jones Arena to face Virginia's stifling defense.

Virginia typically holds its opponents below 70 points. The Cavaliers let up more than 70 points three times in their past 13 contests.

Mississippi State scored 68 or more points in all but one of its eight SEC regular-season victories. If its offense does not click Wednesday, it could be in for a long night against the Cavaliers.

Virginia played its way to the fringe of the NCAA tournament bubble with a 6-3 mark after February 1 to close out the ACC regular season.

The Cavaliers stumbled in the ACC tournament, as their offense produced 94 combined points in two games.

Virginia earned all of its victories at home by holding the opponent under 60 points. That should be the goal for Tony Bennett's squad Wednesday night.

As long as the Cavaliers impose their style on the game, they should move on in the NIT.

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