Sleeper Picks for High-Major 2022 Men's CBB Conference Tournaments

Though it can be agonizing to some, the beautiful part of college basketball is that every team has a chance to win the national championship. This is entirely a product of conference tournaments, which account for 32 automatic bids to March Madness.

Even if a team finishes the regular season 12-17 or 2-26, a tournament crown still secures a ticket to the Big Dance.

On the other hand, if your favorite team is perched on the bubble as conference tournaments begin, welcome to your nightmare.

Anybody invested in the men's NCAA tourney is counting the spots remaining. Heading into conference tournaments, there are 36 at-large spots available. With every unexpected champion, however, that number might dwindle. And that's where our focus lies.

Let's be clear: Most of the teams mentioned won't win their tournament. Either a favorite or high-seeded team will likely do that. The point is to highlight programs with a decent shot at a surprise run.

Mountain West: UNLV Rebels

SOPA Images/Getty Images

Championship Date: Saturday, March 12 at 6 p.m. ET

When determining which program best fits the sleeper mold, the strongest option is a mid-league team that has notable wins and competitive losses to the league's upper echelon.

That criteria fits UNLV perfectly.

Holding an 18-12 record and a 10-7 mark in Mountain West play, the Rebels have swept Colorado State, beaten Wyoming and stayed within 10 points of Boise State twice. UNLV has this upside largely thanks to fourth-year guard Bryce Hamilton, who ranks seventh nationally at 21.6 points per game.

The Rebels will begin the MWC tournament opposite Wyoming, and Boise State will likely await them afterward.

Big 12: TCU Horned Frogs

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Championship: Saturday, March 12 at 6 p.m. ET

Perhaps the sleeper has just awakened.

TCU defeated both Texas Tech and Kansas—and nearly KU twice—in the final 10 days of the regular season. Those consecutive upsets ended a mini-cold streak for the Horned Frogs, who had dropped five of the previous seven contests in Big 12 action.

The victories also pushed TCU closer to the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament. Texas would present a tough matchup in the quarterfinals, but it's a winnable game for TCU.

While the No. 1 seed is likely to require a tiebreaker between Kansas, Baylor and potentially Texas Tech, TCU's recent wins over two of the three possibilities inspire a bit of optimism.

Big East: Seton Hall Pirates

Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

Championship: Saturday, March 12 at 6:30 p.m. ET

Throughout the regular season, Seton Hall has quietly occupied a safe position in the projected NCAA tournament field.

It's time for the Pirates to make some noise.

Kevin Willard's team is 19-9 overall and 10-8 in Big East contests, but it's been awfully close to a better mark. Five of those conference losses are to Providence, Villanova (twice), Marquette and Connecticut by no more than six points.

Although the official news of Bryce Aiken (concussion) being out for the season hurts, Seton Hall has played without the veteran guard for over six weeks. This isn't a new challenge to overcome.

Seton Hall needs a favorable bounce or two, but regular competitiveness against the Big East's top teams is an encouraging sign.

ACC: Virginia Cavaliers

Robert Franklin/Associated Press

Championship: Saturday, March 12 at 8:30 p.m. ET

Duke is the only elite team in the ACC this season; Virginia has already beaten Duke and has a season sweep of top-four seed Miami. That part is straightforward.

However, the Cavaliers also have undeniable incentive in the ACC tournament—beyond the obvious desire to stand atop the conference. Without a league crown, they'll probably find themselves on the wrong side of the discussion on Selection Sunday.

Virginia is 17-12 and has a potentially crushing 3-4 record against Quadrant 3 opponents. The number of bad losses is a major negative for UVA compared with other bubble teams.

But if the Wahoos run through the ACC tourney, that blemish will simply be a sidebar.

Pac-12: Oregon Ducks

Andy Nelson/Associated Press

Championship: Saturday, March 12 at 9 p.m. ET

Oregon has appeared in seven of the last eight NCAA tournaments and would've held a relatively high seed in 2020. After opening the season at No. 13 in the AP poll, though, the Ducks have steadily dropped outside the March Madness picture.

In the meantime, Arizona has emerged as the Pac-12 front-runner, with UCLA and USC not terribly far behind. But if there's any program that could rise in the league tournament, it's Oregon.

Provided the Ducks can outlast the quarterfinals, they'll probably take on Arizona. In mid-February, Oregon took the Wildcats to the wire in Tucson before falling 84-81.

Oregon swept UCLA, toppled USC once and lost 70-69 in the other matchup. The recent skid of four losses in five games is notable, but the best-case scenario is a dangerous team in Las Vegas.

Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Noah K. Murray/Associated Press

Championship: Sunday, March 13 at 1 p.m. ET

This is not exactly the greatest timing, given that VCU steamrolled St. Bonaventure by 23 points on March 1. Before the loss, though, the Bonnies had ripped off seven consecutive wins.

Besides, on Friday, they recovered to topple Richmond 72-65 and enter the conference tournament as the No. 4 seed.

Similar to Virginia, St. Bonaventure is indisputably on the outside looking in. The only path to a place in March Madness—barring a total surprise—is through an Atlantic 10 tournament title.

Davidson, VCU and Dayton are similarly hot, but St. Bonaventure will be a tough, motivated opponent in Washington, D.C.

SEC: LSU Tigers

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Championship: Sunday, March 13 at 1 p.m. ET

Is this a confident projection? Ha! Not a chance. No one should be surprised if LSU loses its opening-round game.

After all, the Tigers fell to Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in early February. Since tearing out to a 15-1 start, the Tigers are 5-9. Competition level matters, and the SEC is reasonably strong this season. But at some point, that's simply a bunch of losses.

Nevertheless, LSU assembled that excellent start and put serious scares into Kentucky and Arkansas in their home arenas recently.

The neutral-court setting figures to be beneficial for LSU, which is just 3-8 in road games and 17-2 otherwise. Auburn is the clear favorite, but LSU has definite upside in the SEC tournament.

American: Tulane Green Wave

Justin Rex/Associated Press

Championship: Sunday, March 13 at 3:15 p.m. ET

Assuming that Memphis doesn't count as a sleeper behind Houston and SMU, the AAC tournament is thin on sleeper candidates.

Temple has a couple of highly discouraging recent losses to both Memphis (78-64) and Houston (84-46). Cincinnati has fallen eight times in the last 10 games, and UCF lost badly to a short-handed Tulane squad by 15 points.

Good news for Tulane: That's the pick!

Bad news: Key guard Jalen Cook exited the recent loss to Temple and is unlikely to return soon if at all this season.

Even without Cook, the Green Wave shoot 36.9 percent from the perimeter. He's a major loss, but Alabama transfer Jaylen Forbes and Nebraska transfer Kevin Cross can brace the offense if sharpshooter Jadan Coleman finds a hot streak too.

Big Ten: Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Noah K. Murray/Associated Press

Championship: Sunday, March 13 at 3:30 p.m. ET

In the Big Ten, four leading sleeper options exist: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State and Rutgers.

I feel comfortable with zero of them.

Indiana has dropped six of the last eight games, while Michigan has managed a single three-game winning streak this season. MSU has had three losses of 16-plus points since the start of February, and Rutgers has lost to four of the league's five worst teams.

This is a difficult juxtaposition based on the inclusion of Rutgers as a projected loser in conference tournaments. But if a mid-tier Big Ten squad actually wins the tourney, it's most likely to be the program with victories over Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State and Iowa.