NBA Rookie of the Year Ladder: Can Anyone Catch Evan Mobley?
The newest additions to the NBA galaxy shone bright at All-Star Weekend.
Top pick Cade Cunningham captured MVP honors at the Rising Stars Challenge, where he teamed with fellow freshmen Evan Mobley, Alperen Sengun and Franz Wagner to help Team Barry take home the title in the new four-team tournament format.
On Saturday, Mobley calmly buried a half-court shot to give Team Cavs the Skills Challenge triumph over Team Rooks, which consisted of Cunningham, Scottie Barnes and Josh Giddey. And while Houston high-flyer Jalen Green came up short in the Dunk Contest, he did deliver a between-the-legs reverse 360.
With these and more first-year hoopers on the mind, it's time to take updated stock of the Rookie of the Year race and set the field ahead of the 2021-22 season's stretch run.
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10. Jalen Green, Houston Rockets
Green has the scoring numbers (14.6 in 30.4 minutes per night) and sizzle to sway voters his direction, but his credentials lack substance. The rebuilding Rockets aren't doing him any favors with their Western Conference-worst .259 winning percentage, but he isn't helping himself much either with shoddy shooting rates (38.7 percent overall, 31.1 from distance) and nearly as many turnovers (2.2) as assists (2.3).
9. Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
Kuminga is content filling a niche role for the championship-chasing Warriors, and that has held his counting categories in check (8.0 points and 2.8 rebounds in 14.5 minutes per outing). But the fact he already contributes to a contender goes a long way here. Should the Dubs decide to let him stretch his wings, he could soar. In the three games in which he's logged 30-plus minutes, he has put up 20.7 points on 57.1/50.0/68.2 shooting.
8. Chris Duarte, Indiana Pacers
Duarte plays like an old soul, which makes sense since, by rookie standards, the 24-year-old qualifies as old. But the Pacers are glad to have his polish and poise, which have manifested in the form of lights-out long-range shooting (1.7 threes, 36.4 percent) and a number of defense-ditching maneuvers off the dribble.
7. Herbert Jones, New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans learned quickly it needed more exposure to Jones, as it followed his three-minute debut by elevating him all the way to the starting five for his second NBA game. He has been a lineup fixture ever since—and the rotation's leader in net differential (plus-10.0 points per 100 possessions). His defense has been as advertised, while his offense already appears ahead of schedule (9.6 points on 49.9 percent shooting, 38 triples at a 35.8 percent clip).
6. Ayo Dosunmu, Chicago Bulls
Thirty-seven players were picked before Dosunmu last summer, meaning there should be a whole lot of regrets going around the front offices who let him pass by. The Chicago native looks appropriately right at home in the Windy City, where he is converting 52.3 percent of his field goals and 40.7 percent of his threes while nearly tripling his 1.2 turnovers with 3.1 assists.
5. Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic
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When predraft evaluations dubbed Franz Wagner as a plug-and-play wing, there was a criticism buried inside of the compliment. Decision-makers didn't doubt whether he could contribute right away, but the worry was he couldn't match the upside of the draft's blue-chippers.
That assessment lost its legs early, perhaps as soon as he debuted with eight consecutive double-digit outings.
The defense and distributing that attracted scouts have remained ever-present, but it's the volume and efficiency of Wagner's scoring truly turning heads. Only Cunningham averages more points among rookies—by the thinnest of margins (15.7 to 15.6)—while Wagner holds healthy advantages over the top pick in field-goal (46.6 to 39.4) and three-point (36.2 to 32.7) shooting.
Wagner has already pumped in 20-plus points 14 different times, or eight more than he did across two seasons at Michigan. Uncork a few more of these eruptions, and he could climb even higher on this ladder.
4. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
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A preseason ankle injury slowed Cade Cunningham out of the gate, and the state of the Pistons' rebuilding project plagues both the team-success portion of his argument and his shooting percentages (39.4/32.7/85.6 slash).
There are ways, in other words, to nitpick his Rookie of the Year credentials to pieces and reasons to put him (just) outside of the top three here.
Still, his talent is both obvious and overwhelming. At least, it can be when the injury bug leaves him alone.
He paces all rookies in points (15.7), ranks second in assists (5.2) and sits seventh in rebounds (5.5). His patience and across-the-board production point to a skill set that's advanced beyond his years and potentially will make him one of the Association's best at some point.
Detroit should feel nothing but encouraged about his future, even if his present falls short of Rookie of the Year honors.
3. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
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Scottie Barnes has proved to be an ultra-valuable glue guy for a Toronto team grooving to the tune of a .680 winning percentage since the calendar flipped to 2022.
He paces all rookies (and ranks fourth on the Raptors) at 35.4 minutes per night, and he is the lone freshman to rank among the top five in total points (706, third), rebounds (365, third), steals (50, fifth) and blocks (39, fourth). He is also one of just four rookies to post a positive plus/minus across 1,000-plus minutes.
He manages to simultaneously dazzle with both his floor and ceiling. Watch him, and you'll split your time being amazed by the player he is and imagining what he might become. As The Athletic's Eric Koreen put it, "The stylistic comparisons are all over the place: Draymond Green, Scottie Pippen, Giannis Antetokounmpo."
If anything holds back Barnes here, it is the regressing of his statistics since the Raptors became whole. Between October and December, he was going for 15.6 points (on 49.4/35.6/72.6 shooting), 8.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists per night. Since the start of January, he's down to 12.9 points (43.6/27.8/74.2), 6.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists.
This bump in an otherwise smooth rookie road opened the door for another wildly productive rookie to sneak ahead of Barnes and into the No. 2 spot.
2. Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder
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The competition is tightest between the Nos. 2 and 4 spots. While Josh Giddey hasn't done quite enough to seriously threaten Evan Mobley's crown, the Sooner State's star has stuffed enough stat sheets to force his way into runner-up territory.
He steamrolled into the All-Star break with three consecutive triple-doubles, becoming the Thunder's latest offensive engine to rub statistical shoulders with Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson. Giddey and Robertson are the only rookies ever to record three triple-doubles in a row.
"I thought he played a really good floor game again tonight," Thunder coach Mark Daigneault told reporters after Giddey's latest effort, a 17-point, 10-assist, 10-rebound performance. "The triple-double stuff is just a byproduct of how he's playing."
Now, much like Russell Westbrook once did, Giddey is sure to spawn some tricky talks about the actual impact of triple-doubles. Some might think this ranking gives too much credit to his volume numbers, since the Thunder aren't winning (18-40) and he isn't shooting particularly well from any level (41.8/26.7/70.5 slash).
But with Barnes starting to slide while Giddey is elevating, and Cunningham forming his argument around numbers that, on balance, don't quite measure up to Giddey's, it doesn't feel right going with anyone other than Giddey here. That can change over the next month-plus, of course, but for now, he is our silver medalist.
1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Leading up to the draft, Evan Mobley found himself in a three-player tier at the top, along with Cunningham and Green. Detroit debated during draft week which of those players to take No. 1, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
It's possible time proves the Pistons made the right call by going with Cunningham, or even that Green emerges as the best of the bunch. Or maybe the future will play out the same way as the present: with Mobley's two-way play separating him from the rest of his draft classmates.
"He's literally a unicorn," Cleveland's All-Star point guard Darius Garland raved, per The Athletic's Kelsey Russo. "Seven-footer, 20-year-old that can do everything."
Mobley might have the best numbers (14.9 points on 50.3 percent shooting, 8.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.6 blocks) and the biggest impact on winning of any rookie. His raw plus/minus paces the rookie class at a towering plus-140. For context, Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves sits second at plus-124, while only two other rookies are clearing plus-60 (Washington Wizards swingman Corey Kispert and New Orleans Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado).
Mobley leads all 2021 draftees with 4.2 win shares and tops the rotation regulars in the draft with a 0.9 box plus/minus and 1.2 value over replacement player.
This is what you call an open-and-shut case, folks. With five-position versatility on defense and handles, vision, finishing and a convincing stroke on offense, Mobley oozes superstar—if not once-in-a-generation—potential out of his (unfairly agile) 7-foot frame. He looks like the runaway Rookie of the Year winner, and while a "for now" disclaimer is technically necessary, it almost seems silly to add it.
Statistics are accurate through the All-Star break and courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
